The Detroit Red Wings - A Day Late And Now A Dollar Short

Detroit Prolegomena - Taking A Cue From the Islanders

One would think that the most successful franchise of the last 15 years would not emulate the least successful franchise over that span, but the salary cap is, as Chris Farley put it in Dirty Work, an odd duck. The facts, however, are plain: The Detroit Red Wings, as well as other clubs, have decided that extremely long-term contracts are beneficial both for players and teams. The Islanders were the first to hit upon this idea, signing promising young goalie Rick DiPietro to a 15 year deal, a deal that prompted howls of laughter from journalists around the hockey world. Rick's injury trouble and poor play have kept the laughter unbroken, but the idea has legs; since then, four players have signed incredibly long-term deals, two of them Red Wings. GM Ken Holland signed Henrik Zetterberg to a 12 year/72 million dollar pact and Johan Franzen to an 11 year/44 million dollar deal. Both happened during the season, which suggests that this stellar negotiator was responsible.

Buoying these deals are two one-million dollar seasons for Franzen and Zetterberg at the very ends of the contract - Franzen will be 38, Zetterberg 39 when these million dollar seasons kick in. Each will of course still have their full cap hit for these seasons. It is difficult to imagine either of these players actually playing these seasons - but the deals are truly brilliant in two senses. First, Zetterberg and Franzen receive almost all of their money in the first seasons of the deal, but thanks to these two seasons at the end of each, their cap hit is reduced throughout the contract. Furthermore, when their cap hit begins to exceed their salary by a great deal (and likely their performance too), they will only be making $1 million per season, and will probably retire instead of playing for that sum. If they do want to play out their entire contract, odds are that Ken Holland will be forced to demote them to the minor leagues - in 2019/20, Franzen and Zetterberg will be making 2 million dollars, but taking up 10 million dollars of the Wings' cap. Now here's where the magic comes in: someone will almost certainly acquire them if they get waived! The league will always have a few sickly franchises that would prefer to have a large cap hit for a small amount of performance, if that cap hit happens to involve a low salary being paid out. Even if not: Detroit's economy is unstable, and if the city never recovers, it's possible that the Red Wings would no longer be a top spending NHL squad. As a result, Zetterberg and Franzen's contracts might stay on the books, providing a money-saving solution for a frugal team. Any way you slice these contracts, Ken Holland came out way ahead; even if both Zetterberg and Franzen develop injury problems later in their careers, he's managed to keep together as much of an NHL dynasty as possible in this salary cap era, and has ensured that the Red Wings will remain near the head of the pack in the NHL for the near-future.

Detroit Salaries

Do People Really Think Hossa Can Come Back? Michael Farber of SI reported that Hossa had signed a long-term deal that would not be reported until the end of the season. However, the team already has 57 million in salary committed for next season, and they lack a backup goalie. It would be a major stretch to think that the Wings could afford Hossa - Hossa is likely gone to the highest bidder.

Are All The Red Wing Players Idiots? The Red Wings seem to underpay all of their players, and beyond that, they get them to agree to money up front deals, e.g. Kris Draper. Draper has a cap hit of 1.583 million but in 2010/11 his actual salary will only be 1.2 million. It's likely that he's no longer a Red Wing in 2010/11, either playing for some minor league team or a team not particularly interested in winning.

Will Lidstrom Retire In A Year? Only Nicklas Lidstrom knows that - but playing the playoffs with a ruptured testicle might influence his decision. Lidstrom has been rumored to return to Sweden since he stepped into the league almost 20 years ago. If he retires, regardless of what the Wings fill that hole with, it will not be as good as Nicklas Lidstrom, who certainly has a case for being the NHL's greatest defenseman of all time behind Bobby Orr.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Holmstrom-Datsyuk-Leino
Zetterberg-Hudler-Cleary
Franzen-Filppula-Helm
Maltby-Draper-Abdelkader

Lidstrom-Rafalski
Stuart-Kronwall
Ericsson-Lebda

Osgood
?

None Of Those Players Are Right Wings: No, they aren't. The Wings are almost certain to lose Mikael Samuelsson and the aforementioned Hossa. The Wings always have an answer to everything so they will no doubt be able to train Darren Helm to shoot right-handed and it will be an improvement.

Okay, But Seriously: It's unclear how the Wings solve this problem. They can certainly move players to the off-wing, but which ones?

Trades

The Wings likely have to make a cost-cutting move somewhere. The most obvious would be Brad Stuart, a player that has been overrated since his selection as the 3rd overall pick in 1998. Stuart was compared to Scott Stevens, but this year he played more like Kevin Stevens after being caught with a prostitute. He clearly has skills but isn't worth the $3.75 million/season the Wings are paying him. Jiri Hudler could also be shipped out, as he is due for a large raise and is arbitration-eligible - with centers in high demand throughout the NHL, Hudler could net a team's best or second-best prospect in return.

Free Agent Discussion

With the Wings lacking money, they really can't afford to sign anyone. Tomas Kopecky could be brought back, but that is about all, barring some massive unforseen trade. The Wings require a backup goalie - they may promote prospect Jimmy Howard, or find someone who can capably play goal for around a million dollars a year.

Conclusion: The Red Wings are the league's best drafters, and as a result they usually have the best team. Even with their brutal Stanley Cup Finals loss, they will still be the favorites to win it all next year. The young players they have now don't look to have the upside of a Datsyuk or Zetterberg, but they will be solid 2nd and 3rd line contributors in a few years time. The only thing that could slow down the Wings' reign of terror is if Lidstrom retires - his retirement will expose Brian Rafalski and severely weaken what has traditionally been the best defensive corps in hockey. Regardless, the Wings will almost certainly be one of the NHL's best teams for the next five years at the very least - it's hard to imagine them not winning another Stanley Cup in that time.

The Nashville Predators - Playoffs, No Way

(Editor's Note: I will be giving the Predators, Islanders, Coyotes, and possibly the Lightning a very brief treatment. I am lagging behind.)

Predators Cap Situation

2009-10 Projected Lines

Erat-Arnott-Dumont
?-Legwand-?

Jones-?-Tootoo
Pihlstrom-Smithson-Belak

Weber-Suter
Hamhuis-?
?-Klein

Rinne
Ellis

Future Watch: Patric Hornqvist should almost certainly win the 2nd line RW job. Colin Wilson had a stellar sophomore season at BU, leading the team in points. Cal O'Reilly has been a terrific assist man for Milwaukee and might finally crack the roster next season.

Free Agent Discussion

Money Available: 10.5 million
Holes to fill: 5

Who Nashville will look at: Nothing fancy, of course. They might get a Jordan Leopold sort of player for defense, along with a 'minutes-eater' type. Up front, re-signing Steve Sullivan is certainly a possibility. Nashville will not break the bank and is unlikely to acquire anything exciting.

Outlook: Nashville barely missed the playoffs but had a negative goal differential. They are a stellar drafting team but due to budget issues they gambled on Peter Forsberg and lost and are still paying the price for losing that deal. As long as Nashville continues to draft and find talent the way they have these last few seasons, they will be a team that is on the cusp of making the playoffs. Without more money put in the team, however, they are unlikely to do any damage once they get there.

The Montreal Canadiens - The World And Everything In It

Montreal Prolegomena - Hueting For Price?

In February of 2008, GM Bob Gainey made a trade that shocked the NHL - he sent veteran goaltender Cristobal Huet to the Washington Capitals for a 2nd round pick in 2009. Price followed up that trade by posting a .934 save percentage down the stretch for the Habs. He then proceeded to post a .901 save percentage in the playoffs which led to much criticism of Gainey - how could he pull out the rug from under his young goaltender? And how did he not even manage to get anything of use in return for the player who led the league in save percentage in 2005-06?

First of all, the above assumes an optimal use of goaltenders. That is, that the coach will automatically realize when his young goaltender is struggling. This may not be the case. Second, 'pulling the rug out' from under Price can be read another way - that Bob Gainey is making it emphatically clear that Carey Price is the goaltender of the Canadiens for the present and the future. Keeping Huet around as a safety blanket is an intriguing proposition, but could ultimately stunt Price - once the veteran is no longer around, will he feel comfortable? It may be best to yank that comfort out; Price now MUST play well, and he must succeed.

Gainey may have been guilty of looking to the past - Patrick Roy and Ken Dryden won Stanley Cups as rookies, why not Carey Price? However, he turned the pick he received for Huet into an asset for this year's team by dealing it for Mathieu Schneider. When your team makes the playoffs by the skin of their teeth, adding a guy who had 17 points in 23 games could not have hurt.

Montreal Cap Situation

Former Habs: Alexei Kovalev, Saku Koivu, Alex Tanguay, and Mike Komisarek are four of the biggest names headed for unrestricted free agency. Given Kovalev's issues with Montreal, he is likely gone, although one never knows. Saku Koivu has been less-than-impressive - his injuries are perhaps catching up with him. Tanguay is the sort of player who signs for someone who absolutely doesn't need him and isn't any better with him. Komisarek is sure to be vastly overpaid by someone who sees a 6'6" defender who plays physical - the Habs will likely let him go.

Projected Lines 2009-10

?-?-A. Kostitsyn

Plekanec-Higgins-D'Agostini
S. Kostitsyn-Lapierre-Latendresse
?-Metropolit-Laraque

Hamrlik-Markov
?-?
Gorges-O'Byrne

Price
Halak

Trades

The Montreal Canadiens should certainly explore trades this off-season, and it will be shocking if they don't complete any. Having been often rejected as a free agent destination - both Patrik Elias and Daniel Briere turned down more money from Montreal to sign where they did - the Canadiens have an excess of young talent and a ton of room under the salary cap. They can easily be a recepticle for overpriced contracts. Daniel Briere and Vincent Lecavalier are sure to be the two biggest names thought to be heading for Le Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge - those names are somewhat unlikely, but someone like Simon Gagne is certainly a possibility. However, with a dearth of centers available in free agency, the Habs may be poised to add one via trade this off-season.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 27.6 million
Spots to Fill: 5

The free agent discussion on Montreal can be so extensive that it's not going to be extensive at all. Montreal can sign anyone. They should get one of Havlat, Gaborik, or Hossa. They should nab one of Beauchemin, Spacek, Ohlund, Komisarek, or Oduya. They may have trouble filling the center spot - that's where the trade comes in. Mats Sundin is at least a remote possibility for Montreal if he plays in the NHL again.

Conclusion: Montreal is incredibly well set up to at least be a force in the playoffs next season. While the team broke down to end the season, it is a very young team, and a bounceback should be anticipated. The Habs should be able to replace what they are losing in free agents with fresh blood, and while it might take time to congeal, they've got what it takes to be a perennial playoff team for years to come.

The Minnesota Wild - It's Easy To Forget About Them All Tucked Away Down There

(Editor's Note: No introduction on this one. I am going to try to cut down on the introductions, otherwise I will likely not be able to finish all 30 teams.)

Minnesota Cap Situation

Cap Health: The Wild have an excellent salary cap situation, with over 10 million dollars of room this year, and almost 20 million next year.

How'd Minnesota Do Last Year, I Wasn't Paying Attention: Minnesota finished in 9th place in the Conference. They were a below-average offense but well-above-average defense. Their best forward sat out most of the year. They actually had an above-average power play too - their 5 on 5 play was what kept them out of the playoffs.

But Then They Fired Everyone: Minnesota hired assistant Pittsburgh GM Chuck Fletcher to be their general manager, after dispatching the only GM in their history, Doug Risebrough. Fletcher is well known, for, uh, helping to pick Sidney Crosby 1st overall. Or maybe it was picking Evgeni Malkin 2nd overall. Well, he's probably a great guy, and regardless he has to be better than Risebrough, who violated the 'Take Only Pictures and Leave Only Footprints' commandment by leaving Fletcher a ludicrously overpaid goalie.

What Was Risebrough's Strategy, Anyway? It's hard to tell - the man clearly deserved his firing. It seemed to be piling up overpriced free agents without many special skills. Signing Nick Schultz to a deal comparable with Willie Mitchell, Jay McKee, and all the other overpriced D-only players around the league also seems foolish. Mark Parrish was a particularly stinky signing who will affect the Wild's cap until 2013-14.

Where's Dan Fritsche, He's An RFA? Dan Fritsche clearly has skills, but he's not worth an $850,000 qualifying offer. Odds are that he will be non-tendered.

2009-10 Projected Lines

This indicates a player RFA in 2008-09
This indicates a player UFA in 2009-10
This indicates a player RFA in 2009-10

?-Koivu-Nolan
Brunette-Bouchard-Miettinen
Pouliot-Belanger-Clutterbuck
Boogaard-Sheppard-Gillies

Johnsson-Burns
Zidlicky-Schultz
?-?

Backstrom
Harding

The Future? Nothing on the horizon. The young players for Minnesota are already in their lineup.

Trades

Dan Fritsche: Non-tendering him might be a little harsh for a 24 year old, but the Wild have too many young forwards like him, and he did not impress in his brief time in Minnesota. Someone else may want to take a shot at this depth forward. The Wild may look to trade some of their younger, inexpensive players for contracts that more wealthy teams need taken off their hands - Simon Gagne could be a Wild player next season, for instance.

Free Agent Discussion

Money To Spend: 12.7 million
Money Likely To Be Spent: 10 million
Holes To Fill: 3

Left Wing

Marian Gaborik (7/45) - They got rid of the coach whom he supposedly didn't like - is that enough to keep Gaborik in Minnesota? There's not many other places for him, except for one which players tend not to go to. Gaborik is a legitimate finisher, something the Wild desperately need, he is a 50 goal man when healthy.
Martin Havlat (6/36) - Havlat fulfills the Wild's a great deal less than Gaborik - Havlat has 169 goals in 470 career games, which works out to 29 per 82 games. He's not a pure finisher like Gaborik. He can play left wing and has top-line skills, something which the Wild decidedly lack.
Mike Knuble (2/6.2) - Knuble would fulfill the same role as Andrew Brunette, but it's not like redundancy has stopped the Wild in the past. Has 10+ PPG goals per season since the lockout.

Defense

Jordan Leopold (4/11.5) - Leopold is from Minnesota, he went to the University of Minnesota, and there's a need for a long-term puck-moving type guy.
Nick Boynton (3/7.5) - Boynton is a physical defender with some offensive skill - it's possible that someone remarkably overvalues him and pays him $3M+, but if not, there will remain a lot of interested parties.
Martin Skoula (2/4) - Skoula is one of those guys who doesn't really excel at anything but isn't terrible at anything either.
Marc-Andre Bergeron (2/3) - A liability at even strength, but who cares? That slapshot is awesome. Actually managed a +5 this year too.
Cory Murphy (2/2.75) - Murphy has power play skills but who knows how much else he has to offer?

Conclusion: Minnesota has a decent skeleton in place but if Gaborik departs and no one fills his place they lack top-end talent. The Backstrom contract is an unfortunate setback, but also the kind of thing that happens when a team has lots of money to spend. The Wild can put together a competitive team if they make the right moves in free agency, but right now they are in that middle of the pack in the Western Conference - there's Detroit, Chicago, and San Jose at the top, and then between Team 4 and Team 13 there's not a large difference right now. Ownership in Minnesota has never gotten that one star player besides Gaborik, but perhaps with Lemaire out of the way, they start to open the checkbook a bit. Signing Gaborik would be a step in the right direction for a franchise that besides one unlikely playoff run in 2003 has very little to show for its time in the NHL.

The Los Angeles Kings - A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats (But It Takes A Long Time)

Kings Prolegomena - A Taylor-Made Problem

Playoffs-or-else mandates are fine for coaches. That is, telling a coach that if he doesn't make the playoffs in a certain year he will be fired. He probably knows that anyway, and while it might have him riding a goalie or star player a little harder than he might normally, it's not going to change anything long-term. Playoffs-or-else mandates for general managers, on the other hand, can be disastrous and set franchises back years for the sake of one man's job. It is an inherently foolhardy strategy.

Let's not mince words: Dave Taylor got extraordinarily unlucky as GM of the Kings. He nabbed Adam Deadmarsh and Jason Allison as 2/3rds of a top line, and both players ended up suffering career-ending injuries. The Kings could have been a real force in the West early in the decade - certainly not a Cup winner, but one of those Carolina-type teams that goes on a deep run and gets the fans excited. In 2006, one year after the lockout, it appears he was given a playoffs-or-else mandate. He made a deal at the deadline: He traded Denis Grebeshkhov and Jeff Tambellini to Long Island for UFA to be Mark Parrish and Brent Sopel who had a year left on his deal. Now, Tambellini has really come to nothing - he's a peripheral NHL player. Grebeshkhov himself walked away from the Islanders to sign in Russia, and was later traded for Marc Andre Bergeron, but has now turned into a solid defender. The Kings really didn't get hurt by this deal, even though Parrish and Sopel are mediocre players. It's probably a good thing that Parrish walked away - he was since bought out by the Wild last off-season and it will be surprising if he has an NHL job. The problem is the thinking behind the deal - Grebeshkhov and Tambellini were recent Kings 1st round picks, and both were tossed away for two marginal talents.

Taylor had a young team returning to Los Angeles, but it was also surrounded it with veterans who may be on their last legs - Craig Conroy, Jeremy Roenick, and Luc Robitaille all suited up for the 2005-06 Kings. What emerged was a flaming wreck despite the good mix of vets and youth; Taylor forgot to acquire a goalie, and the goalies' cumulative .894 save percentage sunk the season, and he was fired. He's not the only GM to engage in this behavior in recent times.

The Atlanta Thrashers used this scorched earth policy as well - on the cusp of making the 2007 playoffs, they dealt young defender Braydon Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik, a trade that while not among the worst of all time is certainly among the worst of the last ten years. This flagrant disregard for the future was compounded by trading a 1st round pick for Keith Tkachuk, who left at the end of the year. Their 2nd round pick was traded for Vitali Vishnevski, a player whom they likely could've gotten for much cheaper had they waited. In the 2007 draft, Atlanta didn't pick until pick number 64, and for all their deadline wheeling and dealing they didn't even win a playoff game that year. Yet somehow, Don Waddell still has a job.

If you're a team president or team owner reading this, don't tell your general manager he has to make the playoffs or he will be fired. Don't even give him this sense. This will only hurt your franchise - you might make a little more money that season, if he does wrangle up enough veteran players to shove your team through, but ultimately your franchise will be much worse off. Dispatch him the old-fashioned way - make him believe his job is safe, then fire him on his birthday.

Los Angeles Cap Situation

Finally, A Team Smart About Goaltending: Ersberg and Quick had a combined .909 save percentage, which while not great, the Kings were still below league average in goals allowed. Only spending a combined 1.2 million dollars on goalies frees up plenty of money to do other things, money which the Kings didn't spend last season, but which they certainly can in the future.

Like What Other Things? It remains to be seen if the Kings will spend anything this off-season. They already have a full compliment of players signed, whether they want to demote some players who spent a year on the big club, or...

... Trade? Dany Heatley has requested a trade out of Ottawa, and Los Angeles seems to be most likely destination. With Jack Johnson not developing as planned, there are certainly a number of things that can be worked out. Heatley would make this club a playoff contender, but he may not be the best long-term option.

Dustin Brown is So Awesome: Dustin Brown drew 63 penalties last season - 20 more than the next-best penalty drawer (Evgeni Malkin). This is utterly incredible - 63 penalties drawn, at .2 goals per penalty, works out to be 12.5 goals for the Los Angeles Kings. Brown is the best player in the NHL that people don't know about - if the Kings get good, he's going to be a large part of why.

2009-10 Projected Lines

This is a player who is RFA in 2008-09
This is a player who is UFA in 2009-10
This is a player who is RFA in 2009-10

Frolov-Kopitar-Brown
?-Stoll-Williams
Purcell-Handzus-Simmonds
Ivanans-Richardson-Zeiler

Doughty-Quincey
Johnson-Greene
O'Donnell-Preissing

Quick
Ersberg

Players On The Horizon: Center Trevor Lewis scored 53 points in Manchester, he may be groomed to replace Handzus. Defenseman Vyacheslav Voinov came to the AHL as an 18 year old and put up solid-looking numbers for a player of that age - he is probably two or three years away, but there is definitely potential there. Thomas Hickey and Colton Teubert are two other d-prospects with excellent pedigree who should be threatening the LA roster in a year or two's time. Jonathan Bernier is a highly-regarded goaltending prospect.

Trades

Michal Handzus: The Kings seem to have excess depth - Center Oscar Moller played reasonably well in his first season, and Trevor Lewis is going to get his chance at the big squad. If the Kings do take on any big contracts in trade, this albatross is likely to go the other way. Handzus was 4th on the team in scoring, but he is big, slow, and injury-prone, three things that don't play well in the new NHL. Why the Kings signed him to a 16 million dollar/4 year deal coming off ACL surgery is a mystery.

Jack Johnson: Promising young defenseman has fallen behind Doughty on the depth chart, his NHL numbers to date are 120 games, 22 points, -42. He will likely be a solid player, but can Los Angeles keep waiting for him to break out with so many other defensive prospects in the pipeline? If they do, a solid trade chit might be reduced to nothing.

Teddy Purcell: Someone might take a flyer on this guy, who has put up ridiculous numbers in college and the AHL level.

Brian Boyle: He may be waiver fodder, but he could fetch a very small piece back. He cannot seem to get his game going at the NHL level.

Free Agent Discussion

Left Wing

Alex Tanguay (4/19) - Tanguay has a Stanley Cup ring and 98 games of playoff experience. He brings 20 goals and 40 assists at least - when he stays healthy, that is.
Mike Knuble (2/6.2) - Veteran LW/RW has scored at least 20 goals every year since 2003.

The market is thin on left wings - the Kings may simply choose to move Handzus to left wing, and to sign a third-line center or promote Trevor Lewis.

Conclusion: The Kings are a team that's saving money - whether they'll spend it is anyone's guess. They have a tremendous outlook for the future, especially if their bad contracts can go away and they can sign good contracts as they start to get better. This is likely not the year for the Kings to make the playoffs, but 2010-11 should provide opportunities to acquire players for cheap - it's time for GM Dean Lombardi to start taking advantage of teams that need to sell. This club looks like it's going to contend for a Stanley Cup in 3 or 4 years time - Kings fans have suffered through six seasons without the playoffs, and there's still some suffering ahead. Regardless, if Kings management can make the right maneuvers, there might be a Stanley Cup parade in downtown Los Angeles in the next decade.

The Florida Panthers - Rat Salad

Florida Panthers Prolegomena - Bouwing Out

The Florida Panthers decided not to deal star defenseman Jay Bouwmeester at the trade deadline this season - Bouwmeester had been the object of speculation since he signed his one-year deal in the summer. The Panthers then proceeded to fall out of the playoff race, finishing tied in points for 8th but losing on a tiebreaker to the Montreal Canadiens. Had they made it, it would have been their first playoff berth since 2000, and a step in the right direction for a franchise that has been floundering since Scott Mellanby left. It is expected that Bouwmeester will leave Florida this summer.

We can analyze their decision to not deal Bouwmeester by way of an equation. This equation will not be solved here, it is far too complicated with too many variables to solve, but the equation itself should illuminate the way front offices should (but too often do not) think. Jay Bouwmeester is a tremendous talent. At the time the deal was thought to be made, the Panthers were in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, 3 points ahead of Buffalo and Carolina. So, what would we need to figure out whether we should keep Jay Bouwmeester? First, let's take Bouwmeester's remaining salary over the season. That's 18/82 * 4.875, or 1.07 million. Let's now assume that either the Panthers receive a series of prospects who would not play on their NHL team this season, or players with around similar salary to Bouwmeester (e.g. the Flyers had no cap room and would have had to clear space for Bouwmeester). For now, we are going to focus on the prospects - the other trades would add more complications.

The Bouwmeester Equation

Initial Equation: We figure out the probability that the Panthers will make the playoffs with Jay Bouwmeester on the roster. We figure out the potential playoff profits with Jay Bouwmeester on the roster - how many home games the Florida Panthers can expect to have with him on the roster. We figure this out by way of probabilities, e.g. if the Panthers make the playoffs 75% of the time, 50% of the time they have 2 home games, 25% they have 3, 10% they have 5, 8% they have 6, 5% they have 9, etc. From this equation we derive the amount of profit the Florida Panthers can expect to have in this playoff year. We can look at it like this:

(Probability of Making the Playoffs With Bouwmeester * Playoff Profit) minus Bouwmeester's remaining salary.

Now we have to look at the team if it traded Bouwmeester, like so (Probability of Making The Playoffs Without Bouwmeester) * Playoff Profit Adjusted For No Bouwmeester), and compare the two numbers. If the latter is greater than the former, the Panthers should likely deal Bouwmeester.

However, the Panthers aren't trading him for nothing - they are trading him for assets who can supposedly help them in the future. We therefore have to add a future component to the equation. The revised equation looks like this:

((Probablity of making playoffs with Bouwmeester * Playoff Profit) Minus Bouwmeester's Remaining Salary)) >=< (Probablity of Making Playoffs without Bouwmeester * Adjusted Playoff Profit) + Y(Increased Chance Of Playoff Berth Next Season(Potential Playoff Profit) + Z(Increased Chance Of Playoff Berth in 2011(Potential Playoff Profit) + and so on, with the numbers diminishing or becoming irrelevant.

Y and Z are coefficients; they are some number less than 1 to represent the time value of money - the Panthers would obviously value making the playoffs this season over making the playoffs next season, all things being equal.

Solving this equation is impossible without much more research and what result we would get is just an educated guess. Regardless, this method, or at least this line of thinking, is incredibly important in a salary-capped league - the Panthers cannot just approach the question instinctually. Ultimately, they thought their chances this season were too great to possibly spoil them - the Panthers needed some playoff games to jumpstart their dwindling fanbase. They likely made the right decision not dealing Bouwmeester, but got unlucky that they could not close the deal and squeak into the post-season.

Florida Cap Situation

How Do Things Look? Michael Frolik had an impressive rookie season, scoring 40 points. On the bad Czech side, Rostislav Olesz got injured and had a terrible season - Olesz seems to have made little progress since coming into the league and is now being paid 3.125 million. He could be trade bait for a team who loses out in free agency - the free agent market is weakest at center.

Can They Re-Sign Bouwmeester? The money's there, but the interest from Bouwmeester may not be. It is generally true that in a salary capped league, a player is most likely to sign with his current team than any given team - that team has already allotted the salary for him in the first place. It is not true, however, that the Panthers would be a favorite over the rest of the NHL to retain Bouwmeester - he has likely heard his last growl.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Booth-Weiss-Horton
Stillman-Frolik-?
McLean-Olesz-Campbell
Tarnasky-Kreps-Stewart

Ballard-?
McCabe-?
Eminger-Allen

Vokoun
?

Any Young Players? The Panthers' AHL affiliate finished 29-43-8 and has little of value to offer the Panthers.

Free Agent Discussion

Money Under The Cap: 13.3 million
Money Likely to Be Spent: 8.3 million
Spots to Fill: 4

The Panthers were recently bought by something called Sports Properties Acquisitions, a Delillo-ian and faceless owner if there's ever been one. Sports Properties Acquisitions is a publicly-held company, so this isn't going to be a consortium looking to win at any cost - it's looking to make a profit at any cost.

Right Wings

Erik Cole (3/11) - Cole and Olesz together could be a physical force, but there is some risk signing Erik Cole, who is coming off a subpar season, is 30, and has had career-threatening injuries in his career. Of course, this was true of Gary Roberts in 1997 and he went on to play 12 more years.

Chad Larose (3/9) - Larose is a good player to have, but is likely to be overcompensated for a superlative playoff.
Jason Williams (2/5) - Williams always scores points wherever he goes, but it's hard to find what else he brings to a team.
Ales Kotalik (2/5) - Ales Kotalik is 30 years old? He's a placeholder type - he's got a big shot, he can theroetically play the point on a power play, and you know what you get with him.
Maxim Afinogenov (1/2) - Make good deal for the Russian born without hands. Afinogenov is an exciting player who unfortunately lacks finish - he is much more likely to go to the KHL than to stay in the NHL, but some team might be willing to gamble that he regains his 06-07 form.

Defense

The Florida Panthers will no doubt be looking at the Bouwmeester-Komisarek-Beauchemin-Ohlund-Spacek group written about in the Dallas Stars post.

However, for their depth, they need someone else. There's lots of other guys they might look at, but here's three of the most likely names:

Nick Boynton (3/7) - Boynton knows the system and was a +7 last season.
Karlis Skrastins (2/4) - Skrastins is a shotblocking master who gives solid defensive minutes.
Christian Backman (2/2) - Backman is a reclamation project - somehow he got paid 3+ million dollars last season. Supposedly he can help with a power play, he's the kind of choice a financially strapped organization makes.

Goalies

Like Indiana Jones said to Sanjay in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade: 'No backup goalies'. Tomas Vokoun has been injured in two of the last four seasons he's played, so Florida will need to find someone who won't torpedo the season starting 20 or 25 games.

Conclusion: The Florida Panthers have to start over again - Jay Bouwmeester is likely gone and there is no replacing him. Their team has some intriguing pieces, but ultimately they lack depth and don't have any in the minor league system. It's hard to see them becoming good, but it's also difficult to see them becoming bad. They should continue to stay between the 15th and 25th best team in the NHL.

The Edmonton Oilers - How NOT To Be Seen (in the playoffs)

(Editor's Note: Detroit should be here, but the Stanley Cup Finals have yet to conclude and the remaining two games may influence what Detroit does in the off-season.)

Edmonton Oilers Prolegomena - Penned In

Brian Burke still has night sweats about August 2nd, 2007 - Kevin Lowe signed his rookie left-wing Dustin Penner to a 5 year, 21.25 million dollar deal, setting off a public feud that has yet to officially end. Burke's Ducks would receive a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in compensation, and the rest of the league earned a lot of articles about how much Burke and Lowe dislike each other. The deal is now looked at as a sad joke - Penner has scored 40 goals in his two seasons in Edmonton and his name is synonymous with 'bust'. Ex-coach Craig MacTavish called him weak, out of shape, a slack-jawed f*ggot, and who knows what he called him behind closed doors. Looking back, could this deal have made sense at the time?

Dustin Penner's career is beyond strange. He never played junior hockey. In 2001-02, hockey-reference lists him playing in something called the NJCAA at something called MSU-Bottineau. As all of you know, this is Minot State University-Bottineau, in the town of Bottineau, North Dakota, pop. 2336, approximately ten miles from the Canada-US border. Not many people could have expected Dustin Penner to be winning a Stanley Cup five years later. Penner transferred to the University of Maine in 2003, where he was 7th in scoring. Ducks scouts must have noticed something in him, because he signed with the Ducks after just one collegiate season. His pro debut was inauspicious; he notched 10 goals in 77 games. It was the next season where Penner's career absolutely exploded - he scored 39 goals in 54 minor league games and added 54 assists on top. He also managed a beastly 251 shots on goal, or 4.64 shots per game - only Alex Ovechkin had more than that in the NHL this year. Penner's performance earned him a shot on the big club later in the season, where he impressed in the playoffs as a 23 year old willing to hit anything that moved. Next season he scored 29 goals in the NHL with limited ice time, and helped the Ducks to their first Stanley Cup - although in the playoffs his numbers in the playoffs are decidedly average, only tallying 3 goals in 21 games. It was known that Burke was going to have trouble re-signing him in the off-season, and Brian was twiddling his thumbs when Lowe swooped in with his outrageous offer.

The question is - could Kevin Lowe have expected Penner to repeat that extraordinary AHL performance in the NHL? If Penner manages to get 4 shots on goal per game in the NHL, he's at least a 30 goal scorer. However, Penner did manage to generate 2.49 shots/game in 2006-07 for the Ducks, while only receiving 2:55/game of power play time and 14 minutes per game overall. What if those increased to 4 minutes/game of power play time (consistent with the top LWs in the game) and 18 minutes of ice time? Assuming an average rate, this works out to 3.20 shots/game, assuming a shooting percentage between 10 and 12 (say, 11), this is still only 29 goals - the same 29 goals Penner scored in 2006-07. Kevin Lowe must have assumed that Penner would get better, that his shots/time on ice would increase in the NHL as well, but how much better can a player get than posting 84 points in 57 minor league games as a 23 year old?

A deal like this is strange - for it to be advatangeous to Edmonton, Dustin Penner has to essentially beat out the value that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks might've provided. Think of it this way: if Penner scores, say, 35 goals in his first season in Edmonton, he provides $X in value to the Edmonton Oilers above the 4.25 million dollar cap hit. That $X over the course of his career has to be greater than the potential $Y that players on entry-level contracts can provide, plus the $Z that RFA players provide over UFA players. In other words, Penner's value above his contract price has to be better than both comparable UFA players and the value that rookies might've added to the Oilers. What makes this more interesting is that the better Penner performs, the better his team does, and thus the lower in the draft the Ducks select. Of course, Penner hasn't even come close to making up for his contract, on the open market he would likely fetch something like 3 million/season now.

The Oilers should understand the danger of presuming - Dustin Penner looks like a magnificently talented hockey player, he can make ferocious hits, he's got tremendous straight-ahead speed, and he's got some hands around the net. Watching him in 2006-07 and looking at those stats, one thought of Neely and Lindros and Leclair - truth is, he's a slightly worse Erik Cole (or is he - advanced statistics are highly favorable towards him), and Edmonton is going to have a hell of a time relieving themselves of that contract.

Edmonton Cap Situation

Man, I Have No Idea What's Going On: It's no surprise that you can't spell 'Towelie' without the letters 'LOWE', because Kevin Lowe also has no idea what's going on. He's already got at least 44 million committed to next year's team, a team that's missed the playoffs the last two seasons. The most goals any current Oiler has scored in a season is 29 goals, by Penner. Put another way, Sheldon Souray had 26 goals in a season, that ranks second in most goals scored in a season by a current member of the Oilers. This team has literally no wiggle room for 2010-11 either - there's room to add a goalie and that's about all.

What About Gagner and Cogliano: Both look to be solid young players, but neither really built on their freshman season. That's not to say they are plateauing, just that for Edmonton's sake they'd better get better. Gagner has yet to turn 20 - it may be several years before he is a star player.

Isn't Lowe Working on an Unlevel Playing Field, Though? To be fair, after Chris Pronger left Edmonton because his wife didn't like it, the city is perceived to be somewhat like Siberia - it's not somewhere players voluntarily go, it's somewhere they get assigned. This forces Lowe's hand to try to lock up his current players, because there's no guarantee if they escape that he can lure anyone else to the Fortress of Solitude that is Northern Alberta.

2009-10 Projected Lines

Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky
O'Sullivan-Gagner-Nilsson
Moreau-Coligano-Pisani
Reddox-Brodziak-Stortini

Visnovsky-Gilbert
Grebeshkov-Souray
Smid-Staios

?
Drouin-Deslauriers

Trades/Non-Tenders

The Oilers will no doubt pursue a trade this off-season. With Nilsson and Penner overcompensated, they may try to move either one for virtually air to free themselves up to sign other players. They may also try to move Sheldon Souray - he is injury-prone and is not the best player in the defensive zone. Denis Grebeshkov may be non-tendered or he may also go play in the KHL.

Free Agent Discussion

Goalies

Martin Biron (4/16) - Biron has posted save percentages of .918 and .915 in the last two seasons, and he thinks he should be paid like a top goaltender. It remains to be seen whether he will be.
Dwayne Roloson (2/5) - Roloson also had a .915 save percentage, he's getting on in years but seemed to have a little comeback last season. A worthwhile place holder.
Nikolai Khabibulin (2/5) - It's unknown whether Khabibulin will stay here or depart for the KHL, as he was rumored to before last season, but he has a Cup ring and a .919 save percentage last season.
Craig Anderson (2/3) - Anderson is a gambler's choice - .911 career save percentage, .928 as a member of the Panthers. Is he a worthwhile starter in the NHL? It should be a team like Edmonton that tries to find out.

Conclusion: Edmonton proves the old adage about a fool and his money. Admittedly, it is not high on NHL players' favorite cities to play, but Lowe has painted his team into a corner where they are not very good, and they don't have much hope of getting better. Edmonton is also a cautionary tale about teams who have unexpected playoff success - their run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006 was one of the more unlikely in postseason history, but to Lowe it was the near-zenith of a grand plan that was so smart that he could articulate it if he could even begin to know what he was talking about. As a result, Lowe has been locking up the members of that team to long-term deals as though they were incredibly special, when most of them are average for their position. Edmonton is another franchise caught in a holding pattern - they've chained themselves to an average team: one that should compete for the playoffs some seasons and will fall out of the playoff race in other seasons. We won't be hearing many a capella renditions of Oh Canada in the Stanley Cup Finals in the near-future.