Hockey On Paper

A Look Again At The Phil Kessel Trade

2010-06-16T10:09:00.001-07:00

We've already posted quite a bit on the subject of the Phil Kessel trade, which backwards narrators everywhere have come out against. Now that the Leafs have ended up with the #2 overall pick, we hear even more flack.

The detractors' argument reads as follows:

Toronto was not a particularly good team coming into the season, and they could have assured themselves they wouldn't be any good with not very much effort. As a result, they passed on an opportunity to get in on the ground floor and get superstars - as we have seen from Chicago and Pittsburgh's recent success, top picks are an enormous advantage that Toronto is failing to capitalize on.

Let's try to understand what's at stake here. If we may borrow a page out of Brian Burke's book, we've decided to rank players based on a fairly easy system. There may be quibbles here and there about the 'system' we're employing, but it's quick and dirty and is much less labor intensive than anything else, which would be an amalgam of statistics that would merely confound the issue.

The system is as follows, from 1 to 6:

6 - HOF level player
5 - All-Star player (i.e. should make multiple All-Star teams)
4 - Above average player
3 - Average player
2 - Fringe NHL player
1 - NHL Bust

The top of the spreadsheet has the first five picks from the last 7 seasons. You might be thinking, 'But, supercilious 'we' who runs this podunk blog, how can you possibly project players from 2008?' You would be right - that's part of the point. That's, in effect, what drafting is. We keep the uncertainty in here to show how inexact a science drafting can be. Some of these '4's will look ridiculous in several years, in all probability. Right-click on the spreadsheet and view it in a new tab:

The average of the top 5 draft picks over the last 7 years is 4.6 - somewhere between an All-Star and an above average player. The average of picks 6-10 over the last 7 years, excluding 2009, is 3.5. So had Toronto finished within 6-10, the player they pick figures to be merely an above-average player most often. Furthermore, we've only rated one player drafted 6-10 an All-Star, and that is Dion Phaneuf, whose All-Stardom is dubious - he could easily be rated a 4 if he repeats his 2009-10 in Toronto. Meanwhile, we rated 15 players All-Star level who were picked 1-5.

On the right of the spreadsheet, we've examined each team who has picked 3 or more times in the top 10 (excluding 6-10 in 2009), and averaged together the 'rank' of player they've gotten. Obviously, Washington and Pittsburgh's players are exceptionally good, and teams like Columbus's players are not so good.

In our next post, we will look at the NHL lottery system, and year-to-year improvements of chronically terrible teams being aided by top draft picks.

Shootout and Overtime-Adjusted Standings

2010-04-11T20:40:00.001-07:00

The NHL playoffs are made even more interesting by the curious notion of deciding regular season games through events that do not happen in the NHL playoffs. The construct of the 4 on 4 overtime and shootout make for more entertaining hockey, but they make a sport with tiny edges even more confounding for prognosticators - we are interested in the betting line on the Phoenix/Detroit series, for instance, as we think Detroit to be a favorite, based on the standings below. We are treating any game that made it to overtime as a tie, with one point for either side.

Adjusted Standings

Eastern Conference

Washington: 43-15-24 - 110 points
New Jersey: 40-27-15 - 95
Buffalo: 35-27-20 - 90
Pittsburgh: 33-28-21 - 87
Ottawa: 34-32-16 - 84
New York Rangers: 34-33-15 - 83
Philadelphia: 35-35-12 - 82
Atlanta: 29-34-19 - 77
Boston: 25-30-27 - 77
Montreal: 24-33-25 - 73

Western Conference

San Jose: 43-20-19 - 105 points
Chicago: 37-22-23 - 97
Vancouver: 41-28-13 - 94
Detroit: 33-24-25 - 91
Phoenix: 31-27-26 - 88
Los Angeles: 32-27-23 - 87

Nashville: 33-29-20 -86
Calgary: 35-32-15 - 85
Colorado: 34-30-18 - 84
St. Louis: 30-32-20 - 80

Criticisms

We note two major criticisms. The first is in lumping both overtime games and shootout results together. We suspect that better teams have larger edges in 4 on 4 overtime, but here they are being penalized for it. We had intended to have teams' overtime records match their records in regulation, but used this method to save time.

The second is that teams' strategies would obviously change drastically were the shootout not so lucrative for certain teams - Phoenix, for example.

Conclusion

The Rangers got screwed, the Wings are probably better than the Coyotes, and the Western Conference is way better than the East.

Power Play Faceoff Percentage and Power Play Percentage

2010-03-28T10:10:00.000-07:00

We wondered recently if there was a correlation between power play faceoff winning percentage, and power play percentages in general - in the tiny sample we have, it appears that there is not. The two right-hand columns are the most relevant. We should also note that we were interrupted in the middle of this work, and some of the faceoff numbers are as of Friday night, whereas the power play information is from Saturday.

The most interesting fact that came out of this is that faceoff percentages on the power play are generally above 50% - in fact, the Eastern Conference is winning faceoffs at a 54.8% rate. We wish we had the capability for isolating defensive-zone faceoff percentages, as we have noticed that teams will make almost no effort to win faceoffs while on the penalty kill in the other two zones. We do however suspect that the additional man allows teams on the power play to be more aggressive in retrieving the puck and winning the faceoff, and likewise causes the other team to be more concerned with defensive positioning than winning the faceoff. We should therefore be wary of using total faceoff percentage to dictate who is the better faceoff man; even strength faceoff percentage is far more likely to be a better determinant.

We also found that power play rank and faceoff rank have a slight negative correlation (-0.23), but we suspect that is due almost entirely to the Capitals and Panthers, whose power play rank and faceoff rank are inverted. We suspect power play faceoff percentage is meaningful, but that the percentage differences are so small that this sample cannot tell us just how much it matters.

Cap Conundrum #1 - The New York Rangers

2010-03-21T15:26:00.000-07:00

The New York Rangers are the league's most difficult team to figure out. Composed of up-and-coming rookies, two legitimate superstars, and quite a few players who used to be good but now are not, the team is at a crossroads, looking like a near-certainty to finish out of the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

Glen Sather has developed a rather remarkable ability to make problems disappear - he managed to convince Montreal that Scott Gomez was worth it (he wasn't), fobbed off Ales Kotalik on a desperate Calgary team (2 points in 15 games), and has dug himself halfway out of his cap troubles. Let's get a look at the next two seasons, cap-wise, for the Rangers:

If you recall from last season, green indicates RFA estimates, and red indicates unrestricted free agency.

The two four hundred pound elephants in the room are Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival - Redden is playing 6th defenseman minutes while making 1st defenseman money, and Rozsival is not much better. The biggest question surrounding the Rangers this off-season is: will ownership allow Glen Sather to bury Wade Redden in the minor leagues? We already assume that his contract is entirely untradeable - a middling season in Ottawa and two terrible ones in New York mean that someone has to be seriously stuck in the past to consider Redden anything more than an average defenseman. Burying Redden puts the Rangers at 45 million dollars going into the off-season, which if the cap stays around where it is, gives them the cash to replace Redden's salary as well as add help up front.

We do not think this rule is cited often enough in mainstream publications regarding the salary cap, but it is of great importance to clubs that are thinking of burying a salary somewhere. After July 1, teams are permitted to go over the salary cap, but only by 10%. If the salary cap is at its present amount, teams will be allowed to have up to $62.48 million in player salary on the cap after July 1. This hamstrings the Rangers somewhat, as they still have Patrick Rissmiller on the books at $1 million per, as well as Redden's $6.5 million - unless they are creative with signing RFA players, and subsequently holding them out of training camp (as New Jersey did in September 2006), or sign some UFA free-agent stragglers after they clear Redden off the cap, the Rangers will not be able to spend completely up to the salary cap during the off-season, although they will then have cap room to make deadline additions.

Regardless, if the Rangers can bury Redden, they will still be able to sign $11 million worth of players. This is not exactly Glen Sather's forte - other than Marian Gaborik, who appears to be a massive bargain, Sather has had little but abject failure on his resume in terms of unrestricted free agents since 2006. This year's free agents appear to be a minefield.

Our Plan For The New York Rangers

Rather than speculate about what will happen to earn imaginary plaudits and attaboys from the blogosphere when the Rangers sign Pavel Kubina to a 3 year deal (or something similar), we will instead detail what we would attempt to do if we were in the Rangers' shoes. We will also imagine ourselves to have the same motivations as the Rangers - i.e. massive 'rebuilding' is out of the question. We're trying to put together a playoff squad for next year.

Let's look at those lines:

Dubinsky-?-Gaborik
Avery-Anisimov-Callahan
Christensen-Drury-?
Brashear-Boyle-Prust

Staal-Girardi
Del Zotto-Rozsival
Redden-Gilroy

Lundqvist
?

First, we call our employer and say whatever he's paying us isn't enough.

Bury Wade Redden - enough said. We definitely have to do this. We cannot possibly have a successful offseason without that contract gone.

Re-sign Vinny Prospal at 2 years/5 million (2.5 per) - Prospal's career has been so strange, what with his pattern of alternating good years with mediocre ones. He has had a career revival in New York, but he is also an over-35 player who is receiving $1 million a season from his former employer - we hope this will keep his price down. We know the price for centers around the NHL is high.

Try like mad to convince Edmonton that a prospect + Michal Rozsival is a good deal for Sheldon Souray - Souray and Rozsival's contracts are of similar length and similar cap hit, but Souray is making $9 million combined for the next two seasons, while Rozsival is making $7 million. Souray has also struggled with injuries while Rozsival's allergy to body contact keeps him in the lineup every night. We cannot say how great the need for teams to save money is - Rozsival's $3 million disparity between cap hit and salary spread over two seasons could save a team that amount of cash. If we can clear Rozsival out, things are looking peachy - we can go hog-wild on the free agent market, as well as go after some of the leftovers coming out of Chicago and other places. Let's assume that we've gotten Souray for Rozsival and a 2nd.

Trade Dan Girardi - Girardi has plateaued in New York, he is no longer used on the power play (with good reason), and we think Matt Gilroy can adequately replace his minutes next season. We hope to get some forward help here - we're not sure who wants Girardi, but probably a team that got shut out of free agency.

Let's get a look at that team now:

Dubinsky-Prospal-Gaborik
Avery-Anisimov-Callahan
Christensen-Drury-?
Brashear-Prust-Boyle

Staal-Gilroy
Souray-?
Del Zotto-?

Lundqvist
?

We've got 12 million with which to paint on this canvas. For the third line, we'd look to acquire Dustin Byfuglien, who despite being overpaid is a big, physical winger of the sort the Rangers need. From free agency, we might look into Alexei Ponikarovsky, whom we expect to be paid between 3 and 3.5 million, or Colby Armstrong, who we expect to be paid around 2 to 2.5 million. Were we feeling truly daffy, we might even make an offer towards Ilya Kovalchuk, to give ourselves two very strong lines. An offer to Kovalchuk would put us in serious cap trouble, however, and is rather unlikely.

On defense, we would look toward younger defensemen who are not as likely to decline. Paul Martin would make an ideal pairing with Marc Staal, and he can likely be had for $5 million per. Dan Hamhuis, Anton Volchenkov, Shaone Morrisonn, and Willie Mitchell are cheaper, defense-first D men that we would be interested in. Our ideal Rangers team looks something like this:

Dubinsky-Prospal-Gaborik
Ponikarovsky-Anisimov-Callahan
Avery-Drury-Christensen
Brashear-Prust-Boyle

Staal-Gilroy
Souray-Hamhuis
Del Zotto-6th D at 1.3 million

Lundqvist
Johnson

The total cost of these 20 players is $54 million.

Conclusion

We don't expect the Rangers to be able to accomplish even half of this, but if they accomplish even half of it, they should be right in the playoff mix next season. The Rangers do have gobs of young players who may be able to contribute in following years - it would be a colossal waste if Sather once again signed aged and past-their-prime skaters who would squander cap room on an otherwise talented squad.

Promise About Upcoming Posts

2010-03-17T11:48:00.000-07:00

We always start off each post now self-deprecating and apologetic, which disappoints us. See? Anyway, we had a sudden inspiration for posts - Cap Conundra For 2010-11 - at least 5 posts about teams in the most cap 'trouble' - 'trouble' defined as the ability to keep the team of the same quality on the ice. We haven't decided if we will revisit Chicago, but we probably will.

When free agency rolls around, we hope to be doing brief thumbs-up and thumbs-down judgments of the various moves. This blog was started with high-minded ambitions, but we are neither Icarus nor Daedalus - our high-minded ambitions are now limited to literary references.

Trade Deadline Primer

2010-03-01T06:29:00.001-08:00

We've wanted to post on here for the last two weeks, but posting about salary caps and waivers during that time would feel rather like using one's cell phone to buy stocks while at church. It's just a tad on the crass side of things. Olympic hockey was quite wonderful, but for NHL GMs it is back to the dirty business of scheming up a trade to fleece one of the other 29 general managers.

Let us take an overview of the NHL starting with Capgeek's daily salary cap tracker, which may be the best contrivance ever for hockey nerds. It informs us that 3 teams in the playoff race currently have no cap space with which to add players: Boston, Philadelphia, and Detroit. We suspect these three will have great difficulty adding talent.

Furthermore, we are unsure which teams will be sellers. Only Toronto, Carolina, Edmonton, and Columbus are truly eliminated from playoff contention. Florida has declared that they are in sell mode. There's a question about teams like St. Louis and Minnesota, who currently sit 4 and 5 points out of the Western Conference race; they may delude themselves into thinking they have a legitimate chance. Still, both are short on talent and have to hop over much more robust squads to make it in. They should both be sellers.

There are some curious factors at play that we think will make for less trading than usual, and not just because many of the typical 'trade deadline' deals already happened in early February.

First, the salary cap is probably staying where it is for the second consecutive year. We've posted about this extensively, and this will mean that young, inexpensive players are worth their weight in ... well, not gold, but some precious metal. Teams jammed up at the salary cap now are probably offered little or no relief for the coming season, plus there's that Chicago bottleneck. This speaks in favor of prices for trade deadline talent falling, because young talent is at a premium. So let's put a check mark in the falling column.

However, with these salary cap jam-ups comes the realization that for some teams, this may be their best year to go for it. New Jersey and Philadelphia are the first two clubs that come to mind. This speaks in favor of prices for deadline talent rising - a check mark in the rising column.

On the other hand - and we'll be using several hands here - the lack of sellers is a mark in the rising price column as well. We have already seen Matt Cullen, a rather average-ish center who can fill a lot of roles, move for both a 2nd round pick AND a decent depth defenseman with some ability to run a power play. Perhaps this is not outrageous compared to last season, when both Ales Kotalik and Dominic Moore moved for a 2nd round pick. Teams need that extra talent to put them over the hump.

In the prices falling column, however, is the issue that some teams simply don't have room to add another player. We saw Calgary attempt to continue adding players at last year's deadline by going with a 20 man roster down the stretch, and it backfired spectacularly, as some nights Calgary was dressing 16 players - we don't expect any team to try this maneuver again. Capgeek lists 9 teams with less than $3.4 million in cap space; these teams may have some difficulty accommodating the higher-priced talent that may be available.

And yet - with attendance generally down around the NHL and revenues falling, a team like St. Louis is not going to want to eat the $1 million + still left on Paul Kariya's contract - they should be desperate to sell this. That's also in the prices falling column.

To recap, here is why prices for trade deadline talent will rise:

Lack of sellers
Panic among Cup contenders

Here is why it will fall:

Need for young talent, league-wide
Lack of able buyers
Teams desperate to unload unsightly contracts

As we wrote this, Jordan Leopold was traded from Florida to Pittsburgh for a 2nd round pick, so the more things change, the more they stay the same.

The Phaneuf Trade And The Stagnant Salary Cap

2010-01-31T17:53:00.000-08:00

We all know that Dion Phaneuf was traded today. Rather than julienne the trade such that we cannot even recognize the pieces, we think it notable that Dion Phaneuf got traded at all. We also think it notable that Phil Kessel got traded. We think it exceptionally notable that both players got traded for absolutely no corporeal hockey players who are actually well-above-average and signed beyond this season. In other words, the Leafs turned nothing into 'something'.

It is a product of the times that we see a player like Phaneuf, once thought totally untouchable and a future Hall of Fame defenseman, traded for 3 around-average players. Phaneuf's value has obviously fallen a great deal - it's not just his 6.5 million dollar salary and his diminishing interest in the defensive zone. There is a specter looming over the NHL, and it's the specter of the possibly falling salary cap. We think it's why Brian Burke has been so aggressive in pursuing both free agents and trades for unwanted commodities instead of just gently failing.

Surely in a rising salary cap era, Phil Kessel, if he demands a trade out of Boston, gets moved for players. Surely in a rising salary cap era, Phaneuf's contract is still somewhat valuable because he's locked up for a long time - when salary caps and salaries rise, the value of long term contracts increase even if the player's on-ice performance does not. Likewise, when salary caps fall, long-term contracts values do too. Phaneuf's play appears to have stagnated - had Calgary waited until next season to try to move Phaneuf, he may have lost all value entirely.

Even with the two deals they've managed today, the Maple Leafs will still have plenty of salary cap room for next season - our estimates give the Leafs 9 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goalies, at a total of $40.85 million. If the salary cap stays where it is, that's a comfortable $15.65 million with which to sign 4 forwards and a defenseman. Burke can still forage for goodies in the Chicago implosion. He can still try to profit off of Edmonton's collapse (we know not how, but he can do it). Toronto can still be a dumping ground for bad contracts next season if teams are struggling financially; they could even sign Ilya Kovalchuk were they so inclined.

The larger question is about Brian Burke's rebuilding strategy - as we have seen throughout NHL history, teams who do poorly for long stretches of time tend to improve. The Quebec Nordiques of the late 80s and early 90s, the Ottawa Senators of the early 90s, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks of this decade - all of these teams were terrible for a good long while, and certainly Brian Burke could have gone that route. We think he chose not to for the reasons above - that impending salary cap problems are making teams antsy about keeping players on long-term contracts, and that Burke can profit from this enough to build a Stanley Cup contender without having to go through a prolonged period of losing. He's not going to get star-level players without giving up a large bounty - certainly this Kessel gambit appears like it may backfire - but with Burke's ability to seemingly have star-level players gifted to him, the Leafs may yet defy accepted NHL wisdom.

Upcoming posts:

Continuation of the previous discussion on placeholder defensemen (got way more intense than we thought it could)

Rookie playoff scoring since the lockout

What Car Company Do You Work For? A Major One.

2010-01-29T11:29:00.001-08:00

Subtitle: Placeholder Contracts and Inexact Science

We were again pondering the Oskars Bartulis contract extension recently penned by the Flyers (and meanwhile, not pondering the thought process that led us to ponder Oskars Bartulis's contract perhaps more than he himself has) - we wondered, given Bartulis's unsightly and team-low -12, what if a team intentionally signed a replacement-level or sub-replacement level player as a placeholder, to then bump him out of the playoff rotation each year through trade? Could this be a good move? There's a lot to consider here. First, let's limit the discussion to defensemen, because defensemen play more minutes than forwards, and there's less of them on a team.

Let us assume that our team is in the NHL elite, or near it - that each season, we have an excellent chance of making the playoffs. Let us call that percentage P%. Let us assume that we have signed a defenseman for 3 seasons, at $700,000, in a league where the minimum is $500,000 and the salary cap is at 56.8 million. Let us assume that he is a replacement-level defenseman and has little chance of improvement - we can assume he gives us 0 wins a season, or we can assume he gives us a range of wins from -1 to 1. For the purposes of this exercise, we suspect that just calling him a 0 win defenseman is best.

Let us assume that each season at the trade deadline, we are able to acquire a defenseman who is either a 1 win or 2 win player. Now recall, with the way the NHL salary cap works, cap room gets 'stored' - it is calculated each day, and for each amount that a team does not use on that particular day, some of that amount is 'saved' in proportion with the remaining season. The trade deadline is 40 days before the end of the regular season (which season usually lasts 180 days), therefore when the trade deadline rolls around, teams have stored up 180/40 times the cap room that they 'actually' have.

So let us return to our original defenseman - Replacement-Level Paulie. He plays for the first 60 or so games of the season at a 0 win level at $700,000. The team makes a trade at the deadline, and acquires League-Average Lou for a 2nd round pick, who's worth 1.5 wins over a full season; over the remaining 22 games, he is worth .40 wins. League-Average Lou's salary is $2,000,000 - the team could acquire him with as little as $450,000 in cap room. Replacement-Level Paulie is now a 7th defenseman.

This discussion is getting rather complicated - we know not where to place the variables. Let us try to simplify the discussion this way by asking the question again in a different way - can making a trade at the deadline every season be better than signing a defenseman? We suspect the discussion is growing too lengthy - we hope to examine this question further tomorrow.

The Greatest Trade Idea Ever!

2010-01-18T19:48:00.000-08:00

We were reading over our blog entry titles here and we realized they were quite milquetoast - they need bombast and verve. Thus our title above, which is sure to be eye-catching.

We read a rumor that purported that Vincent Lecavalier could be headed to the New York Rangers, and we began to turn it over in our mind many times - it makes very much sense. We trust our readership enough to ferret out the reasoning - New York loves big names and is weak down the center and coming out of Tampa Bay have been many rumors of financial hardship. Vincent Lecavalier does have a no-trade clause, but who in the entire NHL lacks the desire to play at the world's most famous arena, for his former coach and with his former linemate?

The impediments to such a deal are New York's staggering lack of assets, and the need for them to clear out the cap room for Vincent Lecavalier's contract, which has 10 years at a $7.5 million dollar cap hit remaining on it. Even if Vincent is unlikely to play the final two years, he likely expects to play the final eight.

We therefore propose this deal:

To New York Rangers

C Vincent Lecavalier (10 yrs/7.5 cap hit)
D Andrej Meszaros (4 yrs/4 cap hit)
LW Stephane Veilleux (0 yrs/ .75 cap hit)
D David Hale (0 yrs/.7 cap hit)

Total Cap Hit: 13.2 M

To Tampa Bay Lightning

D Matt Gilroy (1 yr/1.75 cap hit)
LW Chris Higgins (0 yrs/2.25 cap hit)
RW Ryan Callahan (1 yr/2.3 cap hit)
D Wade Redden (4 yrs/6.5 cap hit)
1st round pick in 2010 or one of Evgeny Grachev/Derek Stepan/Chris Kreider

Total Cap Hit: 12.8 M

What Tampa Gets

Salary Cap Relief, first and foremost. Chris Higgins can be flipped elsewhere - he has been a total bust in New York, but perhaps he lands with a team that can use him (Pittsburgh?). Matt Gilroy and Ryan Callahan are both under team control until July 2012 - Gilroy has excellent physical skills and his underlying numbers suggest that he is a solid defender. Callahan was chosen for Team USA and looks to be a 20 goal RW who can kill penalties and play physically. Wade Redden is another matter - he is not last year's disaster so far, but he's certainly not anything more than average, while he's being paid three times the average. Tampa could buy him out during the off-season, which would cost 2.1 million dollars against the cap for the next 8 years. Bad, yes, but Vincent Lecavalier would have cost 10 million in real dollars (not cap hit) for the next 7. They would also receive a prospect in this deal, something which Tampa seriously struggles to develop - besides star-level players, Tampa has shown no ability to maintain a farm system that can spit out NHL quality players.

Why Should Tampa Move Vincent Lecavalier?

We are always inclined to think that wide variations in shooting percentage, year to year, are fluky and often without identifable cause. Vincent Lecavalier's shooting percentage currently sits at 6.7%, a Jason Blake-like number. However, his Shots On Goal Per Game have fallen in each of the last four seasons, and 112 points in his last 122 games suggest that while Lecavalier is still an excellent player, he may no longer be a superstar. Tampa Bay, if they are in financial difficulties, can not wait around until Lecavalier has exhausted all of his trade value - he will have done so if he has another season where he scores less than a point a game.

What The Rangers Get

Lecavalier, if paired with Marian Gaborik, may rediscover the spark that led him to 52 goals three seasons ago. While the Rangers' depth is skewered somewhat by this deal, that has never stopped them in the past. Meszaros is still rather young and could also improve into his contract on the Rangers' backline. The Rangers do give up some of their precious 'secondary scoring' in this deal, they get back a proven goal man - one whose paltry 11 goals would still rank 3rd on the Rangers right now.

Tampa Bay's New Lineup

Malone-Stamkos-St. Louis
Tanguay-?-Callahan
Higgins-Halpern-Downie
Wright-Konopka-Szczechura

Ohlund-Hedman
Ranger-Redden
Gilroy-Foster

New York Rangers' New Lineup

Avery-Lecavalier-Gaborik
Prospal-Anisimov-Drury
Christensen-Dubinsky-Kotalik
Brashear-Boyle-Lisin

Staal-Girardi
Del Zotto-Meszaros
Hale-Roszival

We are not entirely sure this works - Tampa Bay receiving no centers for one of the top centers in the game may be an impediment, and Brandon Dubinsky may be a better addition to the deal. However, it is certainly something that both sides should consider - it is a trade absolutely made for the New NHL, where player value is secondary to cap flexibility.

A link worth checking out

2010-01-17T21:40:00.001-08:00

Vic Ferrari does some terrific work mathematically, and he runs the impeccable timeonice.com website. His work is always a little dense and takes patience to sort through, but we think this article excellently sums up sabermetric thought in general:

Likelihood and the Way Humans Think

Why Haven't The Devils Had Playoff Success Post-Lockout? Part 2

2010-01-03T08:55:00.001-08:00

Astute commenter Sunny Mehta had this to say regarding New Jersey:

"In the regular season, the Devils gain a lot of marginal goal differential through special teams. You look at their shot attempts at even strength this season - their ratio is basically league average. But their ratio on special teams (i.e. PP shot attempts/PK shot attempts allowed) is amazingly good. That's mostly because they perennially take so few penalties, and partly because their PK is good. Either way, if you buy into the idea that the impact of special teams is lessened in the playoffs, and the impact of even strength is heightened, well that downgrades the Devils from a very good team to a slightly above average team."

We had not researched this in depth, but it strikes us as true. When we went to examine the 2006-07 New Jersey Devils, the number that jumped out at us was the Devils' extreme discipline - the Devils took 271 minor penalties that season, compared to 398 as league average. They drew 367, a difference of 96 power plays. This sounds all well and good, but let us look at the penalty differentials of the other playoff teams in the Eastern Conference versus non-playoff teams:

Playoff Teams: +12
Non-Playoff Teams: -27.4

If we leave out the anomalous Islanders, who were -85 but dragged themselves into the playoffs, the non-Devils playoff teams were +28 in penalty kill and power play differential.

We are going to try something unconventional here, using Bill James' log5 method to estimate one-game winning percentages in baseball. We are going to translate this into power plays drawn/penalties taken. The Devils, for instance, had a 57% 'winning' percentage if we look at (Power Plays/Total Special Teams Situations). So if they played the rotten Florida Panthers, who were -106 and had a percentage of 43%, we would expect the Devils to have a 64% Power Play/Total Special Teams percentage. However, playing the Tampa Bay Lightning, who had a 55% PP/TST, would reduce the Devils' power play expectation to 52% of all special teams situations. These are small potatoes - although it is interesting that New Jersey's playoff power plays for/against was 52%, when its expected value was around 54%.

Digression: We expected that the playoffs would feature better penalty-killing teams, so we used the lazy man's way of adding percentages to come up with these 'averages' of penalty kills:

Playoff Teams: 81.67%
Non-Playoff Teams: 82.2%

Strange. We suspect had we not been lazy that the percentages would be around equal.

Even Strength

Would that we could locate the 2006-07 even strength numbers - we cannot seem to locate the numbers we need to do this properly, with shots on goal (which ferret out a lot of variance). We can, however, express New Jersey's even strength goals for/against as a percentage at even strength:

New Jersey: 50%
Ottawa: 56%

None of these numbers are really getting at why New Jersey may have gotten thrashed, until again we return to the backup goalie question. Let us now consider the question in reverse: if Scott Clemmensen, the Devils' backup in 06-07, played as much as the average Eastern Conference playoff team backup, how many more goals would the Devils have let in? Let us assume that his numbers are as expected, despite the tiny sample size.

Clemmensen would start 22 games and give up 69 goals with his .889 - Brodeur would start 60 games and give up 141. This gives us 210 goals against for New Jersey instead of 187, scuttling their already miniscule goal differential into a negative. The only edge they would have in this instance is their defense and ability to avoid penalty trouble.

Conclusion

The Devils' insistence on playing Brodeur a great deal in 2006-07 masked their deficiencies at even strength, where even despite him they were a breakeven team. In the playoffs they get a reduced advantage from their ability to draw penalties and avoid power plays against because most teams that take a great deal of penalties are out of the playoffs.

Why Haven't The Devils Had Playoff Success Post-Lockout? Part 1, 2005-06

2009-12-28T14:15:00.000-08:00

Two things need to be noted before the discussion commences:

First - We tend to eschew topics on the Devils, in part because we are self-confessed fans of the Devils, and think it incalculably gauche to turn what is supposed to be a league-wide blog into a bitchfest about fan minutiae - there are certainly other places for that.

Second - We are proceeding in full knowledge that we are committing the fallacy of post hoc ergo propter hoc - we are not saying these are the complete, unvarnished causes, nor are we laying bare any distinct truth about Devils strategy, or personnel, or any such thing as this. We are merely suggesting why the Devils have only two playoff series wins in the previous four seasons, not suggesting that it was expected or (god forbid) necessary that New Jersey has only these modest achievements. We are merely noting possible causes for why this *may* have been the expected outcome.

We whipped up a little chart here whose results were of great interest to us:

Some explanation is needed. The first column are the playoff teams from the Eastern Conference in 2005-06. The second column is the number of points they got. The third column is their goal differential as listed in the NHL standings. The fourth column is their goal differential, with all overtime goals and shootout 'goals' removed. The fifth column is the most interesting one - it is the goal differential with overtime removed, and if the best goalie on the team had started 73 games, and if the second best one had started 9 games, as Martin Brodeur and Scott Clemmensen did in 2005-06. We used their 2005-06 save percentage to determine which goaltender was better. As you can see, the Devils now rank last out of the Eastern Conference playoff teams in goal differential. Why would we do this? Backup goalies do not generally play in the playoffs barring injury. The correlation between backup goalie success and playoff success would seem to be minimal at best. Yes, wags, we have noted the irony of calling Cam Ward the 'backup' when he won the Conn Smythe Trophy during this season.

Now surely we can find many, many fallacies with the above statistic. Let us address four of those here - we still do not think it alters the major point, which is that the Devils are overrated.

Refutation The First: Since the statistic merely measures goals against, we are creating a hypothetical league in which more goals are scored than are given up.

Rebuttal: True enough. However, the statistic is merely meant to be illustrative, not definitive. We are not saying that the Devils were the worst playoff team in the Eastern Conference, just that they were not likely one of the best.

Refutation The Second: We are assuming that goaltenders play the same on short or no rest than they do on much rest. How can we assume this?

Rebuttal: Once again, we are not saying that teams should start their starting goalie at an 8 to 1 ratio. We are just looking at the league if that were the case, and if goaltender performance were not affected.

Refutation The Third: The Devils had a vastly different roster at the beginning of the season than they did at the finish - they began the year mediocre and ended it on a 11 game winning streak. Shouldn't we count that for something?

Rebuttal: Sure, it should. The Devils excised Vladimir Malakhov, Alex Mogilny, Dan McGillis, Darren Langdon, Krys Oliwa, and Sean Brown in favor of Brad Lukowich, Patrik Elias, Ken Klee, Jason Wiemer, Cam Janssen, and Tommy Albelin. The addition of Elias was likely worth 5 points alone. However, even so, their goal differential was not remarkable.

Refutation The Fourth: If we excise overtime results, shouldn't that change goal differentials and the way that teams play the third period?

Rebuttal: Once again, questioner, you are right, it likely would, but not in any significant way. Most of these concerns are minor, and we will continue to point them out when we go on to the 2006-07 season.

There are many more points that can be raised, all of them likely fair criticisms. The conclusion, however, is still clear - the Devils, while they do get the benefits of home ice and playing ostensibly weaker opponents, get little other benefit in the playoffs from playing Martin Brodeur as much as they do.

The Chicago Situation - What's an Eltdown?

2009-12-13T21:35:00.000-08:00

Much has been written about the fact that the Chicago Blackhawks have to move salary next season. We are not sure that people recognize the magnitude of the salaries the Blackhawks have to move. Here is our view of the Chicago situation, with estimated salaries in green:

That's 66.5 million dollars to 20 players. Let's get rid of Brent Sopel, making it 64.2 million dollars to 19 players. If the salary cap stays the same at 56.8 million dollars, that's 7.6 million dollars' worth of salary the Hawks have to excise.

Important thing to remember: Just deleting salaries doesn't make any sense, since the Hawks have to fill them in with at least a league minimum player.

One scenario

Subtract Dustin Byfuglien (2,500,000)
Subtract Cam Barker (2,580,000)
Subtract Andrew Ladd (1,400,000)
Subtract Tomas Kopecky (700,000)
-----------------------------------
Total Subtracted $7.18 M

Yet we are still short here, even if we assume that all of these players are replaced by players making the league minimum. We think more drastic measures will have to be taken, these involving Brian Campbell or Cristobal Huet.

Who Might Want Either of These Players? For all of the talk about how poor Campbell has been, and his 7.1 million dollar salary is an albatross, he still provides a solid power play quarterback and is not particularly terrible at even strength. Regardless, there are few places that could just stick him on to their team with no repercussions. One such place is Anaheim, who may be losing their big minutes man Scott Niedermayer. Other places could emerge (e.g. Minnesota) depending on how this summer's free agency shakes out.

Cristobal Huet makes too much money, but there's one born every minute with goaltenders - teams like St. Louis, San Jose, and Washington may be interested in adding a goaltender like Huet.

Another Scenario

Repeat above
Add Patrick Sharp (3.9 M)
-------------------
Total (14.1M)

Let's see what that team looks like:

Versteeg-Toews-Kane
Brouwer-Bolland-Hossa
?-?-?
Eager-Fraser-?

Keith-Seabrook
Campbell-Hjalmarsson
?-?

Huet
Niemi

The Blackhawks would have 6.7 million dollars to fill 7 holes. Let us add these players:

LW Kyle Beach (875K)
D Jordan Hendry (600K)

This leaves us with 5.225 million to fill 5 holes. If we can add two players at league minimum salary, we're left with 4.225 million to fill 3 holes - plenty of money, and very likely the Hawks would have acquired these players in their trades to get rid of 4 bona fide NHL players. However, it's a team very light on depth - two injuries to top players and this team is a wasteland. We think the Hawks will have to move or bury Campbell or Huet in order to maintain competitive, with Brian Campbell tops on the list. We think it's possible that someone would acquire him on regular waivers, and we think it's possible that Chicago would intentionally expose him to re-entry waivers; doing so would allow them to keep one of Byfuglien, Versteeg, or Barker.

Summary

Chicago likely has to somehow dispose of Brian Campbell or Cristobal Huet in order to save enough money under the cap to retain some depth on their third line. Unless the salary cap goes up, it's going to be a skeleton crew all season long, and it's unclear when Chicago will get relief.

The Second Contract

2009-12-08T07:50:00.001-08:00

We were poking around our favorite website these days, capgeek.com, when we noticed an obscure contract - defenseman Oskars Bartulis of the Philadelphia Flyers and his 13 lifetime NHL games was signed to a three year, 1.8 million dollar deal. Why would Oskars Bartulis sign this contract, and why would the Flyers offer it to him?

Bartulis's side

The contract is one-way, so Bartulis is guaranteed that money. Paradoxically, the less a fringe sort of player like Bartulis makes, the better it is for him, because he can be in the NHL without harming anyone's salary cap. The third year is probably not best for him, but that was likely a condition of having a one-way deal despite barely playing in the NHL.

Philadelphia's side

From Philadelphia's end, it's low risk, moderate reward. When a team is up against the salary cap, it needs players like Oskars Bartulis who can be a 6th or 7th defenseman for a small amount of money. If Bartulis fails to develop in Philadelphia, someone will probably take the contract off their hands, as the standard price for back-pairing defensemen in UFA seems to be around 1.2 to 1.5 million.

So with this sort of thing in mind, we present great second contracts - not so much of the Zach Parise or Sidney Crosby variety, but of little moves that really just help a team out.

D Jonathan Ericsson, Red Wings, $2.7 million/3 years - People may have balked at the Wings signing a player with 8 NHL games' experience to a three-year deal in 2008, but that's why people aren't Ken Holland. While Ericsson has not had a great start to the year, he still has 10 points in 27 games. If Nicklas Lidstrom retires, expect Ericsson to get big minutes on next year's Wings team, all for the low, low price of $900,000 a year.

D Andy Greene, Devils, 1.45 million/2 years - Devils fans were perplexed when Lou Lamoriello non-tendered Andy Greene, but even more so when they signed him to a 2 year deal a day later. Greene had shown very little in his 129 NHL games before this season. However, he has rewarded New Jersey's faith by becoming the most improved player in the NHL, and that second year is looking mighty valuable.

D Alex Goligoski, Pittsburgh, 5.5 million/3 years - Goligoski played 2 games in last year's playoffs, and was barely put on the ice - so why did Ray Shero sign him for 3 years? Because he knows that anyone playing with Crosby and Malkin gets a huge lift in goals and assists. Goligoski has 16 points in 21 games - the Penguins could have saved some coin this season lowballing Goligoski, but would have had to pay much more later.

We think it is no accident that it is only defensemen on this list. Forwards seem to be more easily evaluated, and they peak earlier as well. There are lots of great second contracts out there, but we wanted to emphasize the overlooked ones. A few Oskars Bartulis types, and one's team can afford the superstar that sends them over the top.

Upcoming Posts

2009-12-07T12:01:00.001-08:00

I've been ignoring this blog lately, but I assure you I have not abandoned it.

Things I hope to post on in the next few days:

- Great Second Contracts
- The Chicago Blackhawks' Situation
- How the Canadian Dollar affects Michal Rozsival

Further down the road:

- Playoff Windows

Revisiting the Summer of 2007 (Part 4, Conclusion)

2009-11-19T15:27:00.001-08:00

We had intended to deconstruct every major contract that was signed, but we decided that was pedantic and boring.

So, without further ado - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly, with Before and After stats; the Before represents their stats from 2005-06 to 2006-07, the After is 2007-08 and 2008-09.

The Good

Brian Rafalski, Detroit, 5 years, 30 million dollars

Before: 164 GP, 14 G, 90 A, 104 P, +31, 68 PIM
After: 151 GP, 23 G, 91 A, 114 P, +44, 54 PIM

Comments: We thought Rafalski's contract was absurd, but right now it stands out as clearly the best value. He is 36 years old, and Mike Babcock seems to be cutting back on his ice time, but Rafalski has been everything he was promised to be - a reliable two-way defenseman who can run a power play.

Todd White, Atlanta, 4 years, 9.5 million dollars

Before: 138 GP, 31 G, 52 A, 83 P, +7, 42 PIM
After: 156 GP, 36 G, 74 A, 110 P, -21, 60 PIM

Comments: White was bad in year 1, but in Year 2 he settled in as Kovalchuk's center. He's off to a slow start this season, but at 2.375 million per season, he can't be all bad.

The Bad

Scott Gomez, New York Rangers, 7 years, 51.5 million

BEFORE: 154 GP, 46 G, 98 A, 144 P, +15, 84 PIM
AFTER: 158 GP, 32 G, 96 A, 128 P, +1, 96 PIM

Comments: It's tempting to put this in the ugly column, considering the Rangers front-loaded his contract and ended up paying $18 million to Gomez, but Gomez has at least stayed healthy, and someone wanted his contract this past off-season.

Dainius Zubrus, New Jersey Devils, 6 years, 20.4 million

Before: 150 GP, 47 G, 70 A, 117 P, -16, 148 PIM
After: 164 GP, 28 G, 50 A, 78 P, +8, 107 PIM

Comments: Everyone knew that Zubrus's production was due to Alexander Ovechkin being his linemate in Washington, but New Jersey didn't know just how much of it was Alex's doing. The Devils are paying almost twice as much as the average salary for what is essentially an average player.

The Ugly

Sheldon Souray, Edmonton Oilers, 5 years, 27 million

Before: 156 GP, 38 G, 65 A, 103 P, -39, 251 PIM
After: 107 GP, 26 G, 37 A, 63 P, -6, 134 PIM

Comments: Souray has lived up to his contract when healthy - the problem has been his health. The 2000s answer to Al Iafrate has already missed 16 games this season in addition to the 56 he missed in 2007-08. Neither Iafrate nor Kevin Hatcher nor Jeff Brown came to a good end - we hope that Souray can avoid that fate.

Jason Blake, Toronto Maple Leafs, 5 years, 20 million

Before: 158 GP, 68 G, 58 A, 126 P, +1, 94 PIM
After: 160 GP, 40 G, 75 A, 115 P, -6, 68 PIM

Comments: We may be remiss in putting Blake here, but we feel that Jason Blake's sort of player is particularly value-less, and the fact that Blake turned 36 before the beginning of the season will make for a bad end. The Leafs signed up for a goal scorer and have gotten 7 power play goals out of Blake in 2 seasons. Further compounding their error is the fact that they were nowhere close to a championship when they signed Blake.

Special mention goes to Michael Nylander, who was finally kicked out of North America this season.

This concludes our section on the 2006-07 Summer. We did not break down everything we would've liked to, but we are at least finished. Or maybe?

Revisiting the Summer of 2007, Part 2b and 3

2009-11-09T20:43:00.000-08:00

We refer to a Part 2b in the title because we were remiss in not mentioning this little fact - namely that several teams had players undergoing Indian summers with regard to the end of their careers.

New York Rangers: Jaromir Jagr (35), Brendan Shanahan (38)
New Jersey Devils: Martin Brodeur (35)
Colorado Avalanche: Joe Sakic (38)
Toronto Maple Leafs: Mats Sundin (36)
Detroit Red Wings: Nicklas Lidstrom (37)
Anaheim Ducks: Scott Niedermayer (34), Teemu Selanne (37)

All of these players will go to the Hall of Fame, and most of them were still playing near a Hall of Fame level at the time. As franchise players age, teams get more and more panicky about winning while they are still in the fold. Baseball Prospectus did a study that teams who lose franchise players to retirement are usually slightly worse five years after that player leaves than the year after - the basic claim being that the cupboard has been made barren and a lot of bad contracts are left around. All of these teams made a significant commitment during that off-season.

Part 3: Youth

This claim is a little more esoteric, and we are not sure that we have the chops to go into it with as much detail as we'd like. What we'd like to claim is that there are significant talent gaps in the NHL due to the variability of the draft. We'd also like to claim that due to the nature of the historically great 2003 thread, many franchises thought their prospects/young players were better than normal, failing to compare them to the rest of the league.

Here is a list of players drafted in a particular year playing in the NHL in 2006-07. We compiled this list somewhat haphazardly, so there is a margin of error of +/- 3 or so. We still think it drives the point home.

1994: 32
1995: 29
1996: 34
1997: 34
1998: 46
1999: 31
2000: 42
2001: 54
2002: 43

This should be expected. There should be a bulge outward towards 24 and 25 year old players as projects get one last go in the NHL to see if they can hack it before going overseas or being labeled as AHL lifers. Here is the number of players playing in the NHL right now drafted in 2003 and 2004:

2003: 71
2004: 56

Our contention would therefore be that an influx of younger talent into the league actually raised the price of the free agent players because of A: the relative scarcity of players of their talent level around their draft year(s) and B: the increase in salary cap room that entry level and pre-arbitration contracts create.

A third thing that we have not the room to discuss is the buyouts of contracts - less of a % of the league's salary cap room was occupied by bad contracts because of the ability to buy-out bad ones in the summer of 2005. We think this had some effect, though what effect is negligible, as many of these contracts would have expired in 2007 had they been allowed to complete.

A fourth thing that we have not discussed is the falling free agency age, which would then press more players into being unrestricted free agents than a static free agency age. This seems self-evident, so we need not discuss it further.

These dual forces, the old and the young, both pressed on general managers to create the maelstrom of awful that was the 2006-07 off-season. Next, we will try to tackle the difficulty of adjusting for the 2005-06 year, and look at before and after snapshots of some contracts.

Revisiting The Summer of 2007 (Part 2)

2009-11-08T20:18:00.001-08:00

This next part may feel a little bit like the ending to Clue: The Movie as we break down where all of these teams were at. We do want to explore the motivations of each team, however. One cannot simply castigate a team for a poor contract without exploring that contract's context - a middling team signing an average player for well above market is far more egregious than a team on the cusp of a championship trying to sign that missing piece. One of our main tenets here at Hockey on Paper is that barring a massive windfall, teams must pick the years where they wish to contend.

Philadelphia: In between trips to the Conference Finals in 2004 and 2008, people may forget that Philadelphia was an absolutely atrocious team in 2007. Strangely enough, Philadelphia was not in a particularly poor position - they had lots of assets on the team as well as promising young players. They also had a ton of salary cap room. Philadelphia figured they could rebuild the team in just one season, and they managed to pull it off.

New York Rangers: The Rangers were probably the most interesting team. Coming out of the lockout, they were thought to be dead in the water with a moribund and disinterested Jaromir Jagr, Kevin Weekes starting in net, and a cast of thousands at defense. Young goaltender Henrik Lundqvist proved to be outstanding, and instead the Rangers were a playoff team; only a late-season collapse kept the club from winning the division. The team brought aboard free agents Brendan Shanahan, Matt Cullen, and Aaron Ward, and managed to make the 2nd round of the playoffs after a furious late-season climb into the playoff picture. Glen Sather was left in a bind - he had Jagr, but Jagr only had one more year on his contract and had declined sharply from 2006. He had Michal Nylander as Jagr's center - could Nylander continue to produce as a 1st line center after his 35th birthday?

Edmonton: Edmonton was in an odd position. A terminally mediocre club since the early 90s, they managed to make the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006, only to endure the Chris Pronger fiasco and finish out of the playoffs in 2007, scoring less than 200 goals. GM Kevin Lowe had traded captain Ryan Smyth to Long Island, and needed to come away with hope for the future.

Colorado: Colorado still had Burnaby Joe Sakic, who would turn 38 over the summer, but who led the team with 100 points. The club itself outscored its opposition by 21 but despite a late season push they failed to make the playoffs. With the superb play of youngsters Wojtek Wolski and Paul Stastny, Colorado saw themselves getting right back into the Western Conference hunt with a few key additions.

Los Angeles: The Kings were desperately terrible, had cap room, and hadn't made the playoffs since 2002.

This may be pedantic, but what we are trying to establish here is that there were motivations for these signings, and with $6.3 million in cap room coming available, most teams were gaining room to breathe.

The next post will be a speculation regarding the gaps in talent between certain draft years and the influence this may have had on free agency in 2007.

Revisiting The Summer of 2007 (Part 1)

2009-11-08T08:57:00.000-08:00

We had intended to write some flowing preamble to this post, but writer's block intervened on word #1 - it was going to be a grandiose setting of the scene in 2007 with pop culture references and hip ironies. Let us focus on hockey alone and note that the summer of 2007 in the NHL was quite an interesting time. We are positing that the teams who did not participate in the orgy of 2007 FA signings are fundamentally more healthy teams than those who did - those whose cap outlook is especially murky were the largest participants.

2006-2007 were boom times once again for the NHL, as the salary cap rose by 6.3 million dollars. Any major market team with expiring contracts could load up on shiny new ones.

Let us revisit what was available - this link here shows us what was available, but let's comb from that the best players. Let us also remember that the free agency age and years of service for free agency was falling - any player who was 28 years old or had 7 NHL seasons became a unrestricted free agent in 2007.

Centers: Eric Belanger, Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, Dainius Zubrus, Scott Gomez, Viktor Kozlov, Michael Nylander, Michal Handzus, Robert Lang, Todd White

Wings: Bill Guerin, Paul Kariya, Todd Bertuzzi, Ryan Smyth, Jason Blake

Defensemen: Andy Sutton, Sheldon Souray, Brian Rafalski, Tom Poti, Tom Preissing, Cory Sarich, Roman Hamrlik, Brad Stuart, Darryl Sydor, Mathieu Schneider

Goalies: None of significance

Recall also that Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen had already inked contracts with the Philadelphia Flyers - Timonen signed for $38 million over 6 years, and Hartnell signed for $25.2
million over 6 years.

In Part 2, we will examine the situation of some of the teams who participated in the orgy. The key word is 'uncertainty'.

Two Early Season Trends

2009-11-07T07:50:00.000-08:00

We have been absent these last few weeks - we have been more concerned with the conclusion of the baseball season. Now that that has ended (in glorious triumph), we are free to contemplate the nobler sport of hockey.

The beginning of the season is so difficult for the numbers-oriented person - he is quick to seize on trends, but then must chastise himself to remember the mantra of sample size.

We Still Think, In the Face of Seemingly All Evidence, that the Colorado Avalanche will struggle to Make the Playoffs

All the rabbit's feet, lucky pennies, or horseshoes lodged in one's own posterior cannot explain what the Colorado Avalanche are doing this season. The Avalanche are being outshot by 129, yet they have 17 more goals than their opposition.

Now one may say - but Triumph, are not the Avalanche so far ahead that they only need coast into the postseason? Perhaps. The average amount of points to get into the Western Conference playoffs since the lockout is 93.25, or 1.137 points per game. The Avalanche need only average 1.03 points per game the rest of the way. 1.03 points per game averaged out to a season is 85 points, a threshold which only nine teams failed to make last season. So - we cannot say that the Avalanche are an underdog to do this, especially in light of Craig Anderson's play. We're going to say that anyway.

The Carolina Hurricanes are the anti-Avalanche

The bags under Paul Maurice's eyes probably have their own bags at this point, as the Hurricanes have lost 11 straight. We still maintain they are not a poor team. They are outshooting their opposition by 20 - by itself, this number does not mean very much, but their 6.3% team shooting percentage is unsustainable. Expect the Hurricanes to return to mediocrity - although alack for them, this will likely not mean a playoff berth. The average Eastern Conference 8th seed has gotten 92.75 points. For Carolina to reach 92 points, they will have to play 105 point hockey from here on out - something which only five teams did last season.

With both of these examples, we have to be careful in the interpretation of 'regression to the mean'. The word to be emphasized in that common phrase is 'mean'. There is no reason why Colorado's fortunes should reverse - they should merely sag. Anderson's performance will get worse and the team's shooting percentage will decrease, but these numbers will not flip-flop. Likewise with Carolina. Both are probably around 90 to 95 point clubs - but because of the viccisitudes of Fate and October results, one will glory in April hockey while one cowers in April golf.

You Showed Hustle, That's Why It Was So Hard To Cut You

2009-10-14T07:16:00.000-07:00

When Homer Simpson heckles Ned Flanders' Pee-Wee football coaching ability, Marge scolds him, saying "It's easy to criticize!". Homer adds, "Fun, too." When Homer actually does become the coach, he is terrible at it, and the team promptly loses every game.

It is with this in mind that we begin our criticism of Puck Prospectus, a site for which we had such high hopes when it began. The site is certainly doing some very good work, but it's also pointing out some dangerously stupid things.

Here's an example of an egregious error in a writeup on shootouts - the author writes, "Additionally, the Sharks should give Malhotra [lifetime 1 for 2 shooter] a chance to prove whether he’s got the skill or not." This is an absurd claim for two reasons. First, teams practice shootouts, so in this case, the coaches likely (not certainly) have a much larger sample from which to draw. Second, a simple application of the binomial theorem and some playing around with numbers will show that 1 for 2 in shootouts has absolutely no significance. If we assume Dany Heatley's shootout % to be true (which it likely is not), after 2 attempts, he will have a goal 26% of the time. There is no reason to think Manny Malhotra is at all skilled at the shootout, any more than Marek Malik is the greatest shootout artist of all time.

Or how about this article on age and winning which confuses cause and effect, and makes little mention of players' roles on the team when factoring in average age?

Or the obsession of one writer with hockey players' heights and weights, taking to task teams for drafting big defensemen high in the 1st round during the 90s, as though there were any doubt left that these were not good moves?

What supposedly sets apart 'sabermetrics' from traditional methods of observation is rigor, and far too often Puck Prospectus lacks it. We hold out hope that these are merely preliminary observations, and that the writers are also finding their way.

The Milan Lucic Deal - Three Wrong Ideas

2009-10-13T09:22:00.000-07:00

We like to estimate contracts here at Hockey On Paper, it's part of why we started this in the first place. Sure, lots of places can give you cap numbers, but without estimating RFA contracts, the exercise is useless. Some teams are far more jammed up than others, but one wouldn't know it just looking at the raw numbers.

We estimated Milan Lucic would make 2.5 million next season. Our estimations are far from scientific, although we did nail some pretty well (and were grossly off on some, e.g. Lucic). The contract length obviously makes a difference here - the longer the contract, the higher the price. However, the Bruins ate up none of Lucic's UFA seasons with this deal, and only two arbitration-eligible years. This is a riddle wrapped inside an enigma. However, we think we have finally established why the Bruins paid Milan Lucic 4.1 million a season over the next 3 years, which is more than Travis Zajac, David Krejci, Jordan Staal, Derick Brassard, and Dave Bolland, not to mention well over Brandon Dubinsky and Drew Stafford. It is based on one of three assumptions, all of which in our opinion are grossly incorrect.

Assumption #1: Milan Lucic will grow into a power forward in the Cam Neely/Rick Tocchet/Brendan Shanahan mold

Looking at his 19 goals last season - why not? Here's why not - Lucic had 97 shots on goal last season. Here's the other forwards who had around 97 shots on goal: Jeff Tambellini, Frederik Sjostrom, Steven Reinprecht, Tim Jackman. Lucic is obviously 20 and those people are not, but for Lucic to sustain his 17.5% shooting percentage from last season would be astounding. Lucic will have to shoot the puck a lot more to score 30 goals in a season, and so far Lucic only has 4 shots on goal in 5 games this season. We do not know when shots on goal converge - i.e. when a player's 'true' shots on goal/game rate can be established - but we certainly think it happens far quicker than goals or assists converge. The numbers indicate so far that Lucic is not getting better at shooting, and therefore not better at scoring.

Assumption #2: Milan Lucic does so many other things - hit, fight, dig pucks out of the corner, screen goalies - that he doesn't need to score goals.

We can believe that Lucic is valuable in this regard, but how many more hits and fights does he have to have to be more valuable than Travis Zajac or Jordan Staal? We understand that we are being slightly dishonest here, in that Staal and Zajac signed this past off-season and technically Lucic signed in the off-season of 2010, but RFA contract inflation does not figure to be that high. We just find it very hard to believe that the other things Lucic does add up to the 10 missing goals scored.

Assumption #3: Milan Lucic was signed early so that the GM could atone for trading away Phil Kessel

This is a meta-hockey consideration, obviously. We don't reject it, but we wonder why the panic to lock up Milan Lucic. He does not have great offensive stats in junior hockey. He does not have great offensive stats in the NHL. What really gets a general manager out of a PR bind is winning - Milan Lucic's contract will impede the Boston Bruins from winning in future seasons.

Statistical Changes We'd Like To See

2009-10-07T07:50:00.000-07:00

Maybe we just don't know the right places to look, but our main source of statistics beyond the norm is NHL.com. While it keeps track of important stuff, one has to go find the important stuff.

Faceoff Percentage should be listed with every player

Faceoff percentage is an important statistic - it's been kept track of for a long time - why is it not one of hockey's basic stats? Because defensemen don't take faceoffs?

Time on Ice should be listed with every player

Thankfully, hockey-reference has begun to do this. Not listing time on ice is like not listing at-bats in baseball. How can we know how good a player is if we don't know how much he plays?

Assists should be broken down into primary, secondary, power play, even strength

We don't pretend to know the value of a primary assist versus a secondary, or a power play assist versus an even strength one. We do suspect that many secondary assists on the power play are not of paramount importance.

Penalties in Minutes should be broken down into major and minor

To make another terrible baseball analogy, having PIMs done the way it is done is like just having hits without singles, doubles, triples, etc. A game misconduct to a fringe player is probably not as detrimental as a single minor penalty, yet one is listed as far more penalty minutes than the other.

We don't expect to see these changes soon, and at least NHL.com has most of these statistics readily available - it just takes some digging.

On The Fallacy of Probablistic Thinking

2009-09-29T08:02:00.000-07:00

Let us imagine that we are brilliant, and came up with a way besides the classic Hockey League Simulator 2 to simulate 10,000 2009-10 seasons, from start to finish (in all of them, Marian Gaborik gets injured). Let us imagine these simulations are pretty darned accurate - the Gaborik injuries are a dead giveaway that they are.

Now we have a list of teams who've won the Stanley Cup in these 10,000 simulations - let us look at their average playoff wins. Someone like Detroit might have 9 or so, someone like the Islanders might have 0.1 or less. These numbers, however, are inherently meaningless when imagining who's going to win the Stanley Cup simply because some team has to win 16 games in the playoffs.

There's a lot of luck in the playoffs - it's rather improbable that despite the fact that Detroit and Pittsburgh were likely the two most talented teams in each of the last two seasons that both teams made it to the Stanley Cup Finals. When wondering about whether they'll repeat that feat, citing the above is not particularly important - it is certainly improbable, but still more probable than most Stanley Cup Finals pairings.

The Kessel Deal, Part 2 - The Boston Side and Why Toronto Loses

2009-09-22T08:31:00.000-07:00

Boston GM Peter Chiarelli says Phil Kessel wanted to be traded in July - he came away with an excellent trade for a number of reasons.

He Got More Than An Offer Sheet

2 1sts and a 2nd is significantly more than a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

According to TSN, 2010 is a 'strong draft'

We don't pay much attention to TSN grading a future NHL draft - after all, they air the draft. However, the Bruins now have 5 picks in the top 2 rounds - 2 of their own, 2 from Toronto, and 1 from the Lightning.

Boston doesn't 'need' a player back

Boston's got some solid prospects all the way around the organization - that is why they felt confident enough to deal someone like Martins Karsums to the Lightning. Mikko Lehtonen could be on the Bruins in October, and he's got 20 goal potential. The Bruins have lots of right wing depth - while Kessel is an outstanding player, and he will be missed, they can do without him.

Marc Savard can now be retained

This is far from a guarantee, but Savard is deserving of a large pay raise commensurate with players like Daniel Briere. The Bruins owe 38 million to 10 players next season, so it may be a stretch to fit him in, but with Kessel on board, there was literally no chance of them retaining both players.

Boston has assets with which to rid themselves of bad contracts

Maybe Boston gets rid of Michael Ryder to make room for Marc Savard - but who wants Michael Ryder at that salary? Why of course no one - but with a 1st round pick bundled along with it, maybe Boston gets back a decent prospect.

Boston sells Kessel at the peak of his value

While Kessel is exceptionally talented, and the Boston Bruins as well, we are skeptical they could maintain their prodigious even-strength scoring ability. If Kessel scored 30 goals in 82 games next season, his trade value would certainly diminish.

Boston has the ability to deal for Ilya Kovalchuk

Outlandish idea, but if both sides saw fit to do this, Boston could certainly make it happen. It would happen at the trade deadline, but it would give Boston the most dynamic scorer outside of Alexander Ovechkin.

Why Toronto Loses

Brian Burke may be overplaying his hand - by loading up on salaries now, he may be losing out on opportunities to raid the Chicago Blackhawks next off-season, as well as all the teams that are going to be dumping legitimate NHL talent to get under the salary cap. By not offer-sheeting Kessel, Burke drops a 2011 1st round pick, something which is no doubt valuable. While Burke may think he can sign undrafted free agents to make up for that, there are only so many of those players around. If Kessel is only a 30 goal scorer in Toronto, it seems this gambit is a massive failure.

Phil Kessel - The Toronto Side And Why Boston Loses

2009-09-19T08:35:00.000-07:00

"That plane to Toronto's leaving, and if you're not on it, you'll regret it. Maybe not now, but soon, and for the rest of your life." Brian Burke, to Wade Arnott, Phil Kessel's agent.

Okay, we made that exchange up. What is true is that Phil Kessel was traded for three draft picks - a 1st in 2010, a 2nd in 2010, and a 1st in 2011. This seems insane, and is insanely complicated, so we're going to examine it in two posts - this one looks at why Toronto 'won' the deal and Boston lost it. So, without further ado:

The 2010 Draft Is Weak

We fully admit we don't keep up on draft classes - in fact, the reason we don't is because when we were young, we were taught that the 1999 draft class was exceptionally strong, only to have it turn out to be one of the weakest in NHL history. However, if the 2010 draft is weak in the way that the 1996, 1999, 2001, and 2007 drafts were weak, a 1st round pick that will likely be in the range between 10th overall and 20th overall does not have a great deal of value. 1st round picks are exceedingly valuable when they might render players that provide excessive cap savings in Year 3 of their entry-level contract - weaker players obviously provide less value, but they also take longer to reach the NHL.

Brian Burke Has a Boatload Of Assets

Toronto has NINE UFA Players. NINE. (Imagine this as Principal Rooney in Ferris Bueller's Day Off). None are particularly valuable besides Alexei Ponikarovsky, but we theorize their value may be like this at the deadline:

Alexei Ponikarovsky - 2nd and 5th
Lee Stempniak - 3rd
Mike Van Ryn - 3rd (perhaps 2nd)
Matt Stajan - 3rd
Garnet Exelby - 3rd (or 4th)

Now, Toronto may have no interest in trading these players at the deadline, especially if it is in the playoff race. However, it shows that Burke is capable of recouping some of the assets he lost.

UFAs Are Expensive And Don't Exist

Phil Kessel is a 'pure scorer', possibly in the elite. Let us look at the list of elite UFA 'pure scorers' coming available in the next 3 seasons:

Ilya Kovalchuk

Gambling that Ilya Kovalchuk comes available and wants to sign for a penny less than what Marian Gaborik received is a fool's wish. Kovalchuk would likely command $8+ million - if the salary cap falls, there are not many teams that can afford that. Plus there is always the worry that Ilya Kovalchuk returns to Russia.

You Have To Choose What Year You Will Contend

Besides out-of-nowhere success of the sort the Bruins had this past season, under the salary cap one has to judge which years they think they can be a Stanley Cup contender and plan accordingly for that season. The Leafs must be circling 2012-13 - all of their onerous contracts (Blake, Finger) will have ended. Nazem Kadri's contract may slide to begin in 2010-11 - this puts that all-important 3rd year of his entry-level contract right there. 2011-12 may also be important - Luke Schenn is not arbitration-eligible that year, and Burke may be able to bury the Finger and Blake contracts in the minors if he so chooses.

Toronto Has Shown They Can Attract Undrafted Talent

The NHL draft isn't the only place to acquire cheap contracts - undrafted free agents are important as well. With the Leafs signing 3 of these this past season, they clearly think they are running the kind of organization that makes players want to sign up. New Jersey has certainly made up for draft mistakes by sprinkling their lineup with undrafted free agents - Toronto will look to do so as well.

Why Didn't Burke Sign Kessel To An Offer Sheet?

Simple - Boston might've matched. And if the number was made high enough that Boston wouldn't match, the cap savings that Kessel provides are gone. Furthermore, Kessel may have refused to report to Boston if they matched, causing all sorts of problems.

Why Boston Lost

These draft picks are not quite lead balloons, but they are certainly far less valuable than prospects at this juncture. Two of the picks are in a weak draft. Plus, Boston was a legitimate Stanley Cup contender if they could've shoehorned Kessel on to their squad - they may be missing their window of Stanley Cup contention. They gain cap relief, but they also squandered money on the Derek Morris contract and buying out Peter Schaefer - these moves should not have been made before securing Kessel's contract.

Coming Soon: The Boston Side and Why Toronto Lost

The Derick Brassard Deal - Anticipation

2009-09-09T09:03:00.000-07:00

We often belabor the point here at Hockey On Paper - in fact, we think that should be our slogan: Hockey on Paper, We Love to Belabor. One of the points we've been trying to hammer home is just how important it is in a salary cap environment to have underpriced contracts somewhere on one's roster. We like to think of contract value not in terms of goals and assists but in terms goals and assists converted back to dollars. The best team in the league (however one chooses to define this) has salaries worth some X above their total salary costs, that is why they are the best.

Derick Brassard only has 48 NHL games played, but Columbus is gambling and giving him a 4 year, 12.8 million dollar deal. This contract is similar to the one given to Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays, a move that puzzled MLB experts but excited sabermetricians. It was a risk - sure, Longoria may not turn out to be a great player, but almost all indications were that he would. Likewise, while Brassard has not played that many NHL games, all signs point to him being an excellent contributor. So why now instead of after next season?

Columbus gets a discount

Brassard's lack of experience increases the risk, but if he has an excellent season, his contract demands will go way up. Unless he gets injured again, it's not likely that a contract offer of that length would plummet - Brassard is almost certainly going to be worth more than 3.2 million per season in 2013-14.

Columbus avoids an impasse

Phil Kessel and Brandon Dubinsky are still unsigned with training camp's beginning a few short days away. Columbus must have noticed this - furthermore, Brassard isn't arbitration-eligible until 2011-12. With neither side having recourse to arbitration, contract negotiations could have gotten contentious, which benefits no one.

Columbus pays out the largest amount when it can afford it

Steve Mason and Nikita Filatov will still be on entry-level contracts in the first year of Brassard's new contract. This means that while Brassard will be overpaid relative to what an arbitration-ineligible RFA should get for the 2010-11 season, Columbus has enough low-priced contracts to weather that storm. However, down the road, it will need all the cap room it can get, and if Brassard can emerge into the 20-50-70 (or better) sort of player it looks like he might be, Columbus gets a steep discount during the final two years of that deal, enabling a possible Stanley Cup run to come to Central Ohio.

Okay, yeah, there's downside

This contract is not without its risks, of course. Everyone loves to make fun of the Rick Dipietro contract, not realizing that said contract has been copied around the NHL as a model of excellent management. So, Negative Nellies, have at it:

Brassard is injury-prone

He has missed significant time in 2 of the last 3 years. We can't be totally sure if that indicates a lack of durability or simply bad luck. He may well be injury prone, but the Jackets likely got a discount as a result of that.

Brassard might never develop past this point

Brassard not developing further would be rather shocking - even if he doesn't, he is still likely a 15-45-60 type of player. Overpaying for that isn't really a crime, although it would be a large setback for Columbus.

Brassard might get complacent

Being signed for the next 5 years may cause a 22 year old to get a swelled head and bloated body if he doesn't watch himself. However, this is unknowable to anyone who isn't in the Columbus organization - it's the type of risk that Stanley Cup contention is built on.

Conclusion

The Derick Brassard deal is perfect for the Columbus Blue Jackets. While they have made contract mistakes in the past, this one makes up for some of them.

The Kessel Situation, Part 2

2009-09-08T17:24:00.000-07:00

We were rather lazy in creating our last post, so another whirl:

Let us say that the Boston Bruins' chances of winning the Stanley Cup this season are some number a, with Phil Kessel on the roster, along with all the other Bruins' players, below the salary cap.

If Kessel gets offered a sheet, the Bruins' probabilities become b and c - b is with Kessel, at his elevated price, and some other players waived/released/whatever, c is without Kessel altogether.

Let us then posit letter d - the probability of the Bruins winning the Stanley Cup in 2011 with Kessel, and e without him, having been signed by another team.

(this can also be done with projected revenues based on playoff success).

Now a is our ideal, but seems somewhat unlikely. We only include a here because it's also a comparison if the Bruins decide to make a trade with Kessel - they will have a very difficult time getting back fair value for him.

For an offer sheet, however, it's very simple - if (b+d)x < (c+e)y, where x is some number above 1 that represents the time value of money, and y represents the possible trade value of the draft picks the Bruins receive, the Bruins should pass on signing Kessel.

Obviously, none of these variables are knowable; there's a lot of uncertainty involved. What would make this more clear is the salary cap situation for the Bruins - however, this equation is only based on the fact that if Kessel is signed to a large deal, it will be very difficult to retain Marc Savard.

The Phil Kessel Situation

2009-09-08T06:34:00.000-07:00

Holding out was a classic maneuver under the old CBA - several players even held out for an entire season (Petr Nedved, Michael Peca, Alexei Yashin, to name a few). We have yet to see that under the new CBA, in part because a player can only hold out to December 1, according to 11.4 of the CBA. If he holds out longer, he will be ineligible to sign a contract. We suspect this clause has something to do with the salary cap, but that is a discussion for another day.

Phil Kessel is still unsigned as the Bruins head to camp this week. It is theorized that the Leafs made a trade for their 2nd round draft pick so that they can submit an offer sheet to Kessel - teams must have their draft picks in order to submit offer sheets. Here is the compensation teams receive based on the size of the offer sheet submitted.

Could the Leafs submit an offer for something like 5 years, 30.1 million? This would entitle the Bruins to a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in compensation. The Leafs' biggest lack is a top-end scoring threat, and Kessel certainly showed himself to be that last season. The real question is - would the Bruins let Phil Kessel go if this offer were made?

Digression On The Bruins' Salary Cap Problems

Everyone is talking about the salary cap hell the Blackhawks are putting themselves in, but the Bruins are also in an uncomfortable spot. They owe 36.8 million to 10 players, plus $1 million in buyouts. That's 37.8 million already committed to next year's cap, plus Milan Lucic and Blake Wheeler are going to be RFAs, the latter arbitration-eligible. Marc Savard is a UFA next off-season, and unless the Bruins can get rid of a salary or two, he may not be able to re-sign with Boston.

Back to Kessel

Kessel being paid $6 million would throw the Bruins' cap commitment to 43.8 million for 11 players. It is totally untenable even if the salary cap stays at its present 56.8M level - the Bruins would have to make a trade. While Marco Sturm is probably disposable, bringing that level down to 40 million to 10 players, it still leaves 16.8 million for 10 players. That sounds like a lot, but Lucic and Wheeler are RFA, and with the latter being arb eligible, he is going to get at least 2.5 million if he sustains last season's performance. Lucic is also a candidate to draw an offer sheet - like Dustin Penner, he is big and supremely overrated. The Bruins have a tough road ahead - letting Kessel go may solve some problems while replenishing their prospect base for future Stanley Cup runs.

Conclusion

It may be in Boston's best interest to let Kessel go if Toronto signs him to an offer sheet. They may work out some other compensation instead of draft picks, but Boston just doesn't have much room to operate under the salary cap at the moment.

Thought Experiment With Contracts

2009-09-04T10:37:00.000-07:00

Let's posit two players: Evgeni Peaklate and Wendel NHLReady, about to be drafted by an NHL team. Wendel NHLReady is a good old Canadian boy who's got all around solid skills, but his upside is limited. Evgeni Peaklate is a flashy Russian who needs some work on defense and positioning but has tremendously high upside. With the NHL UFA age now at 27, and 25 for players like Jay Bouwmeester who had 7 years of service time, should NHL GMs be thinking about players in terms of Peaklate and NHLReady - i.e. should they consider something other than 'best player available?'

Let's say NHLReady needs 2 years in junior, and Peaklate needs 2 years in junior/Russian league/wherever, as well as 2 years in the minor leagues. Let's also assume that both players are paid exactly what they are worth, except for their entry level contract. It therefore follows that unless NHLReady is providing minimal value during the three years he spends in the NHL under his entry level deal, or Peaklate incredible value for that one season, that NHLReady will provide more value for his team over the course of his contracts.

Obviously things don't work this way. The point we're trying to illustrate with this silly example is that with our earlier assertion that UFA players get paid 50% more than what they get paid as RFAs on average, teams should think harder about players with limited upside but more certain NHL futures who will be ready for the NHL quicker than counterparts with serious flaws in their game that need correcting. Luckily, junior hockey teams around the world are getting better at developing players who are ready for the NHL - 2008-09 saw 12 players picked in the 2008 draft make their NHL debut.

Next post: The change between the first entry-level contract and first RFA contract a player enters into. We estimate the average change will be between 125% and 175%.

Trades That Should Happen

2009-08-27T18:28:00.000-07:00

Things have been slow around the NHL - we've wanted to do a best signings list/worst signings, but there's still too many players available to do anything like that. Training camp opens in fifteen days, so we imagine those players will ink sometime, but days continue going by without much action.

We do, however, sense there are some teams with some excess players at one position and deficiencies at another.

Here's a little list:

Vancouver: How Many Forwards Do You Need?

Vancouver currently has 16 forwards that could make the big squad. We suspect that if Michal Grabner or Sergei Shirokov impress in camp that some of them could be headed elsewhere. Vancouver is also in need of a defenseman, although it's been reported that they are interested in Mathieu Schneider - Schneider arrived in the NHL before Rob Schneider arrived on SNL. Hint: That means he's old.

New Jersey's Defense Surplus

The Devils currently have 9 players on their roster who played in 20 or more NHL games next season. While dispatching one is far from necessary - at least two should make it through waivers - it certainly couldn't hurt for a team that looks devoid of depth at center.

Duck Pate

The Anaheim Ducks currently have 13 forwards on one-way contracts, and one on a two-way deal (Bobby Ryan) who won't be going to the minors any time soon - certainly just the right amount with which to run an NHL team. However, if anyone from their minor league system impresses, that's one player that can be shuffled off. The Ducks still have some backline depth issues, although most of their young players are defensemen.

Logjam On The St. Lawrence

Montreal only has 7 D under contract for this season, but the promising Yanick Weber is in Hamilton awaiting his NHL opportunity. If any one of the 7 falters, Montreal may look to dispose of him to bring up Weber. Ryan O'Byrne and Josh Gorges should probably rent, not buy.

Salary Increases For First-Time UFAs

2009-08-24T08:25:00.000-07:00

As promised, here is the chart for first time Unrestricted Free Agents. It includes only players who were 27 or younger who are Group III Free Agents. Bouwmeester is not 27 but earned his free agency with 7 years of service time. These are players who have never had a contract year where they would have been UFA the previous July - that would've have muddled the picture.

As we can see, even with Kurtis Foster's aberration included - his injury troubles have made it unclear whether he can be an effective NHL player - the average increase was still above 50%. This is coming in a year of almost no salary cap increase. We did not even include Johnny Oduya's contract which was signed on June 30 - his pay increased nearly sixfold.

Essentially, RFAs on 2nd contracts are 50% cheaper than UFAs, and players on entry-level contracts are far cheaper than that. It's a young man's game now; clubs need solid entry-level players in order to compete.

Arbitration Awards

2009-08-19T08:25:00.000-07:00

We were thinking about how much money is saved by having an arbitration-eligible player versus an unrestricted free agent. The best way to measure this would be to look at players who went to arbitration, then became unrestricted free agents, and compare the arbitration award to the current salary. Unfortunately, we are not succeeding at finding lists for 2005 or 2006 arbitration awards, but we did find one on TSN for 2007.

So we whipped up this handy-dandy chart. The first two columns are pretty self-explanatory - that's what the player got paid per season in arbitration, the second is what he made the year after that - 4 of them were UFA, Hunter was not but signed a deal well into his UFA years. Column 3 is the % increase between the two. Column 4 is a bit trickier - we cannot just compare salaries across the board between years. We have to remember that the salary cap increased over this time - it was $50.1 million in 2007-08. Further compounding this issue is the fact that the salary cap cannot be mentioned in arbitration hearings. We decided to use the % increase between 2007-08 and 2008-09 plus half the % increase between 2006-07 and 2007-08, figuring there to be some lag between arbitration awards and salary cap increases.

As you can see, of these 5, their salaries increased by 55% on average when they became UFA eligible. We don't think this is a strong enough sample - we intend to search out all players who had their first UFA contract this year or last year to see what the average increase is there.

Coming Next: 2008-09 First Time UFA Salary Increases.

Last Year's Top Twenty Scorers - How Will They Fare?

2009-08-14T08:35:00.000-07:00

We have spoken here about Expected Goals before - a quick and dirty way of predicting how much a player will score next season. Mostly for fun, we conjured up this list, to see how far right or wrong Expected Goals will be.

This chart is fairly self-explanatory - the Exp Shooting % is the player's averaged shooting percentage over the last 4 seasons. Expected Shots/Game are his Shots/Game averaged over the last four seasons. Coefficient is an unscientific way of indicating that most of these players should expect to increase their shots/game next year versus the average of their last four seasons. We should have done this by averaging their previous two seasons, then adding half the difference + some arbitrary coefficient by age, but we did not do that. Anyway, it shall be interesting to see how the season shakes out for these twenty players:

Alex Ovechkin is 7 goals ahead of everyone else, and we didn't even think that his SOG increase from last season is sustainable.

The One Year Deal - Good Idea?

2009-08-11T05:35:00.000-07:00

The last 8 UFA contracts signed by definite NHL players have been 1 year deals. The implication is that it's 1 year deals all the way down - anyone who wants to play in the NHL next year and isn't already signed, be prepared to rent an apartment instead of buying a house.

The reasons for teams wanting to sign one-year deals are simple:

1. If the contract goes bad, there's no extra years to worry about.
2. The team may have cheaper alternatives coming up in the minor league system.

From the player's perspective, the logic is probably more like this:

1. It may be the only kind of deal being offered to him.
2. If his performance increases, it may be advantageous to him to have only signed for 1 year.

This is all very simplistic. Obviously Reason #1 for teams and Reason #2 for players are two sides of the same coin. At this point in free agency, there are still players in their legitimate NHL prime waiting for contracts. These players include:

Steve Eminger, Taylor Pyatt, Mike Comrie, Dennis Seidenberg, Alex Tanguay, Manny Malhotra, Dominic Moore

There is almost no danger of these players' play declining in the second year of a contract (Comrie excepted). With the market for these players having collapsed, a smart team would go after these players with multi-year deals - next year's UFA class is shaping up to be even more competitive than this one.

Let's say one of these players signs a one-year contract. Let's say that 20% of the time, he is $500,000 or more valuable than the contract he signs, 70% of the time he is within +/- $500,000 of the contract he signs, and 10% of the time he is below $500,000 in value of the contract he signs. We realize that here we are begging the question - of course one would want to sign this player to a multi-year contract. That is precisely our point.

In free agency, the phenomenon known as the Winner's Curse frequently comes into play. If a free agent merely wishes to go to the place that will pay him the most money for the most years, teams continue bidding until they reach an agreement. The problem is that the team who values him most highly is almost always making a mistake with that valuation. With these free agents, there is likely no 'Winner's Curse' because it is clear that bidding on them has fallen apart. Teams should want to buy as many years of these players as possible - it is probably the players who want 1 year deals, figuring that if they perform well, they'll be heavily in demand next year, and could get contract offers that nearly double the ones they are getting this season.

Free Talent

2009-08-08T08:14:00.000-07:00

We here at Hockey On Paper tend to get excited by minor deals - we thought, for example, that the Devils' trade of the rights of non-prospect Tony Romano for non-NHL player Ben Walter in June was a tremendous steal. Little deals are rarely the difference between making the playoffs and missing them, but every year there is some waiver transaction that seems to make a large difference - this past year's would be Rich Peverley to Atlanta and the 'trade' of Jussi Jokinen to Carolina. Furthermore, free talent that performs well can be upgraded - Los Angeles parlayed Kyle Quincey into the centerpiece of the Ryan Smyth deal. There's some intriguing items that may come available for the team willing to dig - players who've been trapped in their team's minor league system and who don't appear to have any roster spot opening up for them this coming season.

1. C/RW Rob Schremp

Putting 'Rob Schremp' into YouTube brings up videos that show off his tremendous stick-handling skills. Yet Schremp has been unable to crack the Oilers' roster, despite decent numbers in the AHL. With the coaching changes in Edmonton this off-season, perhaps Schremp will get a fairer shake, and he may make his way on to Edmonton's roster. If he does not, he is waiver-eligible, and someone short on talent but long on patience could get themselves a 20-30-50 type of player sometime in the future.

2. LW Chris Bourque

The diminutive son of Ray had a point a game last year in the AHL. While the Capitals only have 12 forwards signed for next season, leaving room for Bourque, he may not get the nod over a more versitaile player.

3. C Cal O'Reilly

O'Reilly has some very impressive assist numbers, and from those it's hard to see what's keeping him back from the NHL. Nashville does have a spot for him, and we think it very unlikely that O'Reilly stays off the roster this year, but training camp tends to influence teams more than it should.

4. C Kyle Chipchura

We can't pretend to know what Habs GM Bob Gainey is thinking. We think that Chipchura will certainly make the team and that it's likely that Glen Metropolit will be either a 13th forward or waiver bait, but aliens seem to have taken over his brain.

Unfortunately, all four players will be eligible for arbitration next year, so the savings is short-lived. Regardless, these sorts of players can definitely be an asset for someone next season, and with the salary cap going the way it is, unused, cheap talent becomes more and more valuable.

When The Rich Get Richer

2009-08-03T14:54:00.000-07:00

We cannot pretend to know the finances of the KHL. According to this site, the KHL salary cap for the 2009-10 site is 620 million rubles, with one 'franchise player' exception. 620 million rubles is approximately 20 million dollars. We do not know how the KHL makes a profit, or if it does.

Jiri Hudler received a 2 year, 10 million dollar (tax-free) contract in Russia. This is probably equivalent to receiving around $20 million playing hockey here, considering taxes and cost-of-living. However, many players who played in Russia during the lockout of 2004-05 did not like the rigorous practices and more strict discipline that Russian teams tend to have. It remains to be seen whether Hudler will stay in the KHL when his contract is up.

However, the Red Wings got a serious boost when an arbitrator ruled that Jiri Hudler would receive a 2 year, 5.75 million dollar deal if he returns to the NHL. According to BehindTheNet, Hudler was third on the Wings in Goals/60 minutes. In fact, Hudler receives well below average ice time given his skill level - Hudler was 333rd in the NHL in Even Strength Time On Ice for forwards. His even strength shooting percentage was not out of line with the rest of the Red Wings either, shooting a 7.9%. This is a tremendously skilled player.

The Red Wings are lauded for their remarkable ability to find skill players, but that time may be at an end. We are not convinced that of the trio of Leino, Abdelkader, and Helm who so wowed the NHL establishment in the post-season, that the Wings have tremendously skilled players on their hands. Abdelkader may develop into a 2nd line LW, Leino may as well, but their numbers for the AHL squadron were not overly impressive, and according to Hockey's Future, 'Detroit should look to address its top-six depth if at all possible'. We are not casting aspersions on these young players, depth is certianly important, but we do not think these are the next Franzen, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk. The Wings are going to need a skill injection, and now they have a player who just might return to the NHL in two seasons, right when Pavel Datsyuk could be starting his decline, and who might be an NHL star for a very reasonable price.

At The Margins

2009-07-31T09:00:00.000-07:00

We remember from whatever rudimentary economics training we had a little bit about efficient markets. According to wikipedia, "[F]inancial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, or property) already reflect all known information, and instantly change to reflect new information." The NHL would be as close to efficient as possible if there were no entry draft, and every player was only given a one-year contract each season. Obviously this is not the case - multi-year contracts queer the deal. The NHL is therefore far from an efficient market - players who should be in the NHL sometimes are not, and vice versa.

There are approximately 60 players who are still unrestricted free agents who were NHL regulars for the past few seasons. Of these, 10 or 15 are likely to retire - their age is advanced and there probably won't be a contract out there for them. Others were somewhat capable players seemingly being squeezed by the fact that teams only have $100,000 more in cap room than they did last season.

We will be very interested to see what happens to these five players:

RW Mike Grier
RW Rob Niedermayer
D Martin Skoula
D Christian Backman
C Mike Comrie

There was no hypothesis or test run to determine these five players - merely intuition. All five are at an interesting point in their career.

The Right Wings

RWs Mike Grier and Rob Niedermayer are quite similar - both played in the Pacific Division last season, and both are regarded as top penalty killers - Niedermayer was 16th among forwards, Grier 53rd in PK TOI per game. Both are 34 years old, born within a month of one another. Grier has received around 16 minutes of ice per game, Niedermayer 17, in the last three seasons. Both are on the cusp of being liabilities at that much usage - and both will likely have to settle for contracts in the $900,000 to $1,200,000 range.

The Defensemen

Ds Martin Skoula and Christian Backman were drafted around the middle of the first round; Skoula played 20:41/G for the 2000-01 Cup-winning Avalanche at age 21, although his usage was scaled heavily back in the playoffs. Billed as an offensive D when he entered the league, Skoula has a decent number of goals and assists, but last year received almost no power play time for the Wild. He is a defenseman that does a lot of things okay, but nothing particularly well, and has not fulfilled the promise he once showed.

Christian Backman's ice time has dropped from 24:49/game with the horrid 2005-06 Blues to 15:39 with last season's Blue Jackets. He was used on the power play, but not much. He has skills, but a penchant for giveaways, and he managed only 7 points.

Both of these players are not old - they are each 29, to turn 30 during the season. There's enough time for them to presumably turn their careers around a bit. Normally, these guys would get contracts from a team who knows they're 1st round guys and see the talent they have, but again, they will likely have to settle for contracts at $1,000,000 or less and it's hard to imagine those deals will be multi-year.

The Malcontent

Mike Comrie has been on 5 different teams, he's scored 30 goals twice, and he's represented Canada 3 times at the World Championships, and he'll be 29 when the season opens. He's still looking for work - his problems are his defensive commitment and toughness. Will he be willing to sign a $1 million contract with someone who hopes to harness his potential?

Conclusion

The old saying goes, a leopard cannot change its spots, but NHL free agency has always involved a lot of spot-changing and wishcasting. This year, there's an excess of players available - teams are warier of making long-term commitments and aren't just going to sign a guy because he's played 500 NHL games before. They're going to test out their younger players to see if they've got the mettle to survive in the NHL. It might take until October for the phone to ring with a contract offer for these players - are they willing to fend off offers from foreign leagues until then?

addenda to the previous post

2009-07-29T15:49:00.000-07:00

Forgot Todd Marchant and Donald Brashear on that list, for the Ducks and Rangers, respectively.

Really been digging the work that Vic Ferrari and company are doing. We don't claim to understand all of it and much of contradicts what we might think, but it's very interesting.

A List Of The Aged

2009-07-24T10:41:00.000-07:00

That pesky over 35 clause in the CBA hasn't really nabbed anyone since Vladimir Malakhov's untimely departure from the NHL (which departure is shrouded in mystery). Let's revisit what that clause essentially states: Any player who signs a multi-year contract over the age of 35 (as of June 30th of the year that contract goes into effect), his contract is considered to count against the salary cap in the 2nd and any subsequent years, regardless of whether or not he is retired or active, unless he is put on Long-Term Injured Reserve.

Blogger seems to have shrunk the image, but you can click on it to enlarge.

Philadelphia, Ottawa, New Jersey, and Detroit seem the worst off here. Detroit has two players who had awful seasons on the cap for 2 more seasons. Philadelphia has Ian Laperriere likely dragging down their team or their cap, not to mention the horrible possibility of Chris Pronger getting injured and playing at a sub-par level. New Jersey has the Brian Rolston contract which began horribly and may never recover. Ottawa's contracts are to skill players who have showed few signs of declining, but could at any moment.

Martin Biron Might Actually Be A Genius (Of Sorts)

2009-07-23T12:00:00.000-07:00

Martin Biron thought he was going to be one of the most sought-after goalies in free agency. Word got around that he was demanding $5 million per season on a multi-year contract. Biron looked at goalies like Evgeni Nabokov, Cristobal Huet, Ilya Bryzgalov, and the other host of overpaid goalies in the NHL and said, "Why can't this be me?"

But on July 21st, Biron looked like a complete idiot. His hubris had probably cost him a deal with Edmonton, and besides that, few people were looking for a big-time, big-money goalie. Biron was a man without a home, and beyond that, nowhere to possibly make his home. Everyone had at least one goalie who they could call a starter, some had two. Regardless, we are skeptical that this was the only offer on the table for Martin Biron - we even think that Biron might have turned down higher offers that were made recently. Why would he do that?

Goaltending is much different bird than other positions because there's much less room at the margins. A team that 'doesn't need' a particular forward or defenseman can still sign him and push out the worst guy on their team. But there's only 60 goalie jobs in the NHL, and most teams already have most of those positions filled by players they're unwilling to boot out. Furthermore, the starting goalie usually gets between 2/3rds and 4/5ths of the ice time, rendering a backup largely ceremonial. It leads to an oversupply of goalies wherein the market for them in trade totally shrinks - a team might want Martin Biron and might want to trade their current starter, but where can he be traded and for what? This all is obvious, but it's a preamble to the next statement.

The goaltending market is so oversatured that it is now determined by the UFA goalies around the league. Edmonton had Roloson, they acquired Khabibulin. The Avalanche had Andrew Raycroft, now they have Craig Anderson. The Panthers replaced Craig Anderson with Scott Clemmensen. The Devils, Clemmensen's old team, replaced him (and Kevin Weekes) with Yann Danis, who came from the Islanders. The Islanders replaced Danis and Joey McDonald with Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron.

So who's on the goaltending carousel next year that might make it prudent for Biron to re-join the fray once again next July?

Anaheim: Hiller
Dallas: Turco
Nashville: Rinne
Philadelphia: Emery
St. Louis: Mason
San Jose: Nabokov
Toronto: Toskala
Vancouver: Luongo
Washington: Theodore

Not all these teams will be destitute if their starter leaves, but some of them will no doubt be looking for high-priced assistance. But how can Martin Biron put his name back into the hat, playing on the Islanders, where he's sure to split time with Dwayne Roloson? Easy answer: That's not where he'll be all season.

Lemma/Digression On One-Year Contracts And Their Value

In July of 2007, Brad Stuart mysteriously signed a one-year deal with the LA Kings. The deal didn't make much sense - the Kings weren't going anywhere, why bother? Stuart claimed LA was his off-season home, which was true, but why only one year? That question would be answered when the Kings shipped him off at the trade deadline to the Red Wings for a 2nd round pick. The Kings had obviously intended to do this if things went poorly for them that season - Stuart helped the Wings to a Stanley Cup, then managed himself a 4 year/3.75M per deal that now looks terrible, a rare mis-step for Detroit.

Back to Your Regularly Scheduled Ramblings

Martin Biron signed on Long Island for 1 year because he will, wihout a doubt, get traded before the trading deadline. It is just a question of where. Philadelphia might need goaltending. Detroit might need a starter if Osgood is once again faltering. San Jose may want to usurp Nabokov if his play slips. Washington could still be interested. All four of these teams are almost locks to make the playoffs, all of them have decent goalies signed, but all of them may need a goalie come playoff time. Rather than sign with one team, possibly get squeezed out into a backup role, and therefore have no leverage when it comes to free agency next season, Biron essentially signed with all four by taking the Islanders. He's hoping that he gets a chance with a Cup contender - if he does, and he can take them all the way, his value will go through the roof. It's perhaps not the play he would've wanted, but it works for all sides - Biron will get a big contract next off-season, and the Islanders probably get a 2nd round pick for a player they will only end up paying around $1 million to.

On How The Rich Get Richer

2009-07-21T06:18:00.000-07:00

We can't find a source for this, but we read once that John D. Rockefeller actually became wealthier during the Great Depression. Essentially, his competitors went broke and he bought up their distressed assets; since everyone else was broke, he could buy them for incredibly cheap.

Similar things are true about a falling salary cap environment. The wealthier teams can afford to stash contracts in the minor leagues, thereby enabling them to have freedom to make riskier movements - their mistakes are simply not as costly. In times of rising salary cap environments, wealthy teams can sign big-ticket contracts because those contracts increase in worth as the salary cap increases - i.e. they cost less of a percentage of the cap. As the cap increases, ostensibly the number of teams who can spend up to it decreases, and the wealthier teams are once again in the running for the top free agents. The rich win both ways. Shocking, really.

We have spoken at length here about how we think the salary cap is going to fall to between 50 and 53 million dollars next season. There are a number of teams who've already committed that much money or more. With estimated RFA contracts, here's those teams:

What unites these teams? They're either big-market teams or Canadian teams. Clearly they are not as worried about the falling salary cap as others. Let's look at some ways rich teams can use this crisis to their advantage - We'll use the Rangers as an example, because they have been the most brazenly defiant team this 0ff-season:

1. Hiding Contracts In the Minors

The CBA realizes that wealthy teams might do this - teams are only allowed to go 10% over the salary cap between July 1 and the end of training camp. The Rangers cannot therefore grab up every bad contract they want to. If the salary cap is between 50 and 53 million, the Rangers could have between 55 and 58.3 million dollars on their cap before the season starts.

2. Using Injured Reserve

Let's say Marian Gaborik gets hurt. Shocking, really. The Rangers are now permitted to replace his cap number until he returns from injury. The Rangers could then trade for or call up salary equal to Gaborik's. With basically every team having a bad salary on their books, the Rangers can wheel and deal with the assets they've got, using the minor leagues to hide their worst contracts while hopefully acquiring better ones.

3. Using Emergency Recall

We tried to make sense of this in the CBA - emergency recall is a procedure a team can use when they have less than the 18 skaters necessary to play, they can call up a player without subjective him to waivers - once the emergency is over, the player has to be immediately returned to the minors (or be subject to waivers). The Devils had Scott Clemmensen on 'emergency recall' for several months while Martin Brodeur was injured this season. The Rangers could use this to avoid subjecting high-priced contracts to re-entry waivers, where the Rangers and the player's new team each pay half of the salary.

4. Playoffs?! You kiddin' me?

When the playoffs begin, the salary cap no longer applies. We'll repeat this, you might've had something crazy in your ears: When the playoffs begin, the salary cap no longer applies. A gambling team can therefore hide bad contracts in the minors, then resuscitate them for the playoffs. The Rangers are almost certainly going to waive Wade Redden next season unless he picks up his performance - but were they to suffer injury, or were they to think that Redden is their man in the post-season - in he goes.

Conclusion

If these teams are willing to kick one big-ticket contract to the curb, they have the possibility of scooping up UFA assets that the poorer teams, most of whom are not far away from the $50 million threshold themselves, will not be able to afford. The 2010-11 off-season is shaping up to be a very interesting one indeed.

Problems With Time On Ice

2009-07-19T10:00:00.000-07:00

We have stated numerous times that we are not statisticians. Perhaps we should have been, but that's a lament best left aside. On this blog, we do not necessarily seek answers, but merely pose questions - questions that are still, we think, nevertheless instructive. We recall the joke at many higher-end colleges - 'I know how it works in practice, but how does it work in theory?' - this is more the attitude that this entry will take.

One of the largest problems we think that hockey statistics face is the problem of ice time. Regular hockey statistics are in terms of counting numbers, e.g. goals, assists, what have you. This misses the mark somewhat - a player who scores a certain amount of points in 12 minutes of ice time per game is almost certainly more valuable than one who scores the same amount in 20 minutes of ice time. So then, perhaps, we go to rates, as Behind The Net has done - Goals For (While On Ice)/60 minutes and Goals Against (While On Ice)/60 minutes. Almost all advanced statistics across sports are rate statistics, and these are no different. While they are certainly an improvement over nothing, there's still problems with treating all minutes the same, and they are as follows:

1. Level Of Competition

Whereas in baseball a batter (generally) faces the same defense each at-bat in a particular game, a hockey player may face a completely different set of players against him on any given shift. This problem explodes further when one considers that each player on a team may face different players on any given shift. This does not happen in football or baseball, generally - essentially, a player on a 4th line may rarely or never face a good line against him.

2. Quality of Linemates

A hockey player may have a different set of linemates throughout the season - ergo his stats may rise and fall depending on who he's playing with. Since this can change so often throughout a season, we cannot just throw this away as meaningless. Warren Young is the classic hockey example of being raised up by playing with great players - a career minor leaguer, Young got a chance to play with Mario Lemieux and led the league in shooting percentage on his way to a 40 goal season. He earned a lucrative deal with Detroit, where he flamed out - Young would only play 2 more full seasons in the NHL. Behind The Net has developed statistics for these two concepts, but they merely sort players in terms of how strong their competition is and how strong their teammates are - it has no meaning outside of that context, no coefficient to adjust other statistics by.

3. Denigrating the Strongest?

Some players are given much more ice time than others - how do we adjust for that? For example, Alex Ovechkin averaged 22:03 in even strength plus power play ice time, the highest in the league. Therefore, relative to every other forward in the league, his rate stats would be downgraded. But is there not some benefit to being able to play 22 minutes a game at forward? With a rate statistic, we are unfairly penalizing Ovechkin for being such a tremendous athlete that is he is capable of that much ice time - sure, there may be players capable of putting up similar rates to Ovechkin, but they're unlikely to be able to receive the amount of ice time he does.

4. Leverage

The last problem is a problem of leverage, a concept that sabermetricians in baseball created to deal with relief pitchers and their usage. Some pitchers are routinely brought in with runners on base and are expected to put out the fire - others are only used when the team has a large lead or a large deficit. So we ask: How valuable were the player's minutes? A 4th line player might receive 13 minutes a game in a complete blowout, skewing his time on ice upwards, but would they be any more valuable than his normal 6 or 7? Furthermore, a tremendous scoring player might be left off the ice in the last 3 minutes when his team is ahead because he is a poor defensive player. We would have to come up with a way to quantify how valuable minutes are, likely looking at offensive and defensive zone faceoffs in the third period or overtime of close games.

Once again, we have no solutions for these problems, we are merely a gadfly. We have not even discussed just how much variance there is in a given season, which can also inject whatever statistics could come out of such an exploration with a great deal of uncertainty. It should still be instructive for general managers to observe these four items when considering a player for a team, however - buying a low-leverage player who got an inordinate number of shifts with excellent linemates is a good way to lose one's job.

Marian Gaborik - Arglebargle or Fooferah?

2009-07-18T08:41:00.000-07:00

The Rangers are doing something quite astounding. This is their team at the end of the 2008 season, when they defeated the Devils in five games, only to lose to the Penguins in 5:

Straka-Dubinsky-Jagr
Avery-Gomez-Callahan
Dawes-Drury-Sjostrom
Shanahan-Betts-Orr

Staal-Girardi
Roszival-Tyutin
Backman-Mara

Not only have they undergone serious changes this off-season, but players that have come and gone since then include: Derek Morris, Nikolai Antropov, Markus Naslund, Dmitri Kalinin, Nikolai Zherdev (probably), Aaron Voros (probably), Dan Fritsche and Lauri Korpikoski.

Here is what the Rangers look like now, with Rangers who've been there for more than 14 months highlighted in Blue:

Gaborik-Drury-Callahan
Higgins-Dubinsky-Kotalik
Avery-Anisimov-Lisin
Brashear-Boyle-?

Staal-Girardi
Redden-Roszival
?-?

Lundqvist
Valiquette

(Note: Avery doesn't count, as he left the team then returned)

It's an astounding trick, that Glen Sather has managed to turn over his roster significantly in all 4 years since the lockout, and yet in this cobbling together and breaking apart, we see no significant improvement. Let's at least look at Marian Gaborik - we really do have no idea what to expect from this new Rangers team. Let's see what Expected Goals has to say about the Slovakian wonder.

LW Marian Gaborik

Age: 27 (28 in Feb. 2010)
Contract Status: Signed through 2013-14
Cap Hit: $7.5M
Discipline: Medium-Low? (T-9th in NHL among RW in minor penalties in 2007-08)
Durability: Low (Lost 121 games to injury in last 4 seasons)
Time On Ice: Very High (5th among RW in 2008-09)

Expected Goals: 44

The question is - can we expect 44 goals out of Marian Gaborik, even assuming he plays an 82 game spread, given the offensive talent that surrounds him? Of course, Minnesota was not exactly brimming with talent either, but they did have some decent passers in Mikko Koivu and Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Given that so many of the current Rangers are of a shoot-first mindset, Gaborik prominent among them, will Gaborik's style be hampered by the current Rangers makeup? We don't think so - we are willing to stand by what Expected Goals tells us. Expected Goals thinks that Gaborik's shots per game will increase to 4.23, but that his shooting percentage will decrease to 12.3%. We shall see if the shoot-first mentality among the other Rangers will decrease both his S/G and shooting percentage - this may occur if Gaborik's linemates insist on shooting the puck themselves instead of trying to set him up, and because Gaborik is no longer receiving juicy setups, his shooting percentage will decrease as well. That said, it's difficult to bet that his Expected Goals is anything less than 35 even in that scenario - Gaborik will be expected to lead the way for the 2009-10 Rangers.

Anatomy of a Contract - RW Marian Hossa, D Jay Bouwmeester

2009-07-15T10:27:00.001-07:00

We chose to examine these two contracts together because they both reveal something about the current state of the NHL. During free agency in a rising salary cap environment, one team is often capable of substantially outbidding the others - players certainly have taken less to go certain places (Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rafalski, as two examples), but this tends to be the exception. In a falling salary cap environment, teams have to be warier about how they distribute their money, and the exceptional offer may never come along. It therefore falls to other preferences - do I want to take less money to be on a winning team? Do I want to play closer to home?

Marian Hossa's contract is an example of one signed by a player who wants to 'win'. He'll be playing for an exceptionally young team that went to the Conference Finals - Hossa signed a 12 year, 62.8 million dollar deal. While highly reputable hockey people such as sundstrom at njdevs.com contended that Hossa would get below 7.5 million/season in his contract, it is still surprising that Marian signed up for such a low figure - of course, it is not really a low figure at all, as Hossa will be paid 7.9 million over the first 8 seasons of the deal. It would be surprising if a team like the New York Rangers did not offer more. However, the Blackhawks are much closer to a Stanley Cup than the Rangers, and Hossa has gotten tantalizingly close to lifting Lord Stanley the last two years.

Jay Bouwmeester's contract is similar - there is no front-loading, but Bouwmeester will be playing in his home province of Alberta. He never made it to the market, but it is difficult to imagine that he would not have received offers higher than $6.6 million over five years. In taking a hometown discount, he gives the Flames a better chance at collecting the players they need to win.

There are lots of other contracts that appear to be of this sort - Saku Koivu and John Madden's come to mind - where players chose either comfort or winning over dollars. Expect more of these contracts in the coming weeks, as there are still some solid free agents lurking in the shadows. GMs around the league had best be aware of all these possible enticements - they can certainly be the difference between signing a player and watching him go elsewhere.

The Ryan Smyth Trade - Cellar Dwellers Exchange Players, Promise To Meet At Bottom of Standings

2009-07-14T08:50:00.000-07:00

The title is perhaps a bit snarky, but considering the Avs finished last in their conference and the Kings next to last, it is still fitting.

Kings Receive:

LW Ryan Smyth

Colorado Receives:

D Kyle Quincey
D Tom Priessing
5th Round Pick in 2010

Kings' Take

LW Ryan Smyth

Age: 33 (34 in February 2010)

Contract Status: Signed through 2011-12
Cap Hit: $6.25 million
Durability: Medium-Low
Discipline: Medium-Low (26 minors, T-21st among LW)
Ice Time: Very High (5th among LW)

Expected Goals: 33

Smyth presents an interesting paradox for Expected Goals - he recorded the highest S/G of his career last season, while recording a below-average shooting percentage. His 2007-08 season, his first with the Avs, was similar. This suggests that with the injuries to Joe Sakic and Paul Stastny, Smyth was expected to be the leader of the Avs' offense. It should be interesting to see how all these things intersect - the fact that Smyth's shooting % the first two post-lockout years was around 16.5%, and was 9.4% his two seasons in Colorado, his aging, and the fact that he is going to a team where he will have more talented offensive players around him. Smyth's shooting percentage has declined like other power play mavens such as Jonathan Cheechoo and Brian Gionta - it will be interesting if it can rise up once again.

His expected goals are somewhat immaterial, as they are in an 82 game season - Smyth has played one of these since 2001-02. Regardless, Smyth is a supposed leader and will be a strong veteran voice on a team that lacks them.

Colorado's Take

D Kyle Quincey

Age: 23 (24 in August)
Contract Status: Signed through 2009-10, RFA
Cap Hit: $525,000
Durability: Unknown
Discipline: Medium-Low (41st among D in Minor Penalties)
Time On Ice: Medium (90th among D)

Quincey is the jewel of this deal - picked up by the Kings on waivers, he went on to quarterback their power play, scoring 38 points in the process. His cap hit is insanely low until next season, so Colorado may not be his final stop - a team may well dump valuable assets on the Avs to have such an excellent contract.

D Tom Preissing

Age: 30 (31 in December)
Contract Status: Signed through 2010-11, UFA
Cap Hit: $2.75M
Durability: Medium-Low
Discipline: Very High
Time On Ice: Low (178th among Defensemen)

Preissing was a +40 with 38 points for the 2007 Senators, but the market was not exactly fooled by it - he signed a 4 year, 11 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Kings, where he proceeded to not be very good. Preissing takes very few minor penalties, surely a feather in his cap, but he appears to provide little value beyond that - he isn't a first-rate power play quarterback, and his ice time indicates he has little value in penalty-killing.

Salary Cap Motivations

Los Angeles

The Kings made a great trade, in theory. They got rid of Tom Preissing's useless contract in a trade for an ostensible asset, something GMs dream about. They sold high on Kyle Quincey, a player whom they picked up for free but who would no doubt cost significant money next off-season when he is arbitration-eligible, and who blocks several young defenseman the Kings will have joining their ranks soon. Instead of waiting for this eventuality, the Kings struck first. It's also worth noting that Quincey's NHL season was much better than any of his AHL seasons statistically, something which screams fluke. Unfortunately, when a team gives up these sorts of assets, what they get back in return can't often be a large boon - while Smyth fills a large hole on their top line, his contract runs through 2012, when Smyth will be 36. 'Power forwards' rarely have a good end to their career, so it is possible that Smyth's $6.25M cap hit will be a large liability two seasons hence.

Colorado

They get rid of one bad deal, pick up a great one (for this season), and are forced to take on a poor one as well. Preissing's deal expires in 2011, and with the Avs having 3 UFA defenders in 2010, all of whom should be sent away by the trade deadline, it is nice to have a player who can at least eat up some minutes on the backline. With Quincey, Preissing, Liles, and Hannan, the Avs have four NHL veterans signed through next season. The Avs also save $3 million this season, money which is no doubt valuable for a team going nowhere to weather the poor attendance surely coming.

Final Thoughts

The Kings pick up a piece to help them contend for the playoffs, but who may impinge on their Stanley Cup hopes three seasons down the road. The Avs get cheaper and younger.

Chris Pronger Contract - Brilliance or Folly?

2009-07-11T06:03:00.000-07:00

It is sometimes stunning what kind of errors can be made by NHL front offices. In 2001, the New Jersey Devils forgot to send contracts to Brian Rafalski and John Madden, making them both unrestricted free agents. This off-season, the Blackhawks sent qualifying offers through the mail to several key players, a violation of protocol that forced their hand into signing both Kris Versteeg and Cam Barker to long-term contracts. That stupidity was followed up by perhaps a greater one, as we'll see.

Chris Pronger signed a 7 year, 35 million dollar extension with the Philadelphia Flyers this past week. At first, we thought this typical grand guignol Flyers behavior - the horror show put on the ice by Pronger would soon rival the horror show off the ice as Chris Pronger and his contract aged. A famous clause in the CBA, 50.2.a.iv, states the following: 'All Player Salary and Bonuses earned in a League Year by a Player who is in the second or later year of a multi-year SPC which was signed when the player was 35 or older (as of June 30 prior to the League Year in which the SPC is to be effective), regardless of whether, or where, the player is playing...'. Lou Lamoriello was famously forced to give up a 1st round draft pick to move Vladimir Malakhov's dead money off his cap. Chris Pronger is right now 34 years of age, but he turns 35 on October 10th, therefore this clause is invoked, as the contract he signed does not go into effect until July 1, 2010.

However, as we looked at with the Detroit Red Wings a few whiffens past, the Flyers frontloaded this deal. The contract is structured such that Pronger gets paid (in millions) - 7.6, 7.6, 7.2, 7, 4, .525, .525. Essentially, he's going to play for the Flyers for five years, and then he's going to be a burden on the Flyers' salary cap for 2 seasons, costing them 5 million dollars to not play for them. Dumb, typical Flyers move, like signing a 92 year old Kjell Samuelsson type stuff - just no appreciation for the future.

Then, we reconsidered. Imagine this scenario - Chris Pronger is 40 years old, his wife tires of the Pat's vs. Geno's debate, he begins to have remorse about everyone he's maimed, and so he 'retires' - then the Flyers trade his cap hit to some team in the year 2015. While we cannot predict what the economic climate of the US and Canada will be that far in advance, we can predict that somewhere, some NHL owner will have gotten himself in too deep in buying a franchise, and will be desperate to cut costs somewhere. Enter Chris Pronger's contract - it counts for $5 million on the cap, but Pronger won't have to be paid a red cent. It's the perfect asset for a perpetually broke team struggling to reach the salary floor, which is set around $39 million this season, and will likely be closer to $45 million 5 years hence. Therefore, the Flyers win in two ways - one, Pronger's cap hit is lower than it would be for a player making $7 million, and two, they get to fob off this Pronger contract as a legitimate asset once his playing career is over. It's brilliant and forward-thinking.

The next day, we learn this:

"According to the NHL, the [Pronger contract will count against the cap regardless of whether he retires]. The seven-year, $35 million extension Pronger agreed to on Tuesday doesn't commence until after June 30, 2010. Pronger will be 35 at that point and any remaining salary will remain on the cap.

The Flyers disagree and interpret the CBA language governing the "over 35" clause differently."

There's no other possible way to interpret that language than how it is interpreted above. If Slavoj Zizek, Ludwig Wittgenstein, and Saul Kripke sat around in a room debating that passage, they'd come up with the same meaning. In other words, the Flyers goofed - they forgot that it didn't matter when the player was signed, it mattered when his contract went into effect. This rule was to put in place to safeguard against this very scenario - a team signing an aging player for a front-loaded contract with years on it that neither side intended on honoring. Now it looks like the Flyers, rather than anticipating Pronger being an asset, anticipate him being a liability, and it may cost them a valued asset to expunge this error.

The lesson is: do not overestimate people's capacity for creativity and reasonable thinking. A lot of times what looks like an oversight is in fact an oversight. We like imagining the look on Holmgren's face as some obscure bean counter situation in the lowest dungeon of the Wachovia Center unfurls the parchment upon which the CBA is inscribed to the relevant passage, both eager to impress the great Overlord and afraid of the result as he reads aloud 50.2.a.iv. That scene surely beats the one we are trying to forestall ourselves from imagining - Chris Pronger holding the Stanley Cup as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers.

A Note On Expected Goals

2009-07-10T11:01:00.000-07:00

Expected Goals has popped up around here lately - it's something devised in-house and can be brutally wrong, but it gives at least a guideline of what to expect of new players on new teams.

Expected Goals is basically:

(Expected Shooting Percentage) * (Expected Shots On Goal)

Expected Shooting Percentage is (Average Shooting Percentage Since Lockout) * (% Difference Between Shooting Percentage Of Old Team and New Team in 2008-09 Season)

Expected Shots on Goal is (Average SOG/Game Since Lockout) * (% Difference Between Shots On Goal of Old Team and New Team in 2008-09 Season) * (% Increase/Decrease Expected As A Result of Aging)

There's lots of adjustments that can and should be made here, but they are quite difficult - they include time on ice adjustments, power play time on ice adjustments, power play strength adjustments, penalty killing time on ice adjustments, strength of expected linemates, and so forth; not adjusting for these things likely skews things between 1-3 goals either way (but could vary things as much as 5-10 goals in extreme cases). Regardless, it's a reasonable ballpark metric, and is certainly more instructional than looking simply at the past.

Anatomy of an RFA Contract - C Dave Bolland

2009-07-07T10:27:00.001-07:00

It can be quite frustrating for a more passionate observer when less-informed fans discuss NHL contracts. This is no slight on the less informed - it is no surprise that they are either not interested or unaware of the minutiae of NHL contracts, because rarely do articles about the NHL speak in this fashion - this sort of analysis is too often absent. Regardless, when discussing an RFA contract, one should ask three relevant questions - then a follow-up:

1: Was the player arbitration-eligible?

2: How many (if any) UFA years did the contract signed extend through?

3: What are comparable RFA players around the league making?

Obviously, the second question should be asked much less awkwardly than it is asked here. Let us examine the contract of Dave Bolland, who signed for 16.875 million dollars over five years with the Blackhawks.

Was the player arbitration eligible?

Answer: No. Bolland signed an entry-level contract in 2007 age the age of 19 (or 20), and had 3 years of pro experience - a player who signs an entry-level contract between the ages of 18 and 20 needs to have 4 years of pro experience before opting for arbitration.

We ask this question because arbitration allows for a player to be paid more - players without arbitration eligibility essentially have no bargaining power. Their only recourse is to sign an offer sheet with another team (or in another league) - otherwise, it is basically 'take it or leave it' from their team's GM.

How many UFA years does this contract extend through?

Answer: One. Assuming UFA rules stay the same after the next CBA is signed, Bolland would have been eligible to be unrestricted in July 2013 - this contract extends through July 2014.

We ask this question because RFA players are cheaper than UFA players - signing a player through UFA years keeps his price down.

What are comparable players around the league making?

Answer: This is more difficult to say. Jordan Staal's contract no doubt had a hand in this - Staal is making $4M/season until 2013. Joe Pavelski signed a 2 year, 3.275 million dollar deal as a non-arbitration eligible player in 2008 - his next contract will likely pay him between 3.5 and 4.5 million dollars a season.

The fourth question is one that shouldn't necessarily be germane but becomes so:

Will the player get better during the course of the contract?

Answer: The Blackhawks have to hope so, and are certainly counting on it. Bolland had 1.37 Shots On Goal Per Game (hereafter S/G) last season - if he continues that rate, he is unlikely to score more than 20 goals a season. The good news for the Hawks is that Bolland did not receive much power play time - if he does next season, expect his S/G and goals to rise. The Hawks have to be hoping his S/G rises to around 2 - around 2, and Bolland should be expected to score between 16 and 24 goals a season in a normal year, and closer to 30 in an abnormal year (like this past one). Bolland already appears to be an excellent assist man, as he averages close to 1 every 3 games, so his normal season may look like 20 goals and 30 assists, an excellent output for a third line center.

Did the Hawks make a good deal?

Answer: Almost certainly not. They ate up 3 arbitration-eligible years, a UFA year, and an arbitration-ineligible year. They must have very high hopes indeed and worry that a 60 point season for Bolland would mean a favorable comparison to a contract like Jordan Staal's. But with a career S/G of 1.33 so far, it is unlikely that Bolland has such a large offensive output. It is hard to predict what the NHL landscape will look like in July 2014 when Bolland is an unrestricted free agent, but it's hard to imagine him getting offers well above $5 million per season if he ever makes it there, so basically all the money saved in season 5 of the deal (by paying RFA instead of UFA prices) equals the money squandered in season 1 by signing him to this long-term deal. The Hawks would likely have been better served to try to sign Bolland to a deal not unlike that of Joe Pavelski's - there's not enough NHL information to conclude that Bolland will certainly be with 3.375M per season, and with the Hawks being in enormous salary cap trouble in 2010-11, Bolland may be first on the chopping block if he does not produce.

State of The Blog Address 2

2009-07-06T10:17:00.000-07:00

After doing some thinking on the matter, I've decided to reconsider breaking down 100+ signings. I feel it would be repetitive and therefore ultimately not that interesting. Rather than shove out content, assembly-line style, I think there should be more of a focus on asking questions that I'm not sure I have the answer to, instead of pretending I have the answers to things which I don't.

Therefore, I will be going piecemeal around the league, dipping into RFAs, UFAs, and basically whatever strikes my fancy.

The Scott Gomez Trade - Acquiring a True Anchorage

2009-07-05T08:52:00.000-07:00

Montreal Acquires:

C Scott Gomez
LW Tom Pyatt
D Michael Busto

The New York Rangers Acquire:

LW/C Chris Higgins
D Pavel Valentenko
D Ryan McDonagh
D Doug Janik

Montreal's Take

C Scott Gomez

Age: 29 (30 in December)
Contract Status: Signed through 2013/14
Cap Hit: $7.357 M
Expected Goals: 18
Discipline: Low (T-9th among C with 30 Minors)
Physicality: Medium-Low

Scott Gomez's Corsi number is insanely high, likely one of the highest in the league at 323. The reason for this is simple - Gomez is not a traditional 'passer'. Looking around the league at players like Doug Weight and Adam Oates, they tended to average around 2 to 2.5 shots per game. Gomez is averaging 3+ post-lockout - last season Gomez was 16th in the league in shots on goal, 4th among centers. The downside is that many of Gomez's shots are very low-percentage shots or are attempts for his wingers to score on rebounds off his shots. Gomez therefore needs a very specific sort of player to play with him - he is far removed from his days of setting up Alexander Mogilny off one-timers at the top of the slot. With Montreal acquiring Mike Cammalleri and Brian Gionta for his wings, these players are well-suited to helping Gomez - Gionta was on Gomez's wing for 3 of his best seasons. Gomez may return to being a 20 goal 50 point type of player.

LW Tom Pyatt/D Michael Busto

Both are minor league depth - Busto played in the ECHL this season, and Pyatt had 37 points in the AHL as a 21/22 year old. Pyatt may have an NHL future, but it's unlikely that it's any more than as a depth winger.

The Rangers' Take

LW/C Chris Higgins

Age: 26 (27 next June)
Contract Status: Unsigned RFA, UFA in July 2010
Cap Hit: N/A
Expected Goals: 27
Discipline: High
Physicality: Medium-High

Higgins had by far the lowest shooting percentage of his career - his shooting percentage has dropped each year since the lockout. It's therefore a tad presumptuous to have his expected goals at 27; an adjustment may have to be made to Expected Goals for it to have any explanatory power. Higgins had little worth to the Habs if he was going to take them to arbitration - he's UFA in a year, and an arbitration price offers a small discount on what a free agent might cost.

D Ryan McDonagh

Age: 20
Contract Status: None; Still in NCAA

McDonagh was considered one of the Habs' top prospects, but he was 4th on his college team in scoring by defensemen - his strength must therefore be defense. Besides defensemen of the Paul Martin ilk who excel quietly at defense, we are prone to presuming that players cannot excel substantially at defense without also being at least competent at offense, especially at the amateur level.

D Pavel Valentenko

Age: 21 (22 in October)
Contract Status: Questionable

'Questionable' is written above because Valentenko defected from his AHL team and joined up with a KHL squad. It's unclear whether Valentenko intends to return to North America.

D Doug Janik

Age: 29 (30 next March)
Contract Status: UFA

We have no idea why Doug Janik was included in this deal - he was traded a day before the Rangers would lose his rights. Janik is a 7th/8th defensemen who could prove adequate for a team looking to save money.

Salary Cap Motivations

Scott Gomez's contract was one of the worst in the NHL when it was signed and that continues today - he has a 7.327 million dollar cap hit and has only scored more than 20 goals once. However, this free agent market is a terrible one for centers, and the Habs' top two centers for much of the season were UFA. The Habs therefore had several Faustian bargains at their disposal - either re-sign Saku Koivu, who is aged and cannot really carry a line at this point, or try to acquire a center, the owner of said center being likely not disposed to get rid of him. It's possible that the Habs knocked on Tampa's door and asked for Vincent Lecavalier - it's possible they knocked on Philly's door and asked for Daniel Briere. The Habs' one asset was salary cap room - they had almost 28 million dollars worth of it coming into this UFA period.

Scott Gomez also has one of the most salary cap favorable contracts in terms of payment. Gomez is owed $33.5 million in cash over the next 5 seasons - that's an average of 6.7 million, on a 7.327 cap hit. Even better for the Habs is the fact that Gomez is only owed 9 million cash spread over the final two seasons of the deal - it would not surprise us at all if Gomez were included in a trade for Vincent Lecavalier in the next 2 or 3 years, or even in the near future.

From the Rangers' perspective, they dispose of a dirty contract, pick up an asset in Higgins, and scrounge up two other assets in McDonagh and Valentenko. The Rangers cleared off salary cap room which they immediately gave to Marian Gaborik - Gaborik lacks the durability of Gomez, but he is the elite-level scorer that the Rangers have lacked since Jaromir Jagr departed. Unfortunately, they are now lacking at center and do not possess the money to remedy that.

Final Thought

Montreal made a very creative deal to get a valuable contract and an asset that simply was not on the market. They likely overpaid for the privilege, however - it is hard to imagine that Glen Sather insisted on McDonagh being in the deal. Scott Gomez tends to be a player who looks better than his results - a few times a season his end-to-end rushes will result in thrilling goals, but they also result in blueline turnovers leading to goals the other way.

The Chris Pronger Trade - Great Deal, Or The Greatest Deal?

2009-07-04T15:47:00.000-07:00

Terms

To Philadelphia:

D Chris Pronger
LW Ryan Dingle

To Anaheim:

RW Joffrey Lupul
D Luca Sbisa
1st round pick in 2009 (21st overall)
1st round pick in 2010

Philadelphia's Take

D Chris Pronger

Age: 34 (35 in October)
Contract Status: Signed Through 2009-10
Cap Hit: $6.25M
Durability: Medium
Time On Ice: Very High (26:56, 2nd in NHL)
Offensive Ability: High (11 goals, 48 points, 14th in NHL)
Defensive Ability: Medium (Avg QualComp, Avg QualTeam, Avg Corsi Number)
Discipline: Low (39 Minors, 8th in NHL)
Physicality: Medium (78 Hits, 92nd in NHL)

Pronger's low number of hits was surprising, but it appears Anaheim may have been severely undercounted in that department, as their top player was 78th in the league.

LW Ryan Dingle

Summary: Dingle is an organizational player - he is 25 and just completed his first full season in the AHL.

Anaheim's Take

RW Joffrey Lupul

Age: 25 (26 in September)
Contract Status: Signed Through 2012-13
Cap Hit: $4.25MM
Expected Goals: 25
Discipline: Medium
Physicality: Medium

Lupul's contract compares favorably with Brian Gionta, his closest comparable on the open market this off-season. Lupul has had a strange up-and-down career; his SOG and TOI fluctuate quite wildly for a young player. If he can settle in around 3.3 SOG and a 10.5 shooting percentage, he could flirt with 30 goals most seasons.

Philadelphia had to get rid of this contract, as it was the least valuable in their eyes: youngster Claude Giroux should be able to fill in most of this production for around a 6th of the price.

The problem for Anaheim is that they have 3 legitimate top six RWs and only one LW - either Lupul or Selanne will have to convert to LW, or the team will be going particularly heavy on RWs.

D Luca Sbisa

Age: 19
Contract Status: RFA, Signed through 2010-11
Cap Hit: $875K

Rather than yammer on about stats, let us simply talk about the fact that Sbisa played 38 games for a playoff team as an 18 year old. There are very few players who've done this in the last 15 years and did not at least become NHL regulars - Steve Eminger is one, David Tanabe another, but both promotions were likely the result of poor management. Sbisa's junior statistics suggest a player who is very capable at the offensive and defensive end - an unremarkable but solid defenseman in the Teppo Numminen mold (albeit with more penalties). Sbisa may not play on Anaheim this year, but he is controlled for at least 6 more seasons, making him an enormous addition to an Anaheim team whose prospects are somewhat weak.

2 1st Round Picks: The Ducks traded the 1st pick they received down and selected C/RW Kyle Palmieri and D Matthew Clark with what they received. The Flyers' pick will likely be 24th or lower next season - it is hard to gauge the strength of a draft a year before, but most reports are that it will not be as strong as this year's.

Summary

There are no 'winners' or 'losers' in trades, not in a salary capped league. We can safely say that Anaheim received more than would have been expected. Let's just go over pros and cons for both teams:

Philadelphia Pro: Receive one of the best defensemen in the league for only one asset off their roster, one which they were likely trading anyway. Receive a player whose contract is expiring at the end of the season; Philadelphia has 45.6 million dollars committed to next year's team, with Lupul's deal that's almost 50 million; if the salary cap were set at between 50 and 53 million in 2010-11, the team would be in serious cap trouble. Therefore, Pronger's contract only being for one year is an asset to the Philadelphia organization, and gives them an excellent chance to make a Stanley Cup run.

Philadelphia Con: Trade their best D prospect in Sbisa and give up 2 years worth of 1sts. Philadelphia has some very strong prospects in the minors, but unless Philly drafts particularly well in the later rounds in the next two seasons, that depth is likely to slacken.

Anaheim Pro: Receive an excellent D prospect, a valuable (to them) RW, and a lot of depth and trading chips for the future, for one player who was likely walking at the end of next season regardless. Anaheim now has a ton of assets with which to play around and a lot of salary cap room - suspicion is they won't use it this season, but if the franchise becomes solvent again, it certainly can.

Anaheim Con: Give up legitimate chance at Stanley Cup this season in order to rebuild. 26 minutes a game on defense just got traded, and Anaheim's depth at that position is not particularly strong or NHL-ready at this point.

Conclusion

In all, both sides did a good job getting what they needed out of the other.

The Non-Tendered - Discarded Players Can Be An Inexpensive Source of Cheese

2009-07-02T07:04:00.001-07:00

As a little refresher on NHL capology and contractology - restricted free agents' rights are retained by extending them a qualifying offer. A qualifying offer (or QO hereafter) must be a 10% raise on the previous contract if that contract is below the NHL average. As a result of the bad economy and salary cap ceiling, teams are choosing now not to give a QO to players who fail to live up to expectations, choosing instead to look elsewhere. Many of them also have handshake agreements to re-sign with their previous team, as Andy Greene, Erik Christensen, and Chris Thorburn have already done. But let's look at the best of the best unqualified players - these players may be coming off the scrapheap to help your team:

Steve Eminger, D - Steve Eminger was inexplicably promoted into the NHL by the Washington Capitals in 2002 as an 18 year old. From there, he languished in Washington, never quite living up to the promise of a player promoted to the NHL as a teenager. Eminger was traded 3 times last season, but his numbers are not terrible - his GA/60M are certainly good for a terrible team like Tampa, where he spent most of his time (averaging 23 minutes a game). Florida has to be interested in retaining Eminger, but teams in need of defense could and have been doing far worse than Eminger.

Brendan Bell, D - Plucked from the Leafs, Bell scored 6 goals in 53 games for the Senators, including 5 power play goals. He will be UFA next year, but Bell has some minor upside as a PP QB. Again, teams can and will do worse.

Jeremy Williams, RW - Williams scored 27 goals in 46 games in the AHL this past season. The knock on him is that he is small and slow, but he certainly has a scoring touch. Some teams insist on spending money on veteran scorers - Williams could provide 15 goals for very cheap.

Joakim Lindstrom, C - Lindstrom had 20 points in 44 games for the Coyotes averaging 15 minutes per game - this after being a point-a-game player in the AHL. One never knows when they will find the next Rich Peverley - he could be a good pickup for a team like Nashville looking to save some $.

Jeff Woywitka, D - Woywitka arrived in St. Louis in the Pronger deal and never quite established himself. He's been a +12 player in the last 3 years, with decent offensive numbers as well - 29 assists in 152 NHL games. With how much money depth defenders are signing for, around $1 million for a gamble on Jeff Woywitka could be a prudent move.

Dan Fritsche RW/C - Fritsche was traded twice last year and never really established himself on either squad. He is still only 23 years old, and while he likely doesn't have any upside as a 2nd line player, he scored 12 goals in 59 games as a 21 year old.

Non-tendered players aren't likely to put a team over the hump for the playoffs or a Stanley Cup - most of them have obvious flaws and there's a reason why they weren't given a QO. They can, however, offer better solutions to some problems than normal UFAs, and teams should be a little more willing to gamble on something that isn't a sure thing.

State Of The Blog Address

2009-06-30T19:11:00.000-07:00

Well, you've come this far, and if you've come all this way, maybe you'll go a little further.

I've finally finished all 30 teams - when I set out, I had no idea I was going to spend this much time on this project, but here we are.

My plan for the next few days is mostly to sit and wait. I'm going to take a break tomorrow, I think, just drink in the entire day. July 2, I will look into the best non-tendered free agents, as there's sure to be some interesting items available. July 3, 4, 5, I will break down the Pronger and Gomez trades, as well as any potential Heatley trade that may occur in the next 2 hours. The rest of July will be devoted to breaking down the top 26 UFA contracts signed, by cost/year - it will likely start with Bouwmeester and go from there. August will be spent looking at the top 25 RFA contracts signed this summer - arbitration awards come down in mid-August, so hopefully there's grist for that mill then. September will look at other deals that may have slipped through the cracks - UFA, RFA, trades whatever.

I'm not sure about the format I'm going to use - perhaps I will work that out tomorrow as well. I hope to incorporate advanced statistics into it, but I'm not quite sure how I will do that as yet.

I hope everyone enjoys reading, and certainly feel free to comment on anything. Have a happy Free Agent Frenzy day.

The Washington Capitals - Ovechkining Their Pulse

2009-06-30T10:28:00.000-07:00

Introduction

The Washington Capitals made the 2nd round this past season, their best finish since 1998. The team has arguably the NHL's best player in Alexander Ovechkin and a host of young stars. The salary cap monster rises quickly though, and the signings George McPhee have made to augment this club have almost all gone poorly. The Capitals will have some difficult decisions to make in the coming months - a lot of what happens to the franchise depends on how much money Ted Leonsis is willing to spend.

Capitals Salaries
(Estimates in Green, Red Field indicates UFA)

Wow, That's A Lot Of Terrible Contracts: Indeed it is, Sherman. With Nylander, Pothier, Poti, and Chris Clark, the Capitals paid around 13.5 million dollars for almost zero production. Poti was an effective defensive D-man, but he's still overpaid as his once-promising offensive game has completely deserted him. Nylander was a healthy scratch for much of the season, and Pothier and Clark spent most of the season injured, and weren't particularly good when healthy. At least two of these guys have to pick their game up for the Capitals to contend next season.

Projected Lines for 2009-10

Ovechkin-Backstrom-?
Semin-Nylander-Fehr
Fleischmann-Laich-Clark
Gordon-Steckel-Bradley

Morrisonn-Green
Poti-Erskine
Pothier-Jurcina

Varlamov
Theodore

Future Watch

Forwards: LW Chris Bourque has been knocking on the door. He's waiver-eligible so he will likely be on the roster in some capacity. LW Oskar Osala got a look last season as well.

Defense: Karl Alzner had an impressive pro debut and spent 30 games with the Capitals. If the Capitals can find another home for Brian Pothier, Alzner should slide right into his place.

Goalie: Michal Neuvirth was the Bears' playoff goalie for their run in the playoffs - he took huge strides forward and should be NHL ready in two years.

Trades

The Capitals may be looking to fob off Brian Pothier on another team - his 2.5 million might be useful somewhere else or on someone else. Unless the Capitals are also packaging a prospect along with Nylander or Theodore, they are unlikely to be able to trade these players.

Free Agent Discussion

Money to Spend: 5.9 million
Holes to Fill: 1

The Capitals have more than one hole to fill. With Sergei Fedorov and Viktor Kozlov both headed to the KHL, they may be looking at upgrading their 2nd line - Nylander has shown no ability to play 2nd line center at this point in his career. Regardless, there's a ton of wingers available - Erik Cole, Maxim Afinogenov, Brian Gionta, etc. who could fill this spot. It's sure to be a huge career boost, so a make-good 1 year deal wouldn't be unexpected. The Capitals cannot get too crazy in free agency - they only have 9 players signed for 2010-11.

Conclusion

The Capitals likely want to upgrade at center, wing, and defense, but barring some surprising trades, that won't be happening. They may be missing their window - Nicklas Backstrom will get a ton of money as an RFA in 2010-11, Alex Semin will too, and the team will be soon sunk by the terrible contracts they've signed to players like Nylander. Somehow getting rid of Theodore or Nylander's deal, even if it means sacrificing 1st round picks down the road, would be ideal - the team could load up this off-season.

Outlook

The Capitals are not among the league's elite, but they're only a step or two away. As long as Ovechkin and Backstrom are there, the team should be at least in the playoffs, but a Stanley Cup may be a long way off.

The Vancouver Canucks - Bland and Blander

2009-06-29T07:55:00.000-07:00

Introduction

The Vancouver Canucks have a difficult and exciting off-season ahead of them. With the Sedin twins supposedly set to test the market, the Canucks may have to bring in top notch free agents in order to replace them. Despite the fact that it is very unlikely that the Sedins actually end up leaving Vancouver, the Canucks still have a lot to build on from their 2nd round loss this season.

Vancouver Salaries

So Much Room!: The Vancouver Canucks are incredibly well set up over the next few years. Except for the fact that they won't have any players.

Projected Lines for 2009-10

?-?-Bernier
Burrows-Kesler-Demitra
Raymond-?-Hansen
Hordichuk-Johnson-Wellwood

Bieksa-?
Salo-Edler
Mitchell-O'Brien

Luongo
?

Future Watch

Forward: Winger Michael Grabner had almost a goal every other game and should be ready to fill a slot on the big club. Center Cody Hodgson had a huge season in junior but is likely a season or two away from the NHL.

Defense: The unfortunate death of Luc Bourdon seriously impacted the Canucks' future on D, as he was their top prospect. There seems to be no one close to making a significant dent on D.

Goalie: Cory Schneider is as NHL-ready as he'll ever be.

Trades

Kevin Bieksa has already been traded twenty times by Eklund, Mason Raymond 15 by Canucks fans. The Canucks don't really have the kind of asset that needs trading, but they may see fit to exchange a defenseman for a center.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 20.0 million

Holes To Fill: 5

The Best Of The Best: This blog has talked about all the mediocre free agents out there in one post or another - if one searches the blog one can no doubt find stuff about them. But now we're going to discuss the Best:

Marian Hossa (7/52.5) - Hossa won't have a real center here, and he's not a perfect fit. He didn't have a real center in Ottawa either. He'd be expected to score 35-40 goals every season.

Henrik/Daniel Sedin (9/47), (9/47) - Identical 9 year deals for the Sedin Brothers break down like this: 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 2. Only Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver realistically have the room to sign the Sedin Brothers without major moves - they will probably end up back here.

Marian Gaborik (6/39.5) - Gaborik also wouldn't have a real center, but he's a good enough scorer to not need one. The key, of course, is keeping him healthy

Jay Bouwmeester (8/60) - A coming home of sorts for Bouwmeester, Vancouver can truly blow him out of the water with an offer, if they so choose. It does mean losing the Sedins, however.

Scott Niedermayer/Rob Niedermayer (1/6) (1/2) - It's unclear whether the Niedermayer brothers will play in Anaheim this season - Scott should have a decision on whether they will by July 2014. Regardless, Vancouver is closest to home for the Niedermayer brothers, and they may lure him away.

Conclusion

GM Mike Gillis has some large decisions to make. He needs at least one center and possibly two from a market that likely won't supply many of them. He must decide whether he has to replace Mattias Ohlund, or try to re-sign him. His team has gotten bogged down in the second round two seasons of the last three - is it a Stanley Cup contender? Gillis has one of the hardest jobs this off-season - what he does will either propel the Canucks into the tier of elite clubs with San Jose, Detroit, and Pittsburgh, or condemn them to the second division for several more seasons.

Outlook

The Canucks will be trapped in the second division for several more seasons - they lack the elite-level forwards that the best teams have nowadays. If the Canucks are to go anywhere in the post-season, it will be because of Luongo's stellar play.

The Toronto Maple Leafs - Buying A Championship?

2009-06-28T07:40:00.000-07:00

Introduction

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in an incredibly interesting position. They have more money coming available in 2010-11 than anyone in the NHL. Brian Burke has been quoted that he will be 'very active' when free agency begins on July 1. The Leafs are actually the team with the room to make it work - acquiring Jay Bouwmeester and Ilya Kovalchuk is a distinct possibility. The problem? The Leafs don't seem to have any players either. Right now, only 5 players are signed for 2010-11. Brian Burke has his work cut out for him. Perhaps he will stop talking to the press for a few minutes to run his team.

Toronto Salaries

Projected Lines For 2009-10

Blake-?-Ponikarovsky
Hagman-Grabovski-Stempniak
?-Stajan-Kulemin
Mayers-Mitchell-Hollweg

Kaberle-Schenn
Kubina-Finger
Van Ryn-White

Toskala
?

Future Watch

The Leafs just drafted C Nazem Kadri - he is likely a few years away. LW Jiri Tlusty had a point a game in the AHL and should finally stick in Toronto. RW Jeremy Williams had 27 goals in 46 AHL games - if he's not a Leaf next year, someone will likely give him a shot. G Justin Pogge was terrible in his NHL stint - it's unclear whether he has a future with the Leafs.

Trades

Wheeler/Dealer Burke will have no problem swinging trades, except for those pesky no-trade clauses left by his precedessor like so many single-edged swords (pointed right at him). The two most likely players to move, Pavel Kubina and Tomas Kaberle, also have no-trade clauses. It'd be surprising if Burke didn't make a trade or two before the season. Next year, when Burke has somewhere between 28 and 31 million dollars available and most teams are scrambling around for cap space, Burke could be a repository for bad contracts.

Free Agent Discussion

Money to Spend: $14.5 million
Holes To Fill: 3

While it says the Leafs have 3 holes to fill, they could conceivably upgrade everywhere. They lack top-end talent at every position and have to be interested in all of the best free agents. They are one of the few teams who can legitimately enter their name in the Marian Hossa sweepstakes. Were there a top-line center available this off-season, Toronto would have to be in the discussion. The Leafs may do what the Kings did two years ago - sign people to one-year contracts and attempt to trade them at the trade deadline if they're out of the playoffs.

Essentially, the Leafs can't be ruled out from getting anyone, so discussing who they may get is a pointless exercise.

Conclusion

The Leafs are in an incredibly advantageous position to quickly retool and actually become a formidable threat in the Northeast Division in 2 years. Brian Burke has to be careful not to try to put it all together quickly - the Leafs don't have a lot of prospect depth. This is still a team 2 or 3 years away from serious playoff contention barring some particularly swashbuckling moves from The Great and Terrible Burke.

Outlook

Don't invest in the Yonge Street Parade Corporation quite yet, but the Leafs actually have a positive outlook for the first time since the lockout ended.

The Tampa Bay Lightning - Saw VII

2009-06-27T12:50:00.000-07:00

We all learned that Oren Koules is the producer of the highly successful Saw franchise - now he's put a horror show on ice.

Best Quote Ever From The General Manager of the Lightning, In a Fax Sent To All NHL GMs:

"Please be advised that in order to avoid any confusion over the next couple of weeks, as GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning Organization I am the only person authorized to speak on behalf of the team with regard to player transactions," the email read.

"No other person is authorized to negotiate player transactions. Any questions, feel free to call."

This has a hilarious military strongman sound to it - 'The Rebels have not seized the capital, and we will crush them before the rainy season.'

Tampa Bay Salary

Projected Lines in 2009-10

This indicates a player who is RFA in 2009

This indicates a player who is UFA in 2010

This indicates a player who is RFA in 2010

Malone-Lecavalier-St. Louis

Prospal-Stamkos-Karsums

?-Halpern-Artyuhkin

?-Szczechura-Downie

Meszaros-Ranger

Lashoff-Kraijcek

Smaby-?

Smith

Raamo

Future Watch

Victor Hedman will jump right on to the Lightning defense next season and could be one of their best D men by season's end. Besides very high draft picks, Tampa is traditionally horrible at drafting.

Trades

It is rumored that Vincent Lecavalier is on the block, but unless Tampa is absolutely desperate to rid themselves of his contract, he is unlikely to move. Vaclav Prospal and Ryan Malone are more likely to be dealt.

Free Agent Discussion

Tampa is not likely to sign any free agents beyond depth players.

Conclusion

Tampa is a bad team, they have an excellent top two lines but a lot of dross below that. Expect Steven Stamkos to get better, and expect the goaltenders to seek therapy by November. Tampa led the league in 'Trades That Didn't Make Any F'Ing Sense' last season - they traded Dan Boyle and Brad Lukowich for Matt Carle, Ty Wishart, and a 1st and 2010 4th. They traded the 1st for Andrei Meszaros, whom they summarily overpaid. They traded Matt Carle for Steve Eminger and Steve Downie. They traded Eminger for Noah Welch, who is a UFA. So they traded Boyle for Meszaros, Downie, Wishart and around 40 games of Steve Eminger. Brilliant work!

Outlook

We'll always have 2004.

The St. Louis Blues - Mmmm, Playoffs

2009-06-26T06:54:00.000-07:00

(Editor's Note: Doing these long writeups every day, I kind of feel like Homer Simpson eating 64 slices of American cheese. Sure it starts off great, but eventually you just kind of feel sick and full and empty at the same time. God bless any of you who are still reading all of these.)

St. Louis Salaries

Oh Wait, Wrong Image...

TJ Oshie and Patrik Berglund Are Going To Be Awesome, If They Aren't Already: TJ Oshie had 39 points in 57 games in his rookie season, and Patrik Berglund notched 47 in 76 games. They may have a little backsliding this year, but going forward both may be stars.

The Blues Are Really, Really Well Set Up for 2010-11: 10 forwards and 5 defensemen already 'under contract' and only at 32 million leaves the Blues an absolute ton of room.

Projected Lines For 2009-10

Kariya-McDonald-Boyes
Tkachuk-Berglund-Oshie
Perron-Steen-Backes
?-McClement-Crombeen

Brewer-Jackman
Johnson-McKee
Polak-Colaiacovo

Mason
?

Future Watch

Forwards: No one on the immediate horizon.

Defensemen: Alex Pietrangelo got a look with the Blues last season - he is now 19 years old, and St. Louis thinks he is a future star. They're probably not wrong.

Goalie: Ben Bishop and Marek Schwarz both played for the Blues last season, but both had sub-.900 save percentages at the AHL level.

Trades

The Blues have a lot of depth - players like Jeff Woywitka, Carlo Colaiacovo, B.J. Crombeen, etc. may be rather desirable to other clubs. The Blues could move these players for younger, depth-type prospects if they try to nab a top free agent. However, with the Blues in an insanely favorable position for 2009-10, they may just sit on their hands this season. Eric Brewer and Jay McKee might be fobbed off if the Blues are really looking to make a free agent splash. With almost $10 million in room under the cap, the Blues can make bad contracts disappear (for a price). It's an excellent time to be a Blues fan.

Free Agency

Money To Spend: 10.2 million dollars
Holes to Fill: 2

It's really hard to know what the Blues want or need in free agency. They can certainly fill out their roster - so they have no 'pressing' needs. They could even be a player for Bouwmeester - history suggests the Blues love their free agents. Ideally, the Blues strategy should be to simply jump on a free agent whose price has slipped due to lack of demand. There's no need for them to nose into the game when prices are high early in July - wait until late July or August to pick off a guy without a home.

It's also worth noting that the Blues are one of the very few teams who could sign an RFA to an offer sheet this off-season - it may make sense for them to do it.

The Blues are also in need of a backup goalie - may one land safely in St. Louis

Conclusion

The Blues shocked everyone in the NHL by making the playoffs despite season-ending injuries to Kariya, Johnson, and McDonald. All three of those players should be healthy this year, so it will be interesting to see how St. Louis fares. Going forward, they have a ton of salary cap room, so Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility next season, and they could even be players for Marian Hossa or Jay Bouwmeester if they want to kick off the deep playoff runs early. The window is so short in today's NHL - they just might see fit to do that.

Outlook

The Blues may not make the playoffs next year, but it will be surprising if the St. Louis Blues don't make at least a Stanley Cup Final in the next 7 years.

The San Jose Sharks - Tanking In The Postseason

2009-06-25T10:31:00.000-07:00

San Jose Prolegomena - The Real Culprits

San Jose cruised to the President's Trophy this season posting 117 points in the regular season. One thing that might have gone unnoticed during that regular season was the play of one Brian Boucher, who is seemingly a plucky up-and-comer despite being 32 and resolutely a career backup: Boucher posted a 2.18 GAA and .917 save percentage while starter Evgeni Nabokov posted a .910 save percentage with a 2.44 GAA. Some of this should no doubt be attributed to inferior competition - if Boucher starts mostly against the dregs, his GAA and SV% should be slightly inflated. However, Boucher filled in for Nabokov during an injury and the team didn't suffer any lapses.

People like to point to Joe Thornton as the culprit for the Sharks' playoff failures, and he does have to take some blame, certainly; his career shooting percentage in the regular season is 14.9, but in the playoffs it dips to 8.0. Worse still, as a member of the Sharks, it's 6.5 in 41 playoffs games, whereas it's 14.4% over that time in the regular season. Playoff shooting percentage tend to be lower - defenses are better, as well as goaltenders, plus there tend to be less penalties, so let's assume that Joe's expected shooting percentage is 11.5%. The odds of this occurring purely randomly, of Joe shooting 6.5% over that time assuming a normal distribution of shots, is 4.5%, and the odds of him shooting 6.5% or worse is only 8%. Something more is likely going on here. However, Joe Thornton's expected goals over this time frame are around 11, so the Sharks have missed out on 5 goals over the 4 playoff years that Joe Thornton has been around.

Let's look at another player - one Evgeni Nabokov, who was mentioned above. League average save percentage is .906 in the regular season. However, it tends to rise in the post-season for the same reason shooting percentage falls - fewer penalties, tighter defense. Let's assume that expected save percentages are .915. How does Evgeni Nabokov stack up over that time frame?

First of all, it's worth noting that Evgeni Nabokov didn't even play in 2005-06 because he was so terrible during the regular season that the Sharks started Vesa Toskala instead. However, Nabokov has a .908 save percentage over that time. It's worth noting here that the Sharks probably increase save percentage somewhat - to what extent won't be investigated here, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Sharks' expected save percentage for their goalies was .002 to .005 higher. Regardless, .908 over the course of that time versus the .915 that's expected. Evgeni Nabokov faced 815 playoff shots, and stopped 740 of them. Had he stopped the league average, that would be 745.7 saves - a difference of 5.7 goals.

Conclusion: Evgeni Nabokov has been just as responsible for the Sharks' playoff failures as Joe Thornton. He deserves just as much blame. If both players had played up to reasonable standards, the Sharks might have advanced farther in the playoffs.

Sharks' Salaries

How's It Looking? Not great. No Rob Blake and the team's only got 6 million left to spend, and that's in the best case scenario. The good news is that the Sharks have a lot of bodies lying around who are cheap and can play on the bottom lines, so at least they don't have to waste money there.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Marleau-Thornton-Setoguchi
Michalek-Pavelski-Clowe
Mitchell-?-Cheechoo
Shelley-Goc-?

Boyle-Vlasic
Ehrhoff-Murray
Lukowich-?

Nabokov
?

Future Watch

The Sharks always have players in their pipeline - LW Jamie McGinn played 35 games for the Sharks and should be considered a shoo-in if a spot on the LW opens up. RW Riley Armstrong is waiver-eligible this season and has improved each season in the AHL - this may be his chance at the the big time. Defenseman Derek Joslin had 11 goals in the minors and could also be ready for the NHL.

Trades

The Sharks are heavily involved in trade rumors - whether it's trading Patrick Marleau or Ryane Clowe or whomever else, they are expected to make a deal in the next few days. Dealing Clowe appears to make little sense - he probably hasn't reached his full potential yet and the Sharks can likely negotiate a reasonable deal with him. Jonathan Cheechoo has to be considered trade bait - the former 50 goal scorer only managed 12 last season and may need that famous 'change of scenery'.

Free Agent Discussion

3rd Line Center

San Jose may be interested in the Pahlsson/Madden/Malhotra/Peca/Moore mix out there. Dominic Moore looks like a better fit for them than anyone else. Marcel Goc appears to have been the player that filled this hole during the regular season more than anyone else.

Goalie

If there's any justice, Evgeni Nabokov will be kicked to the curb for something halfway decent, but that doesn't seem possible. The Sharks still need a backup - Boucher may get a look once again as he was certainly capable during his stint.

Conclusion

The San Jose Sharks were once the healthiest team under the cap - no longer. Teams get expensive quickly. While they are certainly in decent shape, it remains to be seen if they can slide Rob Blake under their cap. They are still one of the best organizations at weaning young talent, and despite their lack of playoff success in the past, they've still got a bright future.

Outlook

Stanley Cup contender with a few tweaks.

The Pittsburgh Penguins - Champions, At Short Last

2009-06-24T06:24:00.000-07:00

Pittsburgh Prolegomena - Having Good Wingmen

In 2003-04, the Pittsburgh Penguins finished last in the league, 23-47-8-4. The top nine scorers were under 30 - only two of them are still playing in the NHL. Only nine players who suited up for this team played a game in the NHL this past season and only three of them for Pittsburgh. They were awful - young and awful, with castaway veterans sprinkled in, and little hope of getting better.

Buoyed by the lockout's institution of a salary cap and the addition of young phenom Sidney Crosby, the Penguins actually began spending money. They embarked on a strategy which they have continued until now - go out and find your washed-up wingers, your former goal scorers yearning to breathe free, and stick them with Sidney Crosby. So they signed Zigmund Palffy, John Leclair, and Mark Recchi, all former All-Stars, and waited and hoped. It didn't take - Palffy retired midway through the season and Recchi got traded at the deadline after the team was woefully unsuccessful. In 2006-07, the Penguins did not really use this strategy - they re-signed Recchi, but John Leclair retired in the middle of the season. The team brought in Gary Roberts at the trading deadline as they cruised to their first playoff berth since 2001. In 2007-08, they brought in Stanley Cup champion RW Petr Sykora, fresh off a disappointing year with Edmonton, and of course acquired Marian Hossa at the trading deadline, sending away their young wingers who'd perhaps become overvalued due to the presence of Crosby and Malkin. This year, however, was their 'finest' year yet - they nabbed Ruslan Fedotenko and Miroslav Satan in free agency, then latched on to Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin at the trading deadline.

What all these players have in common is that they were almost all coming off down years, or incredibly old, or both. The Penguins didn't care that Ruslan Fedotenko only had 28 goals in his last two seasons combined, or that he was a healthy scratch twice for the Lightning in their last playoff year. They knew he had some skill and gave him a one-year contract to see if he could recapture the magic that led to his 26 goal season in 2005-06. While he didn't replicate this in the regular season, in the post season Fedotenko was tied for 4th on the team in goals and points, scoring 7 goals and adding 7 assists in the 24 Pittsburgh Stanley Cup games. Miro Satan and Petr Sykora were decidedly less successful in the post-season, but Sykora in particular contributed during the season - for a Pittsburgh team that was on the outside looking in at the playoff picture for much of the season, that must have been a boost.

The lesson here is simple: acquire wingers cheaply, let them play with Crosby and Malkin, they'll play well, and if they demand too much money, let them go and find new players whom no one wants who can still be useful in the right organization. This should be a blueprint for all organizations who have a particular item who is made excellent by pieces around him - Minnesota shouldn't pay dearly for goaltending, for example. San Jose shouldn't go nuts when players score on a line with Joe Thornton.

Pittsburgh Salaries

Lots of Names Missing There: UFAs from the Cup winner are: Miro Satan, Ruslan Fedotenko, Petr Sykora, Bill Guerin, Craig Adams, Hal Gill, Rob Scuderi, and Phillipe Boucher. Baseball Prospectus once said that most championship teams hoard the players from the victorious squad as though only they possess the magic of title-winning. GM Ray Shero has to tread lightly here - all his players will now be overrated and almost all of them will sign bad contracts.

Projected Lines for 2009-10

Kunitz-Crosby-?
Dupuis-Malkin-?
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Godard-Talbot-?

Gonchar-Orpik
Letang-?
Eaton-Goligoski

Fleury
?

Future Watch: Eric Tangradi and Luca Caputi are likely the Penguins' best prospects but neither should be in Pittsburgh next year. The Penguins have traded off many of their draft picks in recent years to augment their team - there's not much forthcoming.

Trades

The Penguins should pursue getting rid of Chris Kunitz but that's not likely to happen. Pascal Dupuis was a healthy scratch at points during the playoffs, he may be on the way out also.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 8.3 million
Holes to Fill: 5

1st Line RW

Alexei Kovalev (4/20) - Kovalev had his best years with Pittsburgh. They may lack the money for Alexei, but he's a tremendously skilled player who can certainly score 30 goals with Sidney Crosby.
Brian Gionta (4/14) - Gionta scored 48 goals in a season with Scott Gomez's buttery setups - could he do so also with Crosby?
Erik Cole (3/10.5) - Cole had a down year - he might even be convinced to sign for 2 years. He's a big body who can make space for Crosby to operate.
Bill Guerin (2/6) - Dollar Bill is probably the most likely player to fill this role, although emptor should certainly be caveat - he turns 39 in November.

2nd line RW

Anyone can really go here, but the five most interesting names are:

Ruslan Fedotenko (3/7.5) - Ruslan's overvalued due to his 2 Stanley Cup Championships - he certainly steps it up in big games, but he's not so good during the regular season it seems.
Mikael Samuelsson (3/6.5) - Okay, so Mikael's first pass with the Penguins wasn't great (22 GP, 2 G, -21, in 2003). The Red Wings resuscitated him, making him into a solid scoring threat that happens to shoot a ton. It's not really in the Pens' playbook to get a guy who is probably overrated at this moment, but who knows, maybe they want to steal a player from the team they beat in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Todd Bertuzzi (2/4) - Bertuzzi's played for 5 teams since the lockout and hasn't impressed any of them. Calgary's probably not going to bring him back - why not try him out with Malkin or Crosby? He could be a 25 goal scorer on their wings.
Maxim Afinogenov (2/3.5) - Afinogenov has little finish but he can play in a high-powered offense., and it's hard to believe that the skills that led him to score a point a game after the first two post-lockout seasons have completely dissipated. Afinogenov is exactly the sort of player Pittsburgh has been signing of late.
Mark Parrish (1/.8) - Parrish is only 31, his career should not be over. He doesn't do very much well, but he's still an excellent tip man in front of the net. If Pittsburgh signed him, it would not be shocking for him to score 20 goals.

4th line RW

Tom Kostopoulos (2/2.2) - Former Penguin is a ferocious hitter who can chip in a goal or two.

Craig Adams (2/1.5) - Adams is the fringiest of fringe players but he has 2 Stanley Cup rings and can certainly kill some penalties. He was also born in Brunei and went to Harvard.
Brian Willsie (1/.6) - Ultra-fringe player manages to be in the NHL somehow.

Defense

Derek Morris (3/7) - Morris was once thought to be a top defenseman, but he's spent the equivalent of 40 years wandering in the deserts of Phoenix. He could re-acquire some verve playing for a Cup champion.
Rob Scuderi (3/6.5) - Scuderi earned his money with his kick-save in the waning seconds on Johan Franzen. There's not much to suggest he's that good, he's already 30, and provides very little on the offensive side of the puck - he has 3 goals in 300 career games. This is the kind of mistake Cup winners typically make.
Nick Boynton (2/4) - Boynton is a strong defensive player who takes the body - with Gonchar, Letang, and Goligoski on the backline, there isn't really a need for an offensive guy.
Hal Gill (2/3.5) - Gill is 33 and turns 34 in April - his career may be about over. Slow and prone to terrible decisions, his 6'7" height and tremendous reach is what keeps him employed.

Goalie

Any backup goalie will do.

Conclusion

With Evgeni Malkin's long-term extension kicking in, the Penguins are fast running out of money with which to sign players - it is quite fortunate they won the Stanley Cup this season, as they may have missed their window had they not accomplished it this year. Decisions like signing Alex Goligoski to a 3 year deal worth 5.6 million suggest that Pittsburgh is going to lay low this coming season - they'll be a contender, no doubt, but over-the-top moves like Kovalev are less likely - they will be hoping to strike gold in the next 2 or 3 seasons instead. With Letang and Goligoski potentially filling in for Gonchar's offense, the $5 million spent on him might instead be freed up to do something more interesting. In a salary-capped environment, teams must pick and choose when they are going to go for a Stanley Cup - next year will not likely be a year that Pittsburgh pulls out all the stops.

Outlook

The Penguins should be near the top of the Eastern Conference standings next season, and certainly shouldn't be ruled out of another Stanley Cup in the next 3 to 4 years.

The Phoenix Coyotes - A Desert Mirage

2009-06-23T13:05:00.001-07:00

Editorial Comment On The Phoenix Situation

The Phoenix Coyotes built the Jobing.com arena in Glendale, Arizona in 2003. It cost $180 million, all of it paid for by Glendale. Its tenants are the Phoenix Coyotes and an indoor lacrosse team. The NHL may overestimate the viability of hockey in Glendale, Arizona - the team may just be a huge money loser regardless of what happens. It would certainly be no tragedy to the citizens of Phoenix if the Coyotes skipped town. However, the NHL is trying to enforce two things here - A: that owners of a team cannot just move their teams without due process and B: that teams adhere to the promises made to communities. If the Coyotes leave, Glendale is out an enormous chunk of cash as the possessor of a near-useless arena. This will endanger publicly financed arena projects in the future.

It's entirely possible that the Phoenix Coyotes are not viable in Phoenix and this is just an enormous boondoggle that will play out over the course of several seasons, leaving a welfare team constantly rebuilding while they wait to bolt town. However, the NHL's other owners most certainly have a vested interest in leaving the team in Phoenix, if it is at all possible - they wish to have their cities continue to fund as much of their operations as possible.

Phoenix Salaries

Climbing All The Way To The Floor: The Coyotes owe almost $4 million in bonus payments, which should keep them right at the salary floor.

Projected Lines In 2009-10

Hanzal-Mueller-Doan
Upshall-Lombardi-Turris
Boedker-Lindstrom-Prucha
Dawes-Prust-Tikhonov

Jovanovski-Yandle
Michalek-Sauer
Hale-?

Bryzgalov
Montoya

Future Watch: The Coyotes pick 6th overall, and that pick will likely be forced right into the NHL.

Trades

The Phoenix Coyotes may want to make a trade. Good for them!

Free Agent Discussion

A player who played in the NHL last season doesn't realize it yet, but he will end up on the Phoenix Coyotes. The Grand Canyon is only a few short hours away!

Conclusion

The Phoenix Coyotes have an abundance of young players. A plethora. Unfortunately, they do not know what a plethora is - their team will be gutted once it gets any good and its best players sent out past Pillars of Hercules or Calgary or somewhere else. It will be interesting to see just where these young phenoms star; Phoenix isn't likely to be that place.

Outlook

Phoenix will not make the playoffs any time soon. They are a Mickey Mouse franchise.

The Philadelphia Flyers - Missing A Stanley Cup Shot Once Again?

2009-06-23T07:37:00.000-07:00

Flyers Prolegomena - How To Rebound From Being The Worst Team In Hockey

In 2006-07, everything went wrong for the Philadelphia Flyers. 44 players and 5 goalies suited up for a wretched squad that fired Ken Hitchcock after the first eight dreadful games only to barely improve on the mark he set. Flyer goalies had an .892 save percentage as the team allowed 302 goals. This wouldn't be so bad if the Flyers offense, usually a strength of the team, also hadn't deserted them - star LW Simon Gagne had a 40 goal season, but the rest of the team combined to score 173 goals. Young phenoms Jeff Carter and Mike Richards struggled. How could the team pull out of this funk? Simple - by importing all of the Nashville Predators' best players.

In February of 2007, Paul Holmgren sent Peter Forsberg to Nashville for Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, a 1st and a 3rd. He also sent veteran D Alexei Zhitnik to Atlanta for young stud D Braydon Coburn, and nabbed then-backup goaltender Martin Biron from the Sabres, whom he later signed. Holmgren was hardly finished; In June of 2007, before free agency, he swung a trade that brought both Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen to Philadelphia for the aforementioned 1st round pick - both signed long-term deals in Philly. Malingerer Joni Pitkanen, a D with loads of talent but not always the ability to use it, was shipped off with veteran re-re-re-tread Geoff Sanderson for Jason Smith and Joffrey Lupul. The piece de resistance was star centerman Daniel Briere's addition to the club in free agency. The team had added Coburn, Lupul, Briere, Smith, Biron, Hartnell, Timonen, Upshall, Parent, and all for a minimum of cost to the current roster (Zhitnik and Pitkanen). With the improvement of Carter and Richards almost inevitable, the Flyers made the Eastern Conference Finals - a rise that should have shocked no one.

Flyers Salaries

That Doesn't Look As Bad As I Thought: The Flyers don't actually have to make a trade this off-season. The Flyers are helped by the fact that they don't have any restricted free agents to deal with.

2010-11 Looks Unpleasant, Though: Well, certainly. $48 million dollars, no goalies, and still three short on the bench too, and the salary cap is likely to be between $50 and $53 million dollars. The Flyers will have to move one of Lupul, Briere, Gagne, or Hartnell - Briere would be the most likely to move, except that he has a no-movement clause.

2011-12 Is Unpleasant, Too: Jeff Carter and Claude Giroux are RFA that season - both will require large raises.

2009-10 Projected Lines

This indicates a player who is RFA in 2009
This indicates a player who is UFA in 2010
This indicates a player who is RFA in 2010

Gagne-Briere-Lupul
Carter-Richards-Hartnell
Carcillo-?-Giroux
Cote-Powe-Asham

Timonen-Coburn
Parent-Carle
Jones-?

Emery
?

Future Flyers: The Flyers have a stellar farm system. James Van Riemsdyk, 2nd overall pick in 2007, finally signed a contract with Philadelphia, and has to be considered to have a good shot to make the team. Luca Sbisa, the 18 year old wunderkind from Switzerland, played half the season with the Flyers on defense; his upside is not sky-high, but Philadelphia fans should expect him to be a defensive stalwart for the next decade. Claude Giroux may be a future star.

Trades

As mentioned above, one of the high-salaried Flyers is going to have to leave town eventually. The Flyers may get crazy - reports in the Philadelphia Inquirer suspect the Flyers will go after Jay Bouwmeester, but they don't have the money this year or next year. Paul Holmgren is not afraid to pull the trigger on a creative trade, so expect the unexpected from him. The Flyers have to realize with their cap situation that their best shot for a Stanley Cup is this season.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 6.2 million
Holes to Fill: 3

Center

If the Flyers go after a center, it will likely be of the Malhotra/Pahlsson/Peca/Madden/etc. ilk. They may go after a left wing instead.

Defense

Bouwmeester is a possibility, however remote. If the Flyers can find a new home for one of their top six forwards, they can bring in one of the Ohlund/Komisarek/Oduya/Spacek/Beauchemin group. If not, they will likely have to stick with the Andrew Alberts/Karlis Skrastins/Hal Gill group. Luca Sbisa could make the team, leaving more money available for other things.

Goalie

Ray Emery can't be thought of as the de facto starter in Philadelphia - the Flyers will likely have a 1A/1B situation set up. Ty Conklin, Scott Clemmensen, Craig Anderson, Antero Niitymaki, etc. etc. all have to be interesting players for the Flyers, and that player will likely get paid around what Emery got paid.

Conclusion

It's hard to talk about what the Flyers might do, because they very well could do anything. They have all kinds of assets to make a trade. They have two of the best young forwards in the league in Carter and Richards, and their top 6 forwards may be deeper than anyone else's in the NHL. The defense, however, is not great and slightly overpaid, so something may be done there. Even with the great young players the Flyers have, they still have a small window with which to be very serious contenders.

Outlook

Playoff team on a short list of Stanley Cup contenders next year, a playoff team with salary cap-induced holes in the near future.

The Ottawa Senators - Having The Rug Pulled Out From Under

2009-06-22T14:08:00.000-07:00

Senators Prolegomena - The Decline And Fall Of The Ottowan Empire

It should be regarded as no accident that the Ottawa Senators' logo depicts a Roman centurion - much like Rome in the 5th Century AD, the Senators were sacked by Visigoths, and what plunder they managed to hoard, they did so at quite a cost.

In 2005-06, the Senators were favorites for the Stanley Cup - their hopes derailed by an injury to star goaltender Dominik Hasek, who had a .925 save percentage in his time in Ottawa. His replacement, Ray Emery, posted only a .900 save percentage in the playoffs, dooming the tremendous offense. Regardless, the club looked like this:

Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson
Schaefer-Fisher-Havlat
Vermette-Smolinski-Eaves
Varada-Kelly-Neil

Redden-Chara
Volchenkhov-Phillips
Pothier-Meszaros

Hasek
Emery

Stellar club from top to bottom. To put this in perspective, the members of the 2005-06 Ottawa Senators defense are now making a combined 26.5 million dollars, an average above $4 million per player. The bad news is that 4 of them are now playing for other teams, and the replacements for Chara, Redden, Pothier, and Meszaros have been Jason Smith, Filip Kuba, Brendan Bell, and Brian Lee. The fate that befell Ottawa and Buffalo now awaits Boston - their best players will soon get overpaid or leave Boston to poison another team's salary cap.

Ottawa Salaries

Yes I Am Aware They Have 3 Goalies: The Ottawa Senators continued their mystifying tradition of buying damaged goods by picking up Pascal Leclaire in a deal with Columbus. Leclaire has had one impressive season but it is hard to imagine him outperforming a goalie who could've been available for half the cost. Either Auld will be traded or Elliott sent to the minors - it's ultimately irrelevant.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson
?-Fisher-Foligno
Ruutu-Kelly-Winchester
Schubert-Shannon-Donovan

Kuba-Phillips
Volchenkov-Campoli
Bell-Lee

Leclaire
Elliott

What Happened To Jason Smith? Smith was less than impressive in a Senators uniform - a relic of the pre-lockout clutch-and-grab days, Smith will likely be waived or bought out.

Trades

Dany Healtey has requested a trade. Heatley is 3rd in goals since the lockout and is a superlative scoring talent. He also seems to be a bit of a malcontent, having asked out of two cities now (although the first he can certainly be forgiven for). The Senators MUST get a top prospect/young player out of this trade - they have too many veteran players making too much money.

Free Agent Discussion

Money Available: 8.1 million
Holes To Fill: 1

Left Wing

Alex Tanguay (4/18) - Playmaking left wing could help with Senators' shooting woes.
Nikolai Antropov (4/15) - Versatile Russian can play either wing and center and seems to be continually improving.
Mike Comrie (4/10) - C/LW Comrie was re-acquired by the Sens in March in hopes that he would sign a new deal here. Given that the Islanders were the only team who wanted him when he left Ottawa, it seems rather likely that he re-ups with the Senators.
Ruslan Fedotenko (2/4) - Leaves room to upgrade the defense, if management wishes to.

Conclusion

Ottawa is paying for its years of almost-success by paying players like Chris Phillips and Mike Fisher a hefty sum to do less than they should. Its top line also makes almost $20 million dollars, which leaves only $36 million for the remaining 20 players. Ottawa should look into dealing Dany Heatley for an excellent prospect and 2nd line LW, then sign another LW; they may lose out on that deal overall, but they may leave themselves more balanced to make more trades down the road.

Outlook

Ottawa should contend for the playoffs this season - whether they make it depends on Leclaire's health and what happens with Heatley. Down the road, the Senators have a lot of guys signed for a lot of years and not much of a farm system; they are likely in that heap with the Rangers and Buffalo of Eastern Conference squads who are around 60% to make the playoffs in a given year.

The New Jersey Devils - Well, We Do Enter the Next Round-Robin... Or Not

2009-06-21T12:20:00.000-07:00

Devils' Prolegomena - The Usage Of Jay Pandolfo (The Bums Will Always Lose)

Jay Pandolfo must truly consider himself clutch. Coming up on unrestricted free agency, Pandolfo managed to have a stellar season - he scored 12 goals in 54 games, a career best rate, despite a severe leg injury that kept him out for much of the season. Having nabbed a Selke Trophy nomination the previous year (one which Alan Ryder of Hockey Analytics thinks he deserved), it was about time for Jay to get paid, and get paid he did. GM Lou Lamoriello gave his checking-line winger a 3 year, 7.5 million dollar deal, which Jay immediately began underperforming. Coach Brent Sutter let him kick around as part of a checking line, but when his play faltered, his ice time was limited, then snuffed out entirely. He was scratched for a stretch of 21 out of 30 games in 2009. However, with the Devils reeling from a six-game losing streak in late March, coach Brent Sutter reunited former checking line mates Pandolfo and John Madden in a loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on April 1. Veteran winger Brendan Shanahan was the third man on that line. The trio was soon used to match up against top lines, and used heavily in the playoffs. It is Devils' fans contention that the usage of Pandolfo was the major downfall of the team - or if not that, at least a symbol of an antediluvian mindset on the part of coach Sutter and evident puppet master Lamoriello. Pandolfo was likely a straggler of sorts - he was a -6 as a part of that checking line for the 12 games it was together. However, let us examine some numbers - going through each game of the season, putting the dividing line at 13 minutes and 30 seconds - (under 10 minutes might've been better) - how did the Devils fare when using Pandolfo a lot versus using him less or not at all?

Devils with Pando playing over 13:30: 24-17-6
Devils goals for: 3.02
Devils goals against: 2.55
Shots/game: 32.7
Shots Against/Game: 29.6

Devils with Pandolfo Playing Under 13:30: 21-18-2
Devils goals for: 2.59
Devils goals against: 2.5
Shots/game: 32.6
Shots Against/Game: 30.7

There's a lot more that would have to be done to really understand how Jay's usage affected New Jersey (he had the second worst Corsi number on the team) - but one thing is clear - there is little correlation between Pandolfo's usage and winning and losing. Brent Sutter should not be excoriated for his usage of a checking line in the playoffs - not after losing six straight games and watching his team's shots against/game continue to escalate. Perhaps as his team's shots against/game continued to increase in the playoffs, he should have examined the very strict line matching he was doing, but that's all in the past now; whether Sutter is prone to panicking is something the Calgary Flames might find out.

Devils' Salaries

Say What You Will About The Tenets of Lou-ism, At Least It's an Ethos: Lou Lamoriello played a little Back to the Future by acquiring former Devil Brian Rolston this off-season - Rolston, the most sought after free agent, summarily sprained his ankle and was ineffective for most of the season. His contract was an almost necessary gamble, but much like Michael Nylander's of Washington, it may be a difficult one from which to recover - due to the fact that Rolston was over 35 when his contract was signed, the Devils are on the hook for his cap hit even if he is not on the roster.

We Come Back and Cut Off Your Johnson: The Devils only have 16 returning players, but will pay out 44.6 million dollars in salary - the salary cap may indeed claim their Johnson. And stomp on it and squish it. 2009-10 is even worse - $40 million committed to 12 players means likely 10 million to the remaining 8, or some difficult cuts.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Parise-Zajac-Langenbrunner
Elias-Zubrus-Rolston
Pandolfo-?-Clarkson
Leblond-?-?

Martin-?
White-Mottau
Greene-Salvador

Brodeur
?

How The Whole Durned Human Comedy Keeps Perpetuating Itself: RW/LW Nicklas Bergfors has been germinating for four years in the minor leagues, and last season was by far his best. He will surely carve out a spot here for himself. Center Rod Pelley played 66 games for New Jersey in 2007-08 and may fill the fourth line vacancy left by Bobby Holik - that's a lot of bad penalties to take. RW Vladimir Zharkov was +23 for the Lowell Devils, so clearly he's no pushover. On defense, Matthew Corrente was New Jersey's 1st round pick in 2006 and had a successful pro debut. Do not rule out Lou Lamoriello signing someone out of Europe to possibly make the Devils - he did so with Johnny Oduya and less successfully with Anssi Salmela last season.

Trades

New Jersey has a lot of long-term deals and a lot of no-trade clauses. It is unlikely they get anything done.

Free Agents

Money To Spend: 12 million
Holes To Fill: 5

Center

Manny Malhotra (4/10) - Malhotra wins faceoffs, scores a few goals, he's the kind of player the Devils have traditionally loved.
Dominic Moore (4/9.5) - Another ex-Ranger castoff, Moore made himself into an assist man last season, posting 32 - his previous career-high was 12.
Sami Pahlsson (3/6.5) - Checking-line centerman has only scored more than 10 goals once in his career, but does the 'little things' right. Problem is, he does the big things wrong - a career -44 has to make teams wary.

4th Line Center

Blair Betts (3/3.5) - Sam Rosen wakes up with bile in his throat at the thought of Blair Betts leaving the Rangers - Betts is a valued, uh, item for the Rangers that really ties the team together. His work has also been commended as being strongly vaginal - he had only 8 minor penalties last season.
Todd Marchant (2/2) - A million f'ing clams for the speed demon who can still kill some penalties.
Scott Nichol (2/1.6) - Feisty centerman has struggled with injuries but is always willing to drop the gloves.

Defensemen

Mike Komisarek (5/25) - Komisarek has the things that general managers unfortunately love - enormous bodies and physical prowess. While these things are important, so is offensive ability, which Komisarek possess little.
Mattias Ohlund (3/13) - Ohlund may be headed elsewhere if the whole Team Sweden thing falls apart in Vancouver - his consistency is something no doubt prized by Lou Lamoriello, although given what happened with Rolston, he will likely get in a fight with the chief of police of Malibu and be sidelined for three months.
Jaroslav Spacek (3/11) - Spacek has 73 goals in 701 NHL games, and plenty of assists to boot. Newark will likely look like Hawaii to a man used to the Buffalo skyline. 3 years and 11 million dollars may be wishful thinking compared to what Roman Hamrlik is being paid, but the NHL is not always particularly good at valuing talent.
Johnny Oduya (4/14) - Oduya is a fabulous skater and has learned how to play in the defensive zone. Only power play prowess keeps him from getting a $5 million per contract - he is a +48 the past two seasons.
Francois Beauchemin (3/10) - Beauchemin only recorded 1 assist in the 33 games he played this past season, but he's got a Stanley Cup ring and plays a ton of minutes. While almost certainly not a superstar, he is less likely to implode than players like Spacek and Ohlund.

Goalie

The Devils need a backup goalie, although that position could've probably been filled by anyone breathing over the last few seasons. Martin Brodeur should play a maximum of 70 games - if he stays healthy, this likely will not happen.

Conclusion

The Devils were a minute or so away from facing Washington in the second round - their season should not be regarded as an utter failure. They don't really have room to add very much in the off-season, but they've still got one of the best goalies in the game and a young superstar in Zach Parise. That alone should keep them in the playoffs next season, regardless of who coaches the team.

Outlook

Between the years of 1995 and 2004, there were 5 Stanley Cup Champions - New Jersey, Colorado, Detroit, Dallas, and Tampa Bay. Colorado and Tampa Bay are terrible and Dallas missed the playoffs this past season. New Jersey has had better luck with prospects than Colorado, Tampa, or Dallas, but they are certainly no Detroit; the Devils are a playoff team for now, with the chance to go far. However, with loads of veteran contracts on the books and not much in the system at present, it will likely be a struggle to make the playoffs in a few seasons, and their decline may look like that of Colorado and Dallas.

The New York Rangers - Not The Only Large, Unwieldy New York Based Organization To Completely Underestimate The Possibility of Failure

2009-06-21T08:47:00.001-07:00

Rangers Prolegomena - A Tiny Essay On Shooting Percentage

The Rangers were last in the NHL in shooting percentage, and it was not even close - they registered a pathetic 7.5%, whereas the next closest team scored an 8.1%. An increase of .6% would've yielded 16 more goals over the 82 game schedule. The Rangers offset this (somewhat) by taking a ton of shots - they were 7th in the league in shots on goal. In the middle of this is Scott Gomez, possibly one of the worst shooters in the league - his shooting % of 7.7 is near the bottom of the league for forwards who play an offensive role. Gomez often tries incredibly low-percentage shots in order to create rebounds - some of those bad 'shots' no doubt result in assists for him and goals for his team.

Normally one would think this is just a fluke and that the Rangers could score 30 or 40 more goals next season, but their top three centers are not tremendous shooters by any stretch - We've already covered Gomez, but Brandon Dubinsky also has a 7.6% career percentage and his hands are one of the few things keeping him from being a bona fide star in the future. Chris Drury may have a 12% career shooting percentage, but that was buoyed by playing in Buffalo; remove those and he's at 10.7%, which is exactly what the Rangers have gotten from him these past two seasons. Recall that shooting percentage is, in itself, not a skill - Chris Drury is still a strong player and worth having on one's team. However, none of the current Rangers are particularly adept at filling the net regularly, and it shows on the team's shooting percentages, both career and otherwise. Glen Sather's master plan seems to have been that Scott Gomez could waken the sleeping sticks on his team, but that plan has certainly not come to pass.

Rangers' Salary

Whither Nikolai Zherdev? Zherdev and John Tortorella did not see eye to eye, and his minutes were reduced down the stretch. It is certainly possible that the Rangers may non-tender their second leading scorer in hopes to acquire something better. Zherdev is a tremendous talent but he appears to lack the finish to justify his lengthy swoons in effort.

Whither Wade Redden? It is a very remote possibility that Wade Redden could be waived. Redden's play was horrid under former coach Tom Renney, but seemed to improve under the new coach, enough that Glen Sather will likely hold off on something so drastic. Were he waived, he almost certainly could not be called back up during the season - the Rangers would have to replace his minutes.

Wow, The Rangers Are In A Bad Spot: The Rangers clearly went with an aggressive free-agent strategy in hopes that the salary cap would continue rising. With a constantly rising salary cap, it would have been possible to salvage bad contracts (e.g. Avery) from teams that needed them gone, plus they could have been one of the few teams to spend up to the salary cap each year. In an increasing salary cap world, bad contracts ostensibly get better because they take up less of a % of a team's salary cap. Now that the salary cap will come down, the Rangers are stuck with four albatrosses - Drury, Gomez, Roszival, and Redden are nowhere near elite at their position, but they are all being paid close to elite money. The Rangers are thus a thoroughly average team.

2009-10 Projected Lines

?-Gomez-Zherdev
Avery-Drury-Callahan
Sjostrom-Dubinsky-?
Voros-Korpikoski-?

Staal-Girardi
Redden-Roszival
?-?

Lundqvist
Valiquette

Future Watch: Artem Anisimov scored 37 goals as a 20 year old in the AHL - it is hard to believe he won't be in a Rangers uniform next season. Defenseman Bob Sanguinetti showed offensive prowess in his first pro season, and right behind him is Michael Del Zotto who scored a point a game in the OHL. The Rangers' future took a serious hit with the unfortunate death of Alexei Cherepanov.

Trades

The Rangers have a lot of bad, unmovable contracts. If they get creative like Anaheim, maybe they package some prospects and bad contracts for good ones, but they don't have very much cap space at the moment. Larry Brooks suggested today that the Rangers might acquire Dany Healtey, but this appears to be an opium-induced dream.

Free Agent Discussion

Money to Spend: 8.4 million
Holes To Fill: 5

Even if the Rangers put Anisimov and Sanguinetti on the roster, their contracts add an extra 1.65 million to the Rangers' bottom line, and means they have 6.8 million to spend on the remaining 3 players. This leaves little money for an elite-level signing, and it's difficult to see how the Rangers can jigger their roster to allow for one. Even taking Zherdev off the roster, they still have to fill the hole he leaves with something comparable in price (e.g. Brian Gionta).

Left Wing

Two cheap options:

Taylor Pyatt (3/5.5) - Pyatt has always had the 'look' of a power forward without the finish. While there's more than enough NHL history to suggest that Taylor Pyatt will never be better than a 3rd line LW, there's also the one season where he scored 23 goals - doing that as a 6'4" 230 pound player will have NHL GMs pounding down your doors 10 years later.
Janne Pesonen (2/2.3) - Pesonen led the Finnish League in goals and points in 2008, but in his debut stateside he could not crack the Pittsburgh Penguins roster. He did manage over a point a game for their AHL affiliate, and may be the kind of Jan Hlavac-style place holder who scores 15 goals and 25 assists.

More expensive:

Nikolai Antropov (4/15) - Antropov did everything that he was expected to as a Ranger. He's got scoring touch around the net, and while he's the sort of player that always leaves fans expecting more, it's not unreasonable that he could fill this hole.

Right Wing

Joel Ward (3/6) - Sather already acquired Aaron Ward and Jason Ward as GM of the Rangers - why not Joel?

Chris Neil (2/3.6) - The Rangers need someone to fight Avery's battles - Neil can also play a bit as well.

Mark Recchi (1/1.8) - Veteran presence may help power play.
Brendan Shanahan (1/1.5) - Ditto.

Defensemen

Paul Mara (2/4) - Paul Mara was re-signed last off-season for one year by Sather; it's hard to tell if it's Mara on double-secret probation from the GM, or if Mara is trying to regain the touch that had him score 42 and 47 points in consecutive seasons; regardless, few players Mara's age sign one-year deals. Mara is prone to terrible penalties but there's nothing he does particularly poorly besides that.
Martin Skoula (2/3) - Skoula is the kind of defenseman the Rangers love - he's got supposedly good puck moving ability, even though this has never really manifested itself.
Mathieu Dandenault (1/1) - Dandenault would make a valuable place-holder for a deadline acquisition. The Rangers suffered almost no injuries last season and got away with playing rookies when the need arose; they will need more depth this season. While Dandenault may not be the guy, they certainly need a player who can play 30 or 40 games without being a disaster.

Conclusion

The Rangers really missed the boat not signing Marian Hossa this past off-season. Instead they came back with Wade Redden, which is a lot like getting an endless supply of Chunkys and Mary Janes on Halloween. They're bland and no one will trade with you. The Rangers do have some impressive looking prospects which should keep their team fresh, but they failed to replace Jaromir Jagr's production this past season and it's hard to see them doing so again this season. With the salary cap set to decrease, they will have an even more difficult time acquiring an elite-level player besides Henrik Lundqvist.

Outlook

An impressive young defensive corps will keep the Rangers' mediocre offense hovering between making and missing the playoffs for the next few seasons.

New York Islanders - Party On, Garth!

2009-06-17T13:50:00.000-07:00

(Editor's Note: I know the New Jersey Devils come next alphabetically but I wish to do an in-depth study for them that requires a lot of research - expect it early next week.)

A Yawn That Swallows The Whole World: The famed French poet Baudelaire said that was the definition of 'ennui'. It's also a good summation of how NHL fans feel about the New York Islanders, who are bad now, will likely remain bad in the future, who play in the NHL equivalent of a housing project, and have a former goalie turned GM still piloting the team.

Mark Streit Might Have The Best Contract In the NHL: Mark Streit flourished on Long Island, ending up as a plus player on a rotten team, while playing an absolute ton. He should score less goals next season, but that shouldn't take away from his ability - he is a top defender in the NHL.

2009-10 Projected Lines

?-Weight-Hunter
Bergenheim-Bailey-Okposo
Park-Nielsen-Comeau
Tambellini-Thompson-Jackman

Streit-Witt
Martinek-Sutton
Meyer-Gervais

DiPietro
?

Boy, There's An Opening On The Top Line: If John Tavares wishes to come to Long Island, he just may fill that spot.

Free Agent Discussion

Money Available: 13 million
Holes To Fill: 2

Thoughts: The Islanders have lots of money to spend, and they have to hit the NHL's salary floor, which is right now at 40.7 million. Although this blog has not been counting bonus money, bonus money does count towards the salary floor; the Islanders will likely be paying out as much as 4 million in bonuses, so they only have to spend around 5 million to hit the floor. They may be a dumpster for bad contracts, picking up valuable assets along the way. Another addition like Streit is in order as well - Alex Tanguay is a possibility, Nikolai Antropov another; both players have had up-and-down careers and may only find the kind of money they are seeking from second-division clubs.

Conclusion: The Islanders' third-highest paid player is Alexei Yashin, which sums up the team quite nicely. GM Garth Snow has actually done a not-terrible job in putting together the Islanders, and while they are almost certainly a last place team, there's room to grow. As long as the Islanders do not botch this rebuilding attempt, they should be a playoff team in 3 or 4 years. However, the Islanders have traditionally been outstanding at bungling rebuilding attempts, and the payoff might not come until the Islanders are uprooted to Kansas City.

The Detroit Red Wings - A Day Late And Now A Dollar Short

2009-06-17T07:19:00.000-07:00

Detroit Prolegomena - Taking A Cue From the Islanders

One would think that the most successful franchise of the last 15 years would not emulate the least successful franchise over that span, but the salary cap is, as Chris Farley put it in Dirty Work, an odd duck. The facts, however, are plain: The Detroit Red Wings, as well as other clubs, have decided that extremely long-term contracts are beneficial both for players and teams. The Islanders were the first to hit upon this idea, signing promising young goalie Rick DiPietro to a 15 year deal, a deal that prompted howls of laughter from journalists around the hockey world. Rick's injury trouble and poor play have kept the laughter unbroken, but the idea has legs; since then, four players have signed incredibly long-term deals, two of them Red Wings. GM Ken Holland signed Henrik Zetterberg to a 12 year/72 million dollar pact and Johan Franzen to an 11 year/44 million dollar deal. Both happened during the season, which suggests that this stellar negotiator was responsible.

Buoying these deals are two one-million dollar seasons for Franzen and Zetterberg at the very ends of the contract - Franzen will be 38, Zetterberg 39 when these million dollar seasons kick in. Each will of course still have their full cap hit for these seasons. It is difficult to imagine either of these players actually playing these seasons - but the deals are truly brilliant in two senses. First, Zetterberg and Franzen receive almost all of their money in the first seasons of the deal, but thanks to these two seasons at the end of each, their cap hit is reduced throughout the contract. Furthermore, when their cap hit begins to exceed their salary by a great deal (and likely their performance too), they will only be making $1 million per season, and will probably retire instead of playing for that sum. If they do want to play out their entire contract, odds are that Ken Holland will be forced to demote them to the minor leagues - in 2019/20, Franzen and Zetterberg will be making 2 million dollars, but taking up 10 million dollars of the Wings' cap. Now here's where the magic comes in: someone will almost certainly acquire them if they get waived! The league will always have a few sickly franchises that would prefer to have a large cap hit for a small amount of performance, if that cap hit happens to involve a low salary being paid out. Even if not: Detroit's economy is unstable, and if the city never recovers, it's possible that the Red Wings would no longer be a top spending NHL squad. As a result, Zetterberg and Franzen's contracts might stay on the books, providing a money-saving solution for a frugal team. Any way you slice these contracts, Ken Holland came out way ahead; even if both Zetterberg and Franzen develop injury problems later in their careers, he's managed to keep together as much of an NHL dynasty as possible in this salary cap era, and has ensured that the Red Wings will remain near the head of the pack in the NHL for the near-future.

Detroit Salaries

Do People Really Think Hossa Can Come Back? Michael Farber of SI reported that Hossa had signed a long-term deal that would not be reported until the end of the season. However, the team already has 57 million in salary committed for next season, and they lack a backup goalie. It would be a major stretch to think that the Wings could afford Hossa - Hossa is likely gone to the highest bidder.

Are All The Red Wing Players Idiots? The Red Wings seem to underpay all of their players, and beyond that, they get them to agree to money up front deals, e.g. Kris Draper. Draper has a cap hit of 1.583 million but in 2010/11 his actual salary will only be 1.2 million. It's likely that he's no longer a Red Wing in 2010/11, either playing for some minor league team or a team not particularly interested in winning.

Will Lidstrom Retire In A Year? Only Nicklas Lidstrom knows that - but playing the playoffs with a ruptured testicle might influence his decision. Lidstrom has been rumored to return to Sweden since he stepped into the league almost 20 years ago. If he retires, regardless of what the Wings fill that hole with, it will not be as good as Nicklas Lidstrom, who certainly has a case for being the NHL's greatest defenseman of all time behind Bobby Orr.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Leino
Zetterberg-Hudler-Cleary
Franzen-Filppula-Helm
Maltby-Draper-Abdelkader

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Stuart-Kronwall
Ericsson-Lebda

Osgood
?

None Of Those Players Are Right Wings: No, they aren't. The Wings are almost certain to lose Mikael Samuelsson and the aforementioned Hossa. The Wings always have an answer to everything so they will no doubt be able to train Darren Helm to shoot right-handed and it will be an improvement.

Okay, But Seriously: It's unclear how the Wings solve this problem. They can certainly move players to the off-wing, but which ones?

Trades

The Wings likely have to make a cost-cutting move somewhere. The most obvious would be Brad Stuart, a player that has been overrated since his selection as the 3rd overall pick in 1998. Stuart was compared to Scott Stevens, but this year he played more like Kevin Stevens after being caught with a prostitute. He clearly has skills but isn't worth the $3.75 million/season the Wings are paying him. Jiri Hudler could also be shipped out, as he is due for a large raise and is arbitration-eligible - with centers in high demand throughout the NHL, Hudler could net a team's best or second-best prospect in return.

Free Agent Discussion

With the Wings lacking money, they really can't afford to sign anyone. Tomas Kopecky could be brought back, but that is about all, barring some massive unforseen trade. The Wings require a backup goalie - they may promote prospect Jimmy Howard, or find someone who can capably play goal for around a million dollars a year.

Conclusion: The Red Wings are the league's best drafters, and as a result they usually have the best team. Even with their brutal Stanley Cup Finals loss, they will still be the favorites to win it all next year. The young players they have now don't look to have the upside of a Datsyuk or Zetterberg, but they will be solid 2nd and 3rd line contributors in a few years time. The only thing that could slow down the Wings' reign of terror is if Lidstrom retires - his retirement will expose Brian Rafalski and severely weaken what has traditionally been the best defensive corps in hockey. Regardless, the Wings will almost certainly be one of the NHL's best teams for the next five years at the very least - it's hard to imagine them not winning another Stanley Cup in that time.

The Nashville Predators - Playoffs, No Way

2009-06-17T06:29:00.000-07:00

(Editor's Note: I will be giving the Predators, Islanders, Coyotes, and possibly the Lightning a very brief treatment. I am lagging behind.)

Predators Cap Situation

2009-10 Projected Lines

Erat-Arnott-Dumont
?-Legwand-?

Jones-?-Tootoo
Pihlstrom-Smithson-Belak

Weber-Suter
Hamhuis-?
?-Klein

Rinne
Ellis

Future Watch: Patric Hornqvist should almost certainly win the 2nd line RW job. Colin Wilson had a stellar sophomore season at BU, leading the team in points. Cal O'Reilly has been a terrific assist man for Milwaukee and might finally crack the roster next season.

Free Agent Discussion

Money Available: 10.5 million
Holes to fill: 5

Who Nashville will look at: Nothing fancy, of course. They might get a Jordan Leopold sort of player for defense, along with a 'minutes-eater' type. Up front, re-signing Steve Sullivan is certainly a possibility. Nashville will not break the bank and is unlikely to acquire anything exciting.

Outlook: Nashville barely missed the playoffs but had a negative goal differential. They are a stellar drafting team but due to budget issues they gambled on Peter Forsberg and lost and are still paying the price for losing that deal. As long as Nashville continues to draft and find talent the way they have these last few seasons, they will be a team that is on the cusp of making the playoffs. Without more money put in the team, however, they are unlikely to do any damage once they get there.

The Montreal Canadiens - The World And Everything In It

2009-06-13T10:34:00.000-07:00

Montreal Prolegomena - Hueting For Price?

In February of 2008, GM Bob Gainey made a trade that shocked the NHL - he sent veteran goaltender Cristobal Huet to the Washington Capitals for a 2nd round pick in 2009. Price followed up that trade by posting a .934 save percentage down the stretch for the Habs. He then proceeded to post a .901 save percentage in the playoffs which led to much criticism of Gainey - how could he pull out the rug from under his young goaltender? And how did he not even manage to get anything of use in return for the player who led the league in save percentage in 2005-06?

First of all, the above assumes an optimal use of goaltenders. That is, that the coach will automatically realize when his young goaltender is struggling. This may not be the case. Second, 'pulling the rug out' from under Price can be read another way - that Bob Gainey is making it emphatically clear that Carey Price is the goaltender of the Canadiens for the present and the future. Keeping Huet around as a safety blanket is an intriguing proposition, but could ultimately stunt Price - once the veteran is no longer around, will he feel comfortable? It may be best to yank that comfort out; Price now MUST play well, and he must succeed.

Gainey may have been guilty of looking to the past - Patrick Roy and Ken Dryden won Stanley Cups as rookies, why not Carey Price? However, he turned the pick he received for Huet into an asset for this year's team by dealing it for Mathieu Schneider. When your team makes the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, adding a guy who had 17 points in 23 games could not have hurt.

Montreal Cap Situation

Former Habs: Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Alex Tanguay, and Mike Komisarek are four of the biggest names headed for unrestricted free agency. Given Kovalev's issues with Montreal, he is likely gone, although one never knows. Saku Koivu has been less-than-impressive - his injuries are perhaps catching up with him. Tanguay is the sort of player who signs for someone who absolutely doesn't need him and isn't any better with him. Komisarek is sure to be vastly overpaid by someone who sees a 6'6" defender who plays physical - the Habs will likely let him go.

Projected Lines 2009-10

?-?-A. Kostitsyn

Plekanec-Higgins-D'Agostini
S. Kostitsyn-Lapierre-Latendresse
?-Metropolit-Laraque

Hamrlik-Markov
?-?
Gorges-O'Byrne

Price
Halak

Trades

The Montreal Canadiens should certainly explore trades this off-season, and it will be shocking if they don't complete any. Having been often rejected as a free agent destination - both Patrik Elias and Daniel Briere turned down more money from Montreal to sign where they did - the Canadiens have an excess of young talent and a ton of room under the salary cap. They can easily be a recepticle for overpriced contracts. Daniel Briere and Vincent Lecavalier are sure to be the two biggest names thought to be heading for Le Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge - those names are somewhat unlikely, but someone like Simon Gagne is certainly a possibility. However, with a dearth of centers available in free agency, the Habs may be poised to add one via trade this off-season.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 27.6 million
Spots to Fill: 5

The free agent discussion on Montreal can be so extensive that it's not going to be extensive at all. Montreal can sign anyone. They should get one of Havlat, Gaborik, or Hossa. They should nab one of Beauchemin, Spacek, Ohlund, Komisarek, or Oduya. They may have trouble filling the center spot - that's where the trade comes in. Mats Sundin is at least a remote possibility for Montreal if he plays in the NHL again.

Conclusion: Montreal is incredibly well set up to at least be a force in the playoffs next season. While the team broke down to end the season, it is a very young team, and a bounceback should be anticipated. The Habs should be able to replace what they are losing in free agents with fresh blood, and while it might take time to congeal, they've got what it takes to be a perennial playoff team for years to come.

The Minnesota Wild - It's Easy To Forget About Them All Tucked Away Down There

2009-06-11T06:27:00.001-07:00

(Editor's Note: No introduction on this one. I am going to try to cut down on the introductions, otherwise I will likely not be able to finish all 30 teams.)

Minnesota Cap Situation

Cap Health: The Wild have an excellent salary cap situation, with over 10 million dollars of room this year, and almost 20 million next year.

How'd Minnesota Do Last Year, I Wasn't Paying Attention: Minnesota finished in 9th place in the Conference. They were a below-average offense but well-above-average defense. Their best forward sat out most of the year. They actually had an above-average power play too - their 5 on 5 play was what kept them out of the playoffs.

But Then They Fired Everyone: Minnesota hired assistant Pittsburgh GM Chuck Fletcher to be their general manager, after dispatching the only GM in their history, Doug Risebrough. Fletcher is well known, for, uh, helping to pick Sidney Crosby 1st overall. Or maybe it was picking Evgeni Malkin 2nd overall. Well, he's probably a great guy, and regardless he has to be better than Risebrough, who violated the 'Take Only Pictures and Leave Only Footprints' commandment by leaving Fletcher a ludicrously overpaid goalie.

What Was Risebrough's Strategy, Anyway? It's hard to tell - the man clearly deserved his firing. It seemed to be piling up overpriced free agents without many special skills. Signing Nick Schultz to a deal comparable with Willie Mitchell, Jay McKee, and all the other overpriced D-only players around the league also seems foolish. Mark Parrish was a particularly stinky signing who will affect the Wild's cap until 2013-14.

Where's Dan Fritsche, He's An RFA? Dan Fritsche clearly has skills, but he's not worth an $850,000 qualifying offer. Odds are that he will be non-tendered.

2009-10 Projected Lines

This indicates a player RFA in 2008-09
This indicates a player UFA in 2009-10
This indicates a player RFA in 2009-10

?-Koivu-Nolan
Brunette-Bouchard-Miettinen
Pouliot-Belanger-Clutterbuck
Boogaard-Sheppard-Gillies

Johnsson-Burns
Zidlicky-Schultz
?-?

Backstrom
Harding

The Future? Nothing on the horizon. The young players for Minnesota are already in their lineup.

Trades

Dan Fritsche: Non-tendering him might be a little harsh for a 24 year old, but the Wild have too many young forwards like him, and he did not impress in his brief time in Minnesota. Someone else may want to take a shot at this depth forward. The Wild may look to trade some of their younger, inexpensive players for contracts that more wealthy teams need taken off their hands - Simon Gagne could be a Wild player next season, for instance.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 12.7 million
Money Likely To Be Spent: 10 million
Holes To Fill: 3

Left Wing

Marian Gaborik (7/45) - They got rid of the coach whom he supposedly didn't like - is that enough to keep Gaborik in Minnesota? There's not many other places for him, except for one which players tend not to go to. Gaborik is a legitimate finisher, something the Wild desperately need, he is a 50 goal man when healthy.
Martin Havlat (6/36) - Havlat fulfills the Wild's a great deal less than Gaborik - Havlat has 169 goals in 470 career games, which works out to 29 per 82 games. He's not a pure finisher like Gaborik. He can play left wing and has top-line skills, something which the Wild decidedly lack.
Mike Knuble (2/6.2) - Knuble would fulfill the same role as Andrew Brunette, but it's not like redundancy has stopped the Wild in the past. Has 10+ PPG goals per season since the lockout.

Defense

Jordan Leopold (4/11.5) - Leopold is from Minnesota, he went to the University of Minnesota, and there's a need for a long-term puck-moving type guy.
Nick Boynton (3/7.5) - Boynton is a physical defender with some offensive skill - it's possible that someone remarkably overvalues him and pays him $3M+, but if not, there will remain a lot of interested parties.
Martin Skoula (2/4) - Skoula is one of those guys who doesn't really excel at anything but isn't terrible at anything either.
Marc-Andre Bergeron (2/3) - A liability at even strength, but who cares? That slapshot is awesome. Actually managed a +5 this year too.
Cory Murphy (2/2.75) - Murphy has power play skills but who knows how much else he has to offer?

Conclusion: Minnesota has a decent skeleton in place but if Gaborik departs and no one fills his place they lack top-end talent. The Backstrom contract is an unfortunate setback, but also the kind of thing that happens when a team has lots of money to spend. The Wild can put together a competitive team if they make the right moves in free agency, but right now they are in that middle of the pack in the Western Conference - there's Detroit, Chicago, and San Jose at the top, and then between Team 4 and Team 13 there's not a large difference right now. Ownership in Minnesota has never gotten that one star player besides Gaborik, but perhaps with Lemaire out of the way, they start to open the checkbook a bit. Signing Gaborik would be a step in the right direction for a franchise that besides one unlikely playoff run in 2003 has very little to show for its time in the NHL.

The Los Angeles Kings - A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats (But It Takes A Long Time)

2009-06-10T06:42:00.000-07:00

Kings Prolegomena - A Taylor-Made Problem

Playoffs-or-else mandates are fine for coaches. That is, telling a coach that if he doesn't make the playoffs in a certain year he will be fired. He probably knows that anyway, and while it might have him riding a goalie or star player a little harder than he might normally, it's not going to change anything long-term. Playoffs-or-else mandates for general managers, on the other hand, can be disastrous and set franchises back years for the sake of one man's job. It is an inherently foolhardy strategy.

Let's not mince words: Dave Taylor got extraordinarily unlucky as GM of the Kings. He nabbed Adam Deadmarsh and Jason Allison as 2/3rds of a top line, and both players ended up suffering career-ending injuries. The Kings could have been a real force in the West early in the decade - certainly not a Cup winner, but one of those Carolina-type teams that goes on a deep run and gets the fans excited. In 2006, one year after the lockout, it appears he was given a playoffs-or-else mandate. He made a deal at the deadline: He traded Denis Grebeshkhov and Jeff Tambellini to Long Island for UFA to be Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel who had a year left on his deal. Now, Tambellini has really come to nothing - he's a peripheral NHL player. Grebeshkhov himself walked away from the Islanders to sign in Russia, and was later traded for Marc Andre Bergeron, but has now turned into a solid defender. The Kings really didn't get hurt by this deal, even though Parrish and Sopel are mediocre players. It's probably a good thing that Parrish walked away - he was since bought out by the Wild last off-season and it will be surprising if he has an NHL job. The problem is the thinking behind the deal - Grebeshkhov and Tambellini were recent Kings 1st round picks, and both were tossed away for two marginal talents.

Taylor had a young team returning to Los Angeles, but it was also surrounded it with veterans who may be on their last legs - Craig Conroy, Jeremy Roenick, and Luc Robitaille all suited up for the 2005-06 Kings. What emerged was a flaming wreck despite the good mix of vets and youth; Taylor forgot to acquire a goalie, and the goalies' cumulative .894 save percentage sunk the season, and he was fired. He's not the only GM to engage in this behavior in recent times.

The Atlanta Thrashers used this scorched earth policy as well - on the cusp of making the 2007 playoffs, they dealt young defender Braydon Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik, a trade that while not among the worst of all time is certainly among the worst of the last ten years. This flagrant disregard for the future was compounded by trading a 1st round pick for Keith Tkachuk, who left at the end of the year. Their 2nd round pick was traded for Vitali Vishnevski, a player whom they likely could've gotten for much cheaper had they waited. In the 2007 draft, Atlanta didn't pick until pick number 64, and for all their deadline wheeling and dealing they didn't even win a playoff game that year. Yet somehow, Don Waddell still has a job.

If you're a team president or team owner reading this, don't tell your general manager he has to make the playoffs or he will be fired. Don't even give him this sense. This will only hurt your franchise - you might make a little more money that season, if he does wrangle up enough veteran players to shove your team through, but ultimately your franchise will be much worse off. Dispatch him the old-fashioned way - make him believe his job is safe, then fire him on his birthday.

Los Angeles Cap Situation

Finally, A Team Smart About Goaltending: Ersberg and Quick had a combined .909 save percentage, which while not great, the Kings were still below league average in goals allowed. Only spending a combined 1.2 million dollars on goalies frees up plenty of money to do other things, money which the Kings didn't spend last season, but which they certainly can in the future.

Like What Other Things? It remains to be seen if the Kings will spend anything this off-season. They already have a full compliment of players signed, whether they want to demote some players who spent a year on the big club, or...

... Trade? Dany Heatley has requested a trade out of Ottawa, and Los Angeles seems to be most likely destination. With Jack Johnson not developing as planned, there are certainly a number of things that can be worked out. Heatley would make this club a playoff contender, but he may not be the best long-term option.

Dustin Brown is So Awesome: Dustin Brown drew 63 penalties last season - 20 more than the next-best penalty drawer (Evgeni Malkin). This is utterly incredible - 63 penalties drawn, at .2 goals per penalty, works out to be 12.5 goals for the Los Angeles Kings. Brown is the best player in the NHL that people don't know about - if the Kings get good, he's going to be a large part of why.

2009-10 Projected Lines

This is a player who is RFA in 2008-09
This is a player who is UFA in 2009-10
This is a player who is RFA in 2009-10

Frolov-Kopitar-Brown
?-Stoll-Williams
Purcell-Handzus-Simmonds
Ivanans-Richardson-Zeiler

Doughty-Quincey
Johnson-Greene
O'Donnell-Preissing

Quick
Ersberg

Players On The Horizon: Center Trevor Lewis scored 53 points in Manchester, he may be groomed to replace Handzus. Defenseman Vyacheslav Voinov came to the AHL as an 18 year old and put up solid-looking numbers for a player of that age - he is probably two or three years away, but there is definitely potential there. Thomas Hickey and Colton Teubert are two other d-prospects with excellent pedigree who should be threatening the LA roster in a year or two's time. Jonathan Bernier is a highly-regarded goaltending prospect.

Trades

Michal Handzus: The Kings seem to have excess depth - Center Oscar Moller played reasonably well in his first season, and Trevor Lewis is going to get his chance at the big squad. If the Kings do take on any big contracts in trade, this albatross is likely to go the other way. Handzus was 4th on the team in scoring, but he is big, slow, and injury-prone, three things that don't play well in the new NHL. Why the Kings signed him to a 16 million dollar/4 year deal coming off ACL surgery is a mystery.

Jack Johnson: Promising young defenseman has fallen behind Doughty on the depth chart, his NHL numbers to date are 120 games, 22 points, -42. He will likely be a solid player, but can Los Angeles keep waiting for him to break out with so many other defensive prospects in the pipeline? If they do, a solid trade chit might be reduced to nothing.

Teddy Purcell: Someone might take a flyer on this guy, who has put up ridiculous numbers in college and the AHL level.

Brian Boyle: He may be waiver fodder, but he could fetch a very small piece back. He cannot seem to get his game going at the NHL level.

Free Agent Discussion

Left Wing

Alex Tanguay (4/19) - Tanguay has a Stanley Cup ring and 98 games of playoff experience. He brings 20 goals and 40 assists at least - when he stays healthy, that is.
Mike Knuble (2/6.2) - Veteran LW/RW has scored at least 20 goals every year since 2003.

The market is thin on left wings - the Kings may simply choose to move Handzus to left wing, and to sign a third-line center or promote Trevor Lewis.

Conclusion: The Kings are a team that's saving money - whether they'll spend it is anyone's guess. They have a tremendous outlook for the future, especially if their bad contracts can go away and they can sign good contracts as they start to get better. This is likely not the year for the Kings to make the playoffs, but 2010-11 should provide opportunities to acquire players for cheap - it's time for GM Dean Lombardi to start taking advantage of teams that need to sell. This club looks like it's going to contend for a Stanley Cup in 3 or 4 years time - Kings fans have suffered through six seasons without the playoffs, and there's still some suffering ahead. Regardless, if Kings management can make the right maneuvers, there might be a Stanley Cup parade in downtown Los Angeles in the next decade.

The Florida Panthers - Rat Salad

2009-06-09T07:51:00.000-07:00

Florida Panthers Prolegomena - Bouwing Out

The Florida Panthers decided not to deal star defenseman Jay Bouwmeester at the trade deadline this season - Bouwmeester had been the object of speculation since he signed his one-year deal in the summer. The Panthers then proceeded to fall out of the playoff race, finishing tied in points for 8th but losing on a tiebreaker to the Montreal Canadiens. Had they made it, it would have been their first playoff berth since 2000, and a step in the right direction for a franchise that has been floundering since Scott Mellanby left. It is expected that Bouwmeester will leave Florida this summer.

We can analyze their decision to not deal Bouwmeester by way of an equation. This equation will not be solved here, it is far too complicated with too many variables to solve, but the equation itself should illuminate the way front offices should (but too often do not) think. Jay Bouwmeester is a tremendous talent. At the time the deal was thought to be made, the Panthers were in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, 3 points ahead of Buffalo and Carolina. So, what would we need to figure out whether we should keep Jay Bouwmeester? First, let's take Bouwmeester's remaining salary over the season. That's 18/82 * 4.875, or 1.07 million. Let's now assume that either the Panthers receive a series of prospects who would not play on their NHL team this season, or players with around similar salary to Bouwmeester (e.g. the Flyers had no cap room and would have had to clear space for Bouwmeester). For now, we are going to focus on the prospects - the other trades would add more complications.

The Bouwmeester Equation

Initial Equation: We figure out the probability that the Panthers will make the playoffs with Jay Bouwmeester on the roster. We figure out the potential playoff profits with Jay Bouwmeester on the roster - how many home games the Florida Panthers can expect to have with him on the roster. We figure this out by way of probabilities, e.g. if the Panthers make the playoffs 75% of the time, 50% of the time they have 2 home games, 25% they have 3, 10% they have 5, 8% they have 6, 5% they have 9, etc. From this equation we derive the amount of profit the Florida Panthers can expect to have in this playoff year. We can look at it like this:

(Probability of Making the Playoffs With Bouwmeester * Playoff Profit) minus Bouwmeester's remaining salary.

Now we have to look at the team if it traded Bouwmeester, like so (Probability of Making The Playoffs Without Bouwmeester) * Playoff Profit Adjusted For No Bouwmeester), and compare the two numbers. If the latter is greater than the former, the Panthers should likely deal Bouwmeester.

However, the Panthers aren't trading him for nothing - they are trading him for assets who can supposedly help them in the future. We therefore have to add a future component to the equation. The revised equation looks like this:

((Probablity of making playoffs with Bouwmeester * Playoff Profit) Minus Bouwmeester's Remaining Salary)) >=< (Probablity of Making Playoffs without Bouwmeester * Adjusted Playoff Profit) + Y(Increased Chance Of Playoff Berth Next Season(Potential Playoff Profit) + Z(Increased Chance Of Playoff Berth in 2011(Potential Playoff Profit) + and so on, with the numbers diminishing or becoming irrelevant.

Y and Z are coefficients; they are some number less than 1 to represent the time value of money - the Panthers would obviously value making the playoffs this season over making the playoffs next season, all things being equal.

Solving this equation is impossible without much more research and what result we would get is just an educated guess. Regardless, this method, or at least this line of thinking, is incredibly important in a salary-capped league - the Panthers cannot just approach the question instinctually. Ultimately, they thought their chances this season were too great to possibly spoil them - the Panthers needed some playoff games to jumpstart their dwindling fanbase. They likely made the right decision not dealing Bouwmeester, but got unlucky that they could not close the deal and squeak into the post-season.

Florida Cap Situation

How Do Things Look? Michael Frolik had an impressive rookie season, scoring 40 points. On the bad Czech side, Rostislav Olesz got injured and had a terrible season - Olesz seems to have made little progress since coming into the league and is now being paid 3.125 million. He could be trade bait for a team who loses out in free agency - the free agent market is weakest at center.

Can They Re-Sign Bouwmeester? The money's there, but the interest from Bouwmeester may not be. It is generally true that in a salary capped league, a player is most likely to sign with his current team than any given team - that team has already allotted the salary for him in the first place. It is not true, however, that the Panthers would be a favorite over the rest of the NHL to retain Bouwmeester - he has likely heard his last growl.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Booth-Weiss-Horton
Stillman-Frolik-?
McLean-Olesz-Campbell
Tarnasky-Kreps-Stewart

Ballard-?
McCabe-?
Eminger-Allen

Vokoun
?

Any Young Players? The Panthers' AHL affiliate finished 29-43-8 and has little of value to offer the Panthers.

Free Agent Discussion

Money Under The Cap: 13.3 million
Money Likely to Be Spent: 8.3 million
Spots to Fill: 4

The Panthers were recently bought by something called Sports Properties Acquisitions, a Delillo-ian and faceless owner if there's ever been one. Sports Properties Acquisitions is a publicly-held company, so this isn't going to be a consortium looking to win at any cost - it's looking to make a profit at any cost.

Right Wings

Erik Cole (3/11) - Cole and Olesz together could be a physical force, but there is some risk signing Erik Cole, who is coming off a subpar season, is 30, and has had career-threatening injuries in his career. Of course, this was true of Gary Roberts in 1997 and he went on to play 12 more years.

Chad Larose (3/9) - Larose is a good player to have, but is likely to be overcompensated for a superlative playoff.
Jason Williams (2/5) - Williams always scores points wherever he goes, but it's hard to find what else he brings to a team.
Ales Kotalik (2/5) - Ales Kotalik is 30 years old? He's a placeholder type - he's got a big shot, he can theroetically play the point on a power play, and you know what you get with him.
Maxim Afinogenov (1/2) - Make good deal for the Russian born without hands. Afinogenov is an exciting player who unfortunately lacks finish - he is much more likely to go to the KHL than to stay in the NHL, but some team might be willing to gamble that he regains his 06-07 form.

Defense

The Florida Panthers will no doubt be looking at the Bouwmeester-Komisarek-Beauchemin-Ohlund-Spacek group written about in the Dallas Stars post.

However, for their depth, they need someone else. There's lots of other guys they might look at, but here's three of the most likely names:

Nick Boynton (3/7) - Boynton knows the system and was a +7 last season.
Karlis Skrastins (2/4) - Skrastins is a shotblocking master who gives solid defensive minutes.
Christian Backman (2/2) - Backman is a reclamation project - somehow he got paid 3+ million dollars last season. Supposedly he can help with a power play, he's the kind of choice a financially strapped organization makes.

Goalies

Like Indiana Jones said to Sanjay in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade: 'No backup goalies'. Tomas Vokoun has been injured in two of the last four seasons he's played, so Florida will need to find someone who won't torpedo the season starting 20 or 25 games.

Conclusion: The Florida Panthers have to start over again - Jay Bouwmeester is likely gone and there is no replacing him. Their team has some intriguing pieces, but ultimately they lack depth and don't have any in the minor league system. It's hard to see them becoming good, but it's also difficult to see them becoming bad. They should continue to stay between the 15th and 25th best team in the NHL.

The Edmonton Oilers - How NOT To Be Seen (in the playoffs)

2009-06-08T06:34:00.000-07:00

(Editor's Note: Detroit should be here, but the Stanley Cup Finals have yet to conclude and the remaining two games may influence what Detroit does in the off-season.)

Edmonton Oilers Prolegomena - Penned In

Brian Burke still has night sweats about August 2nd, 2007 - Kevin Lowe signed his rookie left-wing Dustin Penner to a 5 year, 21.25 million dollar deal, setting off a public feud that has yet to officially end. Burke's Ducks would receive a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in compensation, and the rest of the league earned a lot of articles about how much Burke and Lowe dislike each other. The deal is now looked at as a sad joke - Penner has scored 40 goals in his two seasons in Edmonton and his name is synonymous with 'bust'. Ex-coach Craig MacTavish called him weak, out of shape, a slack-jawed f*ggot, and who knows what he called him behind closed doors. Looking back, could this deal have made sense at the time?

Dustin Penner's career is beyond strange. He never played junior hockey. In 2001-02, hockey-reference lists him playing in something called the NJCAA at something called MSU-Bottineau. As all of you know, this is Minot State University-Bottineau, in the town of Bottineau, North Dakota, pop. 2336, approximately ten miles from the Canada-US border. Not many people could have expected Dustin Penner to be winning a Stanley Cup five years later. Penner transferred to the University of Maine in 2003, where he was 7th in scoring. Ducks scouts must have noticed something in him, because he signed with the Ducks after just one collegiate season. His pro debut was inauspicious; he notched 10 goals in 77 games. It was the next season where Penner's career absolutely exploded - he scored 39 goals in 54 minor league games and added 54 assists on top. He also managed a beastly 251 shots on goal, or 4.64 shots per game - only Alex Ovechkin had more than that in the NHL this year. Penner's performance earned him a shot on the big club later in the season, where he impressed in the playoffs as a 23 year old willing to hit anything that moved. Next season he scored 29 goals in the NHL with limited ice time, and helped the Ducks to their first Stanley Cup - although in the playoffs his numbers in the playoffs are decidedly average, only tallying 3 goals in 21 games. It was known that Burke was going to have trouble re-signing him in the off-season, and Brian was twiddling his thumbs when Lowe swooped in with his outrageous offer.

The question is - could Kevin Lowe have expected Penner to repeat that extraordinary AHL performance in the NHL? If Penner manages to get 4 shots on goal per game in the NHL, he's at least a 30 goal scorer. However, Penner did manage to generate 2.49 shots/game in 2006-07 for the Ducks, while only receiving 2:55/game of power play time and 14 minutes per game overall. What if those increased to 4 minutes/game of power play time (consistent with the top LWs in the game) and 18 minutes of ice time? Assuming an average rate, this works out to 3.20 shots/game, assuming a shooting percentage between 10 and 12 (say, 11), this is still only 29 goals - the same 29 goals Penner scored in 2006-07. Kevin Lowe must have assumed that Penner would get better, that his shots/time on ice would increase in the NHL as well, but how much better can a player get than posting 84 points in 57 minor league games as a 23 year old?

A deal like this is strange - for it to be advatangeous to Edmonton, Dustin Penner has to essentially beat out the value that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks might've provided. Think of it this way: if Penner scores, say, 35 goals in his first season in Edmonton, he provides $X in value to the Edmonton Oilers above the 4.25 million dollar cap hit. That $X over the course of his career has to be greater than the potential $Y that players on entry-level contracts can provide, plus the $Z that RFA players provide over UFA players. In other words, Penner's value above his contract price has to be better than both comparable UFA players and the value that rookies might've added to the Oilers. What makes this more interesting is that the better Penner performs, the better his team does, and thus the lower in the draft the Ducks select. Of course, Penner hasn't even come close to making up for his contract, on the open market he would likely fetch something like 3 million/season now.

The Oilers should understand the danger of presuming - Dustin Penner looks like a magnificently talented hockey player, he can make ferocious hits, he's got tremendous straight-ahead speed, and he's got some hands around the net. Watching him in 2006-07 and looking at those stats, one thought of Neely and Lindros and Leclair - truth is, he's a slightly worse Erik Cole (or is he - advanced statistics are highly favorable towards him), and Edmonton is going to have a hell of a time relieving themselves of that contract.

Edmonton Cap Situation

Man, I Have No Idea What's Going On: It's no surprise that you can't spell 'Towelie' without the letters 'LOWE', because Kevin Lowe also has no idea what's going on. He's already got at least 44 million committed to next year's team, a team that's missed the playoffs the last two seasons. The most goals any current Oiler has scored in a season is 29 goals, by Penner. Put another way, Sheldon Souray had 26 goals in a season, that ranks second in most goals scored in a season by a current member of the Oilers. This team has literally no wiggle room for 2010-11 either - there's room to add a goalie and that's about all.

What About Gagner and Cogliano: Both look to be solid young players, but neither really built on their freshman season. That's not to say they are plateauing, just that for Edmonton's sake they'd better get better. Gagner has yet to turn 20 - it may be several years before he is a star player.

Isn't Lowe Working on an Unlevel Playing Field, Though? To be fair, after Chris Pronger left Edmonton because his wife didn't like it, the city is perceived to be somewhat like Siberia - it's not somewhere players voluntarily go, it's somewhere they get assigned. This forces Lowe's hand to try to lock up his current players, because there's no guarantee if they escape that he can lure anyone else to the Fortress of Solitude that is Northern Alberta.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Nilsson
Moreau-Coligano-Pisani
Reddox-Brodziak-Stortini

Visnovsky-Gilbert
Grebeshkov-Souray
Smid-Staios

?
Drouin-Deslauriers

Trades/Non-Tenders

The Oilers will no doubt pursue a trade this off-season. With Nilsson and Penner overcompensated, they may try to move either one for virtually air to free themselves up to sign other players. They may also try to move Sheldon Souray - he is injury-prone and is not the best player in the defensive zone. Denis Grebeshkov may be non-tendered or he may also go play in the KHL.

Free Agent Discussion

Goalies

Martin Biron (4/16) - Biron has posted save percentages of .918 and .915 in the last two seasons, and he thinks he should be paid like a top goaltender. It remains to be seen whether he will be.
Dwayne Roloson (2/5) - Roloson also had a .915 save percentage, he's getting on in years but seemed to have a little comeback last season. A worthwhile place holder.
Nikolai Khabibulin (2/5) - It's unknown whether Khabibulin will stay here or depart for the KHL, as he was rumored to before last season, but he has a Cup ring and a .919 save percentage last season.
Craig Anderson (2/3) - Anderson is a gambler's choice - .911 career save percentage, .928 as a member of the Panthers. Is he a worthwhile starter in the NHL? It should be a team like Edmonton that tries to find out.

Conclusion: Edmonton proves the old adage about a fool and his money. Admittedly, it is not high on NHL players' favorite cities to play, but Lowe has painted his team into a corner where they are not very good, and they don't have much hope of getting better. Edmonton is also a cautionary tale about teams who have unexpected playoff success - their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006 was one of the more unlikely in postseason history, but to Lowe it was the near-zenith of a grand plan that was so smart that he could articulate it if he could even begin to know what he was talking about. As a result, Lowe has been locking up the members of that team to long-term deals as though they were incredibly special, when most of them are average for their position. Edmonton is another franchise caught in a holding pattern - they've chained themselves to an average team: one that should compete for the playoffs some seasons and will fall out of the playoff race in other seasons. We won't be hearing many a capella renditions of Oh Canada in the Stanley Cup Finals in the near-future.

The Dallas Stars - A Nieuw Day

2009-06-07T09:03:00.000-07:00

Dallas Stars Prolegomena - An Exploration Of Shooting Percentage

Loui Eriksson scored on 20.2% of his shots last season, the second highest percentage in the NHL. Rookie James Neal scored on 14% of his shots. Fabian Brunnstrom scored on 21.0% of his shots, but did not qualify for the shooting % title. Is this good for a team over the long run?

The best passers should inflate a team's shooting percentage, should they not? A pass is attempted in any instance when the passer thinks the player he is passing to has a greater chance of scoring a goal (or making a play leading to a goal) than he does himself. Let's look at the best passers in the NHL, the top 10 centers in assists in the league last season, and see how his wingers tend to perform. Since it's very difficult to know who played with whom, some educated guesses will be made. Listed here are the player's wing, their shooting percentage this season, with their shooting percentage over their career in parenthesis.

Evgeni Malkin - Petr Sykora, 13.9% (11.7%), Ruslan Fedotenko 13.6% (13.5%)

Sidney Crosby - Miro Satan 14.2% (14.0%), Pascal Dupuis 8.3% (8.9%), Chris Kunitz 17.9% (12.0%), Bill Guerin 11.1% (11.8%)

Ryan Getzlaf - Bobby Ryan 17.8% (17.1%), Corey Perry 11.3% (11.7%)

Nicklas Backstrom - Alexander Ovechkin 10.6% (12.2%), Viktor Kozlov 8.5% (8.9%)

Pavel Datsyuk - Marian Hossa 13.0% (13.0%), Tomas Holmstrom 18.7% (16.6%)

Marc Savard - Milan Lucic 17.5% (13.5%), Phil Kessel 15.5% (10.7%)

Joe Thornton - Patrick Marleau 15.1% (14.4%), Devin Setoguchi 12.6% (12.0%)

Henrik Sedin - Daniel Sedin 10.9% (11.9%), Alexandre Burrows 16.0% (11.9%)

Mike Ribeiro - Loui Eriksson 20.2% (14.9%), Steve Ott 14.4% (9.4%)

David Krejci - Michael Ryder 14.6% (12.6%), Chuck Kobasew 16.3% (12.6%)

In all, these wingers cumulatively were +36.7 percentage points above their career shooting percentage. Now this seems really basic and almost begging the question - of course players who have a lot of assists are going to be setting up a lot of goals, and it's only natural that players are going to have better setups when they're having these guys passing them the puck. However, this revelation is important in the context of the salary cap - a player scoring more goals than he 'should' is going to be overpaid in arbitration or otherwise in relation to his talent level, and having excellent centers is a good way to get overpriced wingers. The Dallas Stars have some terrific young wingers in Loui Eriksson and James Neal, but by playing with Brad Richards and Mike Ribeiro, they may force the Stars to spend less on free agents knowing these guys have to get paid. A look at their salary cap situation, Vanna:

Ha-Ha! Yes, that's right, Nelson Muntz, the Stars have a nearly 2 million dollar cap hit thanks to Sean Avery. You might even say those are sloppy seconds.

2010 Looks Brutal For the Stars: The Stars will only have 5 players actually signed in 2010, but thanks to the inflationary powers of Ribeiro and Richards, Loui Eriksson and James Neal will likely get sizable raises. The Stars will spend an estimated $31 million dollars on 10 players, leaving between 19 and 23 million for the remaining 10 to 13 players. With between 12 and 16.7 million dollars to in cap space, the Stars can certainly afford to add some players this season, but they cannot go hog-wild (also known as Sathering).

What of Jere Lehtinen and Sergei Zubov? Sergei Zubov is probably the most underrated player of this current generation and had he played in the 1980s he would've been a lock Hall of Famer. He also turns 39 in a month and has played 56 out of his team's last 164 games. If he is willing to come back for cheap, the Stars should bring him back, but he simply cannot be signed for more than $2 million - there's no guarantee he's going to be any good even if he is healthy. Same deal with Jere Lehtinen - he's going to be 36 and he's played in just over half his team's games the past two seasons. New GM Joe Nieuwendyk might have some sentimentality for his former teammates - for the Stars, it should be out with the old, in with the nucleus. They've got a solid group of players without the oldsters, and although they missed the playoffs last season, that was in part due to Marty Turco's complete breakdown at the beginning of the year.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Morrow-Ribeiro-?
Eriksson-Richards-Neal
Ott-Modano-Brunnstrom
Sutherby-Peterson-Barch

Daley-?
Niskanen-Robidas
Grossman-?

Turco
?

Prospect Watch: As in, 'Watch, maybe someday we'll get some prospects.' The Stars haven't drafted higher than 25th since 1996, and they have traded their 1st round pick five times since 1996 - they tend to be one of the NHL's weakest teams in terms of young players. The Stars lacked an AHL affiliate last year, which caused them to do strange things like recalling Tom Wandell from Timra IK of the Swedish Elite League, then sending him back after four games. Forward Jamie Benn has promising stats in the WHL, but with no pro experience he's unlikely to get more than a look. Wandell and Raymond Sawada might be depth forwards, but their pro numbers are unimpressive. On the backline, defenseman Ivan Vishnevskiy got a cup of coffee with the big club last season, but he's probably at least a year off. The Stars do hold the 8th overall pick in this year's draft; the player selected will immediately become their top prospect.

Free Agent Discussion

Total Money Available (Estimated): 16.7 million
Holes to Fill: 4

Major Team Problems: Both the power play and penalty kill ranked in the lower third in the NHL. The penalty kill may fix itself if Turco gets himself right, but the power play clearly needs some help - without Sergei Zubov, there's not really an adequate power play point man.

Right Wings

Marian Hossa (7/49) - It is hard to believe the Stars missed out on Hossa last off-season, but they spent their money on Brad Richards at the trade deadline, then added Sean Avery instead. Hossa makes this a Stars team to be reckoned with. He would also make things insanely difficult for the club in 2010-11 when it came to re-signing all their UFAs - they'd be committed to around 38.5 million to 11 players.
Marian Gaborik (4/24) - Gaborik's one of the best pro-rated scorers in the league when healthy, and he plays on a rotten offensive team. There's no telling what he could do on an uptempo team with a solid playmaking center and a great medical staff.
Martin Havlat (5/27.5) - Havlat is a lesser Gaborik who stays a little healthier, and he's got more playoff experience.

Alexei Kovalev (3/15) - Kovalev has more experience than any of these players, he's got a Stanley Cup ring, and he can work a power play point quite effectively. He also leads the league in Fans Throwing Their Hands Up Per 60 Minutes. Signing him means activating the dreaded 35-and-older clause, where a team takes a cap hit on a 35 or older player even if he is shipped to the minors or retires. This is a large risk to take with a player whose commitment to the game has been questioned in multiple cities.
Brian Gionta (4/15) - Shopping at the bargain aisle here - Gionta's up and down career since the lockout might turn some teams off, but he's got hands around the net, when he can manage to get himself open there.

Defensemen

Jay Bouwmeester (7/52) - There was speculation when Nieuwendyk was hired that Bouwmeester will be in Dallas next season - the two are former teammates. The money is not quite there for him, but Dallas may attempt to sign him anyway.
Mike Komisarek (5/25) - In the 'we have to sign someone' vein that Dallas has too-often pursued, Komisarek is a big defenseman who will punish people. He's also a big defenseman whom people will overrate - if history is any guide, Komisarek will get paid at least $4 million per season, and $5 million is certainly not outrageous.
Mattias Ohlund (4/18) - Ohlund moves the puck reasonably well and plays defense reasonably well. He's not Zubov, but the only player comparable to Zubov is Bouwmeester.
Johnny Oduya (4/16) - More of a gamble here, Oduya's clearly got skills, he's a +48 over the last two seasons, but he hasn't shown he can QB a power play.
Francois Beauchemin (4/16) - The Stars have seen lots of him over the years - maybe they like him, maybe they don't. Falling point totals and injury last season has to be a concern.

Lower-Tier Defensemen

Paul Mara (2/5) - Mara's never going to be the puck-mover who scored 47 points for the Coyotes in 05-06, but there's remnants of that player left - he's willing to throw hits and he can QB a 2nd power play unit.
Dennis Seidenberg (2/5) - Seidenberg is more of a smooth skater finesse type, but he can also QB a power play.

Marc-Andre Bergeron (2/3.2) - Big shot might help out power play, although he's a liability at even strength.
Cory Murphy (2/2.5) - Murphy lit it up in his brief time in Tampa Bay, notching 15 points in 25 games, and while he's very similar to Andrew Hutchinson, he has more upside - he can certainly help with Dallas's ketchup problem.

Goalies

The Stars need a backup, but again, this blog is not going to look at seventeen backup goalies. Their backup of last year, Tobias Stephan, was dreadful, posting a 3.70 GAA and .870 save percentage. That's simply unacceptable in the NHL - improving at backup goalie has to be a priority. An upgrade here could mean a win or two, plus more rest for Turco, who despite his poor season managed to play in 74 games.

Conclusion: The Stars have always been players in the free agent market, and with significant money coming off their cap, they can certainly go after the big names this off-season. They have enough money to possibly nab two big-time players, though that will put them in a bind next off-season. There are two basic strategies: go after a top defenseman this year when they are more plentiful, and hope to swipe a Kovalchuk or Nash next off-season. If the Stars take this tack, it likely means fighting it out with teams like St. Louis and Anaheim for a playoff berth. Alternatively, they may also try to sew up all their holes in one off-season, banking on a return to the playoffs this year. With Mike Modano's contract expiring in July of 2010, it's more likely the Stars will go for it all this year, before players like Eriksson and Neal get prohibitively expensive and before the Stars' franchise scoring leader retires or becomes obsolete. Dallas missed the playoffs last year, but they should be right in the hunt next season; in the far future, though, their lack of a farm system will doom them to oscillating between missing and making the playoffs.